Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 19, 2022
This guy popped up after the trip to Saudi Arabia and has been spouting hypocrisies ever since. In this first segment, White House senior energy adviser Amos Hochstein, in charge of U.S. energy security, says the administration cannot accept or approve any long-term oil and gas development that undermines the urgency of the crisis they are exploiting.
Instead, Hochstein says U.S. energy producers should invest in oil and gas development that turns an immediate profit. [Pro-tip, that doesn’t exist.] Keeping the oil and gas industry in a perpetual state of shortage, overcapacity and expense, allows the “transition” to windmills and solar to remain urgent. Put another way, the energy crisis is part of the plan. WATCH:
Mr. Hochstein also appeared on Fox News this afternoon to claim that coal is the worst of the worst and must never be used again. When asked about Germany going back to coal to replace Russian gas, Hochstein says that’s a terrible plan. However, Hochstein was never confronted over the stupid part of his anxiety.
Germany is being forced to use coal because Biden/Hochstein have triggered energy sanctions against Russia that stopped the flow of natural gas. Germany is being forced to use the horrible coal because Biden/Hochstein is forcing them to.
In order for ideologues to retain their insane ideological positions, they must pretend not to know things. Unfortunately, we do not have a media that is capable of calling them out on the hypocrisy and challenging the weakness of their positions. Thus, the great pretending continues….
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 19, 2022
No doubt it was only the public pressure and ridicule against this activist Manhattan District Attorney that caused him to reverse course.
Facing intense public scrutiny for his ideological efforts, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg has dropped charges against the 61-year-old Latino bodega owner who defended himself against a violent attack by the black boyfriend of an angry customer.
The entire episode, including the ridiculous charges against Jose Alba, was fraught with racist undertones from the district attorney’s office.
NEW YORK – After intense backlash from local bodega workers and city tabloids, Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg on Tuesday dropped all charges against bodega clerk Jose Alba, who was allegedly acting in self-defense when he fatally stabbed a man who was attacking him.
The liberal DA’s decision comes after weeks of criticism of Bragg’s decision to send the 61-year-old to Riker’s Island and charge him with second-degree murder in the death of 35-year-old Austin Simon. Bragg first requested Alba’s bail be set at $500,000 before it was lowered to $50,000 in response to criticism from the community. He was later released on a $5,000 bail bond.
Video obtained by the New York Post seems to show Simon advancing on Alba at the bodega where Alba works and violently shoving him against a wall after his girlfriend’s credit card was rejected while trying to buy a bag of chips. Alba could be heard in the video trying to diffuse the situation as Simon walked behind the counter, saying, “Papa, I don’t want a problem, papa.”
While Alba initially tried to walk away from Simon after being shoved, video shows, a struggle between the two men ensued and Alba stabbed Simon repeatedly. The video seems to show Simon’s girlfriend pulling a knife from her purse and attempting to grab Alba’s arm as he stabbed her boyfriend. She then stabbed Alba.
Bragg’s office said Tuesday that “a homicide case against Alba could not be proven at trial beyond a reasonable doubt” after further investigation. (read more)
Posted originally on the conservative tree on July 18, 2022 | Sundance
As expected, the latest National Association of Home Builders survey [Data Here] shows the July confidence opinion of industry professionals now reflects the largest single month drop in the history of the survey (removing pandemic impact).
On a macro level, home values peaked in April/May and have been dropping ever since. Mortage rates have increased borrowing costs and inflation is squeezing home buyers out of their savings and/or down payment. Home sales have stalled in multiple regions and the prices of existing homes for sale are dropping, quickly. Many home building contracts are being cancelled and builders are now dropping prices in order to retain prior sales.
(Via Forbes) – […] Builder confidence in the market for new homes posted its seventh consecutive monthly decline in July, falling 12 points to 55 for its second-biggest single-month drop in history, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.
[…] In emailed comments, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said confidence has “further to fall,” noting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last month alluded to the housing market’s “complicated situation,” saying potential home buyers “need a bit of a reset” as mortgage rates normalize at higher levels after remaining historically low during the pandemic.
“This is a meltdown,” says Shepherdson, noting home prices should soon start to drop and warning: “Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss.” (read more)
Posted originally on the conservative tree house July 17, 2022 | Sundance
The families of the Uvalde Robb Elementary school shooting victims met privately Sunday with a Texas House committee who released an interim report on the events that took place. [Link to 77-Page Report Here] Following that private meeting the committee held a press conference where they spoke about the report and took questions.
The committee, led by State Rep. Dustin Burrows, shared what they learned as they looked into the school shooting. “If there’s only one thing that I can tell you is there were multiple systemic failures. I would invite everyone to read the entire report,” Burrows said at the press conference. “You cannot cherry-pick one sentence and use it to say everything without reading and without context. But if we need a simple phrase to describe what the report says, again I would tell you multiple systemic failures.” WATCH:
If you’re not from America, replace “Biden” with your elected official who is following plans for the Great Reset. The civilians and service members are the ones who truly keep our nations afloat and deserve praise for their efforts.
Rep. Ronny Jackson, R-Texas, a former White House physician under the Biden Administration, was reprimanded by former President Obama for admitting that everyone has been questioning Joe Biden’s mental health for years. “Holding the Line: A Lifetime of Defending Democracy and American Values,” a memoir penned by Jackson, discusses the conversations he had concerning the then vice president’s deteriorating mental state.
Jackson also happens to be the same physician who forced Donald Trump to undergo a cognitive test, which he passed. The media was constantly criticizing Trump for mistakes and he willingly took the cognitive test to put the public at ease.
In the letter posted above, Obama expresses his disappointment at “the cheap shot” Jackson took at Joe Biden. He did not, however, claim that the statements Jackson made were untrue. It is almost impossible to ignore the missteps of President Biden at this point in time, and America has become the laughing stock of the world for putting a senile old man in charge. The Democrats clearly knew that Biden was mentally unfit to run for president but elected him anyway. This man possesses the nuclear codes, executive order powers, and the ability to catapult this country into the Dark Ages.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 14, 2022 | sundance
The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released June price data [Available Here] showing another 11.3% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.
Overall, the wholesale inflation rate is being driven by energy prices. The June calculation shows exactly that problem with energy prices embedded in goods driving 10% of the price increase. However, there is some good news in the short-term for July and August, as the intermediate and raw material costs are leveling off temporarily. Unfortunately, that raw material price plateau is almost certainly the result of a drop in demand.
The June inflation rate for final demand goods (2.4%) is driven mostly by higher energy prices (10%). Energy costs are passed along through every stage of the supply chain contributing to an overall wholesale price increase of 2.4% in June, 11.3% year-over-year.
Notice the slight drop in final demand services; that is important. What we are seeing is a contraction in the service economy overall, as the service sector -which includes restaurants- cannot pass along the scale of energy price increase to customers. People are changing their spending habits – service demand overall is dropping.
Additionally, the producer price index gathers data from inside the supply chain, backwards from the final stage (wholesale) into the intermediate stage (various processing) and also raw material prices. Here is where things are getting interesting, and now I can make some direct forward predictions.
I modified Table-B so you can see how the supply chain for goods is responding to both: (A) energy prices, and (B) consumer spending. You can click on the graphic to expand the image and spend some time on it if needed.
You can see from the left side of modified Table-B that both levels of intermediate goods were heavily impacted by energy prices. “Intermediate” processed goods rising 2.3% in June, 22.2% year-over-year. Intermediate unprocessed goods (raw materials) rose 9.5% in June, 58.0% year-over-year.
However, if you subtract the massive June energy costs, you will note the intermediate price of nonfood processed goods significantly dropped to 0.2% in June. And if you subtract the energy costs, you will notice the raw material prices for nonfood durable goods actually declined 2.2% in June.
Here’s what is going on…
The inflationary impact of Joe Biden’s Green New Deal energy program is running into the inability of consumers to pay for the price increases it creates. That is what is causing the demand side drops in retail economic activity on Main Street. We all know this.
As a result of these high prices, there is less internal demand within the supply chain for both goods and services. Inventories are climbing and the demand for raw materials to produce durable goods is now declining. Subtract the energy costs and nonfood prices are dropping. The decline is a raw material demand outcome.
June energy prices were extremely high. That’s driving the current PPI price outcome at all stages; but behind that issue is low manufacturing activity.
Remember, two months ago we said food prices would plateau in July and August. This PPI report shows the entry into that plateau. However, there is a problem on the horizon that is not measured in this data.
The high energy costs to farmers (fertilizer, diesel, oil, energy, etc.), a cost already seeded (forgive the pun) is right now in the fields…. waiting…. sitting somewhat dormant and ignored by the statisticians… but that higher origination price is growing and lurking….
When the farming harvests take place, those higher field costs will enter the supply chain again and end up finding their way, via wholesalers and supermarkets, to your fork. Big Ag is going to maximize this opportunity.
Farmers will not be the ones benefitting.
♦ For the next two months the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will show inflation stability and possibly even price declines.
Those reports will come out in August (for July) and September (for August) and will give the impression that inflation has moderated, and the Fed has been successful. However, in/around Sept and October the harvest cost will hit the stores. At that point, energy prices -already high- will take a backseat to the rate of inflation driven by massive increases in food prices.
Oct, Nov and December, all the way through the winter, will be painful at the grocery stores and supermarkets. Also, restaurants this fall and winter, are going to get hit hard as their suppliers start to deliver food at much higher prices. Those people in the food service industry need to prepare now for what is looming.
Everything I just described above is happening at the same time as consumer demand for durable goods and non-essential services is dropping. The current economic activity on Main Street is tepid at best. Housing values have peaked along with rents.
Every element of the U.S. economy is now entering a phase where success or failure in a Main Street business is directly connected to the customer being able to afford the product or service.
Two-thirds of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is driven by consumer spending. Our borders are open, our wages are flat, our prices are high, our discretionary spending is contracting. Our manufacturing and service driven economy will contract, and we are two months away from food stability, prices, affordability and potentially scarcity, being the primary focus of everyone.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 13, 2022 | Sundance
Gasoline in Mexico is $3.12/gal. Gasoline in the United States is $4.78/gal
The media did not give this much attention; however, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador thoroughly, albeit diplomatically, dressed down Joe Biden over his economic and energy policy during a Tuesday visit to the White House.
You might remember that together with a host of south and central American leaders, Mexican President Lopez-Obrador refused to attend Joe Biden’s Latin-America summit last month {Go Deep}. With that in mind Obrador’s media remarks in the oval office are quite remarkable in their pointedness.
The video and audio are tenuous, and the delay for interpretation makes following the flow of AMLO’s comments a little challenging. However, if you read the transcript you can clearly see how AMLO is diplomatically undressing Biden over the economic issue of U.S. energy policy. It would appear that AMLO is not part of the great western reset and has no intention on inflicting the pain that is deliberately being created by other western leaders. [Video at 23:30, Transcript Below] WATCH:
Now keep in mind that socially AMLO is a soft-socialist (immigration). However, he is also a strong economic nationalist who has previously expressed a strong dislike for the influence of multinational corporations in Mexico. AMLO is not a World Economic Forum acolyte. AMLO is on team BRICS.
In these remarks, AMLO is very pointedly telling Joe Biden that his U.S. energy policy is seriously flawed. It is really quite remarkable.
AMLO tells Biden that Mexico will continue investing in expanded refining of gasoline, and he is willing to sell that gasoline to American companies because Joe Biden will not issue permits to expand gasoline refining capacity in the United States. Additionally, AMLO affirms his position on further oil development in Mexico and then, here comes the kicker,…. offers to expand electricity sales to the United States, including supplying Texas with electricity because both the Biden administration and Texas are not developing their own energy resources.
AMLO is telling Biden that Mexico will increase energy subsidies to the United States if Biden asks him to. Think about that.
[Transcript] – PRESIDENT LÓPEZ OBRADOR: (As interpreted.) Yes, I fully coincide with what you have proposed, President Biden. And I could summarize everything we’ve been saying in five basic items of cooperation.
Number one, since the energy crisis started, Mexico has used 72 percent of its crude and fuel oil exports to United States refineries — 800,000 barrels a day.
Therefore, we decided that while we’re waiting for prices of gasoline to go down in the United States — and I hope that Congress approves or passes your proposal, Mr. President —
PRESIDENT BIDEN: It has gone down for 30 days in a row. (Laughs.)
PRESIDENT LÓPEZ OBRADOR: (As interpreted.) — of lowering — lowering prices, yes. That’s it.
In the meantime, while we’re waiting for prices to go down, we have decided that it was necessary for us to allow Americans who live close to the borderline so that they could go and get their gasoline on the Mexican side at lower prices.
And right now, a lot of the drivers — a lot of the Americans — are going to Mexico, to the Mexican border, to get their gasoline.
However, we could increase our inventories immediately. We are committed to guaranteeing twice as much supply of fuel. That would be considerable support.
Right now, a gallon of regular costs $4.78 average on this side of the border. And in our territory, $3.12.
Let me clarify something, and I also want to take advantage of this opportunity to thank you, Mr. President. Most of this gasoline, we are producing it in the Pemex refinery that you allowed us to buy in Deer Park, Texas.
Two, we are putting at the disposal — or sending at the disposal of your administration over 1,000 kilometers of gas pipelines throughout the southern border with Mexico to transport gas from Texas to New Mexico, Arizona, and California for a volume that can generate up to 750 megawatts of electric energy and supply about 3 million people.
Three, even though the USMCA has made progress for the elimination of tariffs, there are still some others that could be immediately suspended. And we could do the same with some regulations, regulatory measures, and tedious procedures or red tape in terms of trade related to foodstuffs and other products so that we can lower prices for consumers in both our countries, always being very careful in the protection of health and the environment.
Four, starting a private-public investment plan between our two countries to produce all those goods that will be strengthening our markets so that we can avoid having importations from other regions or continents.
In our country, we shall continue producing oil throughout the energy transition. With the U.S. investors, we are going to be establishing gas-liquefying plants, fertilizer plants, and we shall continue promoting the creation of solar energy parks in the state of Sonora and other border states as well.
And we’re going to accomplish this with the support of thermal electric plants and also through transmission lines to produce energy in the domestic market, as well as for exports, to neighboring states in the American union, as for instance, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California.
It’s also important to mention that, two months ago, we took the sovereign decision of nationalizing lithium in Mexico. This is a fundamental mineral, a fundamental input to advance in our purpose not to depend on fossil fuels. And this will be available for the technological modernization of the automotive industry among our great countries — the countries of the USMCA.
Five, orderly migration flow and allowing arrival in the United States of workers, technicians, and professionals of different disciplines. I’m talking about Mexicans and Central Americans with temporary work visas to ensure not paralyzing the economy because of the lack of labor force.
The purpose of this plan would be to support and to have the right labor force that will be demanded by the plan you proposed and that was passed by Congress of using $1 trillion for the construction of infrastructure works. (read more)
Mexican President Lopez-Obrador is offering to bail out the United States energy crisis.
The World Economic Forum is praising Denmark for implementing the world’s strictest carbon tax laws. Companies will soon be forced to pay $159 for every tonne of CO2 emitted, marking an additional $53 per tonne. The government claims this will cut CO2 levels by 3.7 million tonnes in just one year.
“This incentivizes companies to clean up for themselves,” the WEF reported. In the midst of an extreme energy crisis, punishing energy suppliers will undoubtedly backfire. These costs will be passed along to the already struggling consumer. Even the World Bank admitted that the poor will suffer from the carbon tax.
The World Bank stated on its blog:
“There are good reasons why governments may not want to use carbon taxes, and one of them relates to their welfare impacts. For example, a carbon tax on fossil fuels is often regressive in its impact- hurting poorer people relatively more than richer ones. Even when it might be progressive, poorer people still suffer a welfare loss when prices rise, making their consumption basket more expensive.”
Furthermore, they admitted that the carbon tax “aims to restructure economies by raising the cost of a critical resource – the juice that makes it run.” Precisely. We NEED fossil fuels right now, there is no other viable alternative available to provide energy to the world. Since nations have succumbed to the climate change agenda, they have lost their energy-independent status. Europe shot itself in the foot by eliminating any diplomatic relations with their number one supplier of gas for a country that they did not acknowledge prior to February 2022.
Other nations with the ability will drill and sell oil to those under WEF leadership at a premium. India is already buying Russian oil at a discount, refining it, and selling it to the US for a premium. This is more than just bad business as it is a clear attempt to cut off a “critical resource” to “restructure economies” as seen fit by the WEF.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 12, 2022 | Sundance
A slowdown in the housing market is being identified as the primary cause of a significant increase in cancelled homebuyer contracts in the month of June. Bloomberg Report Here and Redfin Report Here. It would appear the inflated housing bubble has popped.
According to the data 60,000 home sales were cancelled while under contract in June, that represents 14.9% of all contracts cancelled by the buyer before the transaction closed. If you take out the forced cancellations due to the pandemic, a 15% cancellation rate equals the highest monthly cancellation rate ever recorded.
The economy is contracting, economic activity and consumer purchases have stopped, and the contraction is now fast and sudden.
(Redfin) – Nationwide, roughly 60,000 home-purchase agreements fell through in June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage on record with the exception of March and April 2020, when the housing market all but ground to a halt due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. It compares with 12.7% a month earlier and 11.2% a year earlier.
This is according to a Redfin analysis of MLS data going back through 2017. Please note that homes that fell out of contract during a given month didn’t necessarily go under contract the same month. For example, a home that fell out of contract in June could have gone under contract in May.
“The slowdown in housing-market competition is giving homebuyers room to negotiate, which is one reason more of them are backing out of deals,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Buyers are increasingly keeping rather than waiving inspection and appraisal contingencies. That gives them the flexibility to call the deal off if issues arise during the homebuying process.”
Marr continued: “Rising mortgage rates are also forcing some buyers to cancel home purchases. If rates were at 5% when you made an offer, but reached 5.8% by the time the deal was set to close, you may no longer be able to afford that home or you may no longer qualify for a loan.” (read more)
Now, keep in mind that contract cancellations can also be attributed to a hot housing market, where purchasing hysteria and bidding wars end up being factors in the contracts. Some anxious buyers make out-of-town offers without even seeing the house, then use contract exits -contingencies- to cancel the purchase if the home is ultimately not up to their standard.
In my opinion the spike in cancellations is a blend of the two aspects which indicate the apex of home purchasing is behind us. The bubble popped.
Home values are now declining as more available inventory starts to fill up the real estate market. Again, everything is local and regional depending on a myriad of issues; however, if we are looking at it from a macro level, the booming housing market is now over.
City and county tax rates will now benefit from the overinflated real estate sales data. Real estate tax bills (a backward-looking metric) will go up as the curve on home valuation actually starts to drop and drop quickly.
If you did not purchase a home this year, you have not lost money. If you did purchase a home this year, the dropping market will erase tangible wealth.
Redfin also has the top metro-markets for cancellations:
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