The End of Diversification?


Recent years there has been a shift in how various assets classes are trading. There is emerging a high degree of positive correlation among various financial asset classes that have many concerned since it is not conforming with the perceived historic norms. Many are reading into this as a warning of what is to come. When different asset classes move in the same direction simultaneously, this obviously eliminates the theory of diversification is asset allocation.

Asset allocation over the years has been the way portfolios are arranged because they lack the ability to forecast the major trends. The belief has been that the possible benefits of diversification across classes reduces risk and offers a management tool knowing that you will lose on one side but win on another class.

When there is a high correlation between classes, these asset allocation models fail. The concerns become that this injects a negative development because they fear if one asset class falls, it will take all of the others with it.

What is being overlooked here is the fact that there is a major shift underway which is not understood and this creates the risk of a LIQUIDITY CONTAGION whereby a loss in one asset class causes liquidation in all others to raise cash to cover the losses in one particular asset class. Welcome to the new age of international contagion which is far more serious and cannot be reduced by simply diversification.

We will be looking at establishing a Webinar for Institutional Clients on this subject matte

Macrone order Italian is no longer to be Taught in France


Macrone just signed a law where Italian will no longer be taught in France. The idea that Europe is one big happy family is so far from the reality that this is part of the backdrop behind the bearishness of the Euro. The old resentments remain. There has always been a strong resentment between the Italians and the French and this latest change by Macrone only fuels these old resentments that prevail within the Eurozone. What should have remained as a simple trade union has attempted to federalize Europe which is only increasing the tensions throughout the continent

How Did Rome Put Money into Circulation with no Central Bank?


 

QUESTION: How were ancient coins placed into circulation?

DR JB

ANSWER: That is actually a very interesting question. As the legend goes, the Gauls (French) attempted to invade the city of Rome quietly, but had frightened the sacred flock of geese that made a lot of noise. This alerted the Romans to the surprise attack giving us the word “monere” meaning in Latin to warn. The Temple of Juno then became popularly known as the Temple of Juno Moneta. Since this is where the coins were minted, we now arrive at the word “money” that springs from the origin of this legend and place that was an ancient mint.

Our term such as capital flow is also derived from the Latin word “currere” meaning “to run” or “to flow” and this is where the money flowed from giving us the word “currency” meaning the flow of money. This is why Juno Moneta is pictured on Roman coins as holding the balance scales in one hand and a cornucopia in the other symbolizing endless bounty or wealth. This is the birth of the term money and currency.

Now, since Rome had no national debt and no central bank, we immediately wonder how on earth did this function? The government-owned the mines and thus they coined money to meet their expenses.  Unlike our modern governments, they did not have a huge welfare state. They did subsidize food. But the coinage was used to pay the troops and government expenses and thus this is how the money was put into circulation. They would increase the output in times of war and decreased it in times of peace for the most part.

WEC 2019 Rome The Great Unknown


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This year’s World Economic Conference was most interesting. We really had to put our thinking caps on because we have entered the Great Unknown where Keynesian Economics has crumbled to dust. We have to reassess the future and how this will unfold as the central banks are beside themselves in many countries and the contagion of Quantitative Easing combined with Negative Interest rates has completely altered the economy and have driven a huge wave of disparity between Public v Private sectors of the economy. This is clearly the times that will test the best skills of what traders are made of.

WEC Rome 2019


The Rome 2019 World Economic Conference was a lot of fun. We have a very diverse crowd from around the world including central bankers, hedge funds, pension funds, and private investors. Nigel Farage was great and he calls our conferences the “alternative to Davos” which inspired applause from attendees.

Indefatigable – “A Movement For Democracy” Farage Rises Again….


Following the refusal of the professional political class within the U.K. to honor the Brexit votes of the majority, British leader Nigel Farage came off the sidelines and said ‘enough’.

Farage and a group of independent British politicians have formed the Brexit party to take down the two-party structure and finally deliver the voice of the people.  Their Brexit party campaign has been criss-crossing the nation ahead of elections on May 23rd.  The response has been exceptional….  “A Movement for Democracy”.

Nigel Farage delivered remarks during a rally today [Prompted to 01:18:30, just hit play]

NEC Director Larry Kudlow Discusses Exceptional Jobs Report…


National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the most excellent April jobs report and the continued forecast for U.S. economic growth.

Director Kudlow points out the greatest current economic benefits are being felt in the blue-collar Main Street sector; and rebuts former Vice President Joe Biden’s comments on the administration policy.

Adv

The End of Keynesian-Monetarist Theory


QUESTION: Thank you for your great work. I have read this article where Kudlow says: White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow predicted that it is possible the Federal Reserve won’t hike interest rates again during his lifetime: My question is do you think he is right? And what will the consequence be if the interest rate remains where it is – For example, the next 10 or 20 years?
P.S. Of natural causes, we do not know how long time Kudlow lives.
Best regards
L/Sweden

ANSWER: Perhaps he got bad news from his doctor or it is a political statement that is just absurd. What he is really saying is that Quantitative Easing has so destroyed the Keynesian model that there is now no other alternative for central banks to control the economy. If they raise rates, the budget explodes. We are witnessing the end of Keynesian.Monetarist theory.

Will Social Security Exist in 2021?


QUESTION: Hi Martin,
You mentioned in a 2016 blog post that “We will probably see the end of this Social Security program by 2021.772 (October 9, 2021)”. Does this forecast still have a high probability of occurring? If so, won’t this be devastating to retirees, especially those with little or no retirement savings? My employer no longer offers a pension plan to employees, only a 401K plan.
Ref. “Negative Interest Rates Destroying the World Economy”, Apr 17, 2016.
Kind Regards,
DA

ANSWER: I do not see this unfolding as a default. They will have to revise the system one way or another. There is more likely to be a huge split in interest rates from the private sector compared to the public at the federal level. As I have stated before, I tried to would with Congress back in the ’90s in reforming Social Security transforming it into a wealth fund that was allocated out among managers. The Democrats would not vote for it so this is why Social Security today cannot survive. It invests 100% in government bonds. That means it does not even earn a fair interest rate.

 

When people feared the private sector, AAA corporate rates soared peaking with the bottom of the stock market in 1932 and then declined to bottom with the rally into 1937. What we face now is the collapse of Social Security because it is restricted to buying only government debt where the interest rates are artificially maintained at absurdly low levels. Therefore, Social Security is already constantly being reduced in benefits. It cannot continue in this manner. It will have to be reformed and changed entirely. I do not believe that they will stop paying people. The way they default is reducing payments and the payments will not be enough to sustain themselves. Look at Venezuela. They honor their pensions, but what you get today will buy only a cup of coffee.

The likelihood of Social Security remaining as it is today is ZERO. Private sector rates will rise v manipulated government rates. We have entered into the Great Unknown economically. The Quantitative Easing of the Bank of Japan and the Europeans Central Bank have wiped out the free markets and ended government borrowing as a viable free market. The far more interesting aspect of interest rates will become the spread between corporate and public at the federal level.