European Debt Crisis Explained


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Po sted Jun 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The European Union failed to consolidate debt when creating its European utopia. Policymakers are solely to blame for creating their debt crisis, and it is hard to believe that no one saw this coming. The creation of the euro and European Union was so poorly planned that it is another example of comedy writing itself.

Hunter Biden on Gun Safety


Armstrong Economics on Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jun 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

President Biden is worried about firearms falling into the hands of criminals, like his son, Hunter. Hunter Biden filled out BATFE Form 4473 in October 2018 and purchased a .38 caliber revolver from a shop in Delaware. Hunter claimed he was not on drugs at the time of purchase, as it is illegal to sell a firearm to anyone “who is an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance.” Yet, in his memoir “Beautiful Things,” he admitted to smoking crack “every fifteen minutes” and that he even began to spend “a lot of time with thieves, addicts and con artists” who taught him how to cook crack cocaine.

Purchasing a gun illegally while under the influence is reckless, but the events that followed were worse. Hallie Biden, the widow to Beau Biden, feared for Hunter’s life as she thought he may harm himself. Hunter, who was legally married to his wife Kathleen at the time, was dating his fallen brother’s ex-wife. Morals aside, Hallie shortly found Hunter’s handgun in his truck and decided to dispose of it in a trash can across from Alexis I. du Pont High School.

One could only imagine the tragedy that could have unfolded if a teenager had found that gun. Hunter demanded that Hallie retrieve his illegal weapon, but when she went back to the school zone, the gun was nowhere to be found. The Delaware State Police, the United States Secret Service, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation quietly became involved. Politico noted that the store clerk did not want to cooperate with Secret Service as he knew they would cover for Hunter. The gun was later returned by a man who retrieved it from the trash can, allegedly.

The penalty for purchasing a gun while under the influence of a controlled substance is 10 years imprisonment. The penalty for lying on Form 4473 is up to five years imprisonment. Lying to an arms dealer “with respect to any fact material to the lawfulness of the sale” could result in an additional 10-year imprisonment. For Hallie’s part, throwing a gun in a bin 250 yards from a school violates numerous laws and is grounds for a lengthy sentence.

Joe Biden cannot control guns within his own family. He criticizes responsible gun ownership while allowing his troubled son to endanger the lives of others.

Tucker Carlson and Peter Navarro Discuss the Two Tiered Justice System in Navarro’s First Interview Since His Politically Motivated Arrest


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

[Hat Tip Gateway Pundit for capturing the interview] Earlier this evening Tucker Carlson used his opening monologue to highlight recent examples of the two-tiered justice system within Washington DC. {Direct Rumble Link}

At the conclusion of the monologue, Carlson interviews former Senior President Trump economic and trade advisor Peter Navarro.  Mr. Navarro explains more details about the background of his contact with the J6 committee and the DOJ/FBI.  WATCH:

Soros Installed Los Angeles District Attorney Gives Repeat Felon Teen a Summer Camp Sentence for Attempting to Murder Young Mother and Child


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

A 17-year-old repeat offender pleaded guilty to two felony charges of assault by means of force likely to produce great bodily injury and one felony count of hit-and-run.  However, in a stunning sentence, Los Angeles DA George Gascon make the unilateral decision to send the guy to 5 to 7 months in a diversionary probation camp. [Fox News LinkWATCH:

The young mom named as Rachel is furious at the wrist slap. Incredibly the young lady and her baby were not seriously injured.  “I thought those were the last moments of our lives; we were dead,” the mother, who asked to be identified only as Rachel, wrote in a victim’s impact statement. “That feeling, along with the memory of a car accelerating directly into us, will haunt me forever.”

[…] “As the car approached me and my child, I stopped walking and moved the stroller and myself up against a building on the right side of the road to ensure that we gave the reckless driver plenty of room to pass,” Rachel said. “As the car got dangerously close to us, [the juvenile suspect] turned the wheels in our direction and accelerated as he aimed to kill us.”

Rachel blasted Gascon for what she feels is an extremely light sentence.

“I was also told that his record would be wiped clean when he turns 18,” she continued. “How on earth can that be? He tried to murder two innocent pedestrians. Murder. And we have video evidence. My child would be dead if I hadn’t been there to protect him.” (read more)

Biden Administration Declare National Emergency for Clean Energy Production, Invokes Defense Production Act to Facilitate Faster Transformation of Energy Economy Away from Fossil Fuels


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

Earlier today, Joe Biden, working toward the agenda of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Wall Street multinationals, and the radical climate change activists within the far left of the socialist democrat party, declared a national emergency around the issue of U.S. energy prices and policies. [SEE HERE]

On the front side of the justification, the people in control of the Biden administration, claim that current and future increases in energy prices are likely to do severe damage to the economy and the lives of all Americans.  However, in the background of the issue, this is the ‘never let a crisis go to waste’ phase of an energy crisis the administration has intentionally created.

The real goal is to fundamentally transform the foundation of the U.S. economy away from fossil fuels and into a new era of clean renewable energy. This is what all of the Biden cabinet officers now refer to as the “economic transition” phase.

Joe Biden’s executive announcement today is the triggering of increased federal government control over the United States energy system.

Ideological government intervention, completely disconnected from the free market, is facilitated by the declaration of a federal national emergency:

[WHITE HOUSE] – Today, President Biden is authorizing the use of the Defense Production Act (DPA) to accelerate domestic production of clean energy technologies – unlocking new powers to meet this moment. Specifically, the President is authorizing the Department of Energy to use the DPA to rapidly expand American manufacturing of five critical clean energy technologies:

  • Solar panel parts like photovoltaic modules and module components;
  • Building insulation;
  • Heat pumps, which heat and cool buildings super efficiently;
  • Equipment for making and using clean electricity-generated fuels, including electrolyzers, fuel cells, and related platinum group metals; and
  • Critical power grid infrastructure like transformers.

In deploying the DPA, the Biden-Harris Administration will strongly encourage the use of strong labor standards, including project labor agreements and community benefits agreements that offer wages at or above the prevailing rate and include local hire provisions. The Administration also will strongly encourage projects with environmental justice outcomes that empower the clean energy transition in low-income communities historically overburdened by legacy pollution.

Following this announcement, the White House and the Department of Energy will convene relevant industry, labor, environmental justice, and other key stakeholders as we maximize the impact of the DPA tools made available by President Biden’s actions and strengthen domestic clean energy manufacturing. (more)

The Biden administration then immediately triggered the Defense Production Act for the U.S. government to: (a) suspend tarrifs; and (b) take control over procurement for all key components needed in the transition from fossil fuel to solar energy.   The products will come from Southeast Asia as the main hub of solar equipment is not located within the United States. DPA Excerpt:

[…] exported from the Kingdom of Cambodia, Malaysia, the Kingdom of Thailand, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and that are not already subject to an antidumping or countervailing duty order as of the date of this proclamation, and to temporarily extend during the course of the emergency the time therein prescribed for the performance of any act related to such imports. (read more)

The DPA emergency authorities have been given to the Dept of Commerce and the people working under Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo, the former governor of Rhode Island.  Each of the DPA’s released today targets specific components of the solar industry [SOURCE LINK].

Obviously, this massive shift in the governmental takeover of energy development is part of facilitating the aforementioned “Green New Deal.”  The approach follows a pattern that is transparent for those who are capable of accepting things as they are, not as we would wish them to be.

Joe Biden shut down domestic energy development, cancelled pipelines, cancelled leases, retracted the ability to drill in ANWAR (Alaska), and triggered massive new regulatory approaches from the Commerce, Interior and Energy departments.  The resulting increases in oil, natural gas, gasoline, electricity and energy costs overall – which became fuel on the furnace of inflation, have now created the energy crisis that Joe Biden is declaring a national emergency to solve.

Biden himself has no idea what is happening; he is simply following the instructions of the policy operators who are in control of the administration.  It is the people in the circles of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and the climate change activists within the DC bureaucracy that are executing the nuts-and-bolts shifts.  They tell Biden what to do, and he cluelessly does it.  We are the people who end up paying the price for their effort.

It would appear the primary goal is to push everything as fast as possible beyond an infrastructure threshold that could be reversed if/when the radicals are rebuked by the victims, us.

The democrat-socialists are ‘all-in‘ on this economic kamikaze mission.

The radicals took off on inauguration day with a nuclear economic device and only enough fuel for a one-way trip.  They are nearing their destination.

NBC Report, National Avg Gasoline Prices Likely to Reach $6/Gal by Labor Day


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

Surprisingly this NBC report admits the obvious.  The national price of a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline is projected to hit $6.00/gal by Labor Day.  Some states like California are already exceeding that amount, with reports that some CA gas stations are near $10/gal.  WATCH (1:08 sec):

.

Biden Administration Quietly Raised Amount of Ethanol Required in Summer Blend Gasoline from Ten Percent to Fifteen, Three Predictable Problems Will Surface Soon


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance 

Last Friday the Biden administration raised the mandatory amount of biofuel, specifically ethanol, that must be blended within the U.S. gasoline supply.  The previous amount of 10% (summer blend) was raised to a year-round 15% (waiver) by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  This is likely to lead to two sets of bigger issues, less food and higher gas prices.

♦ First issue. – The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is a government mandate, passed in 2005 and expanded in 2007, that requires growing volumes of biofuels to be blended into U.S. transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel every year.  Approximately 40 percent of corn grown in the U.S. is used for ethanol.  Raising the amount of ethanol required in gasoline will result in the need for more biofuel (corn).  With farming costs and outputs already under pressure this could be problematic.

♦ Second issue – The EPA enforces the biofuel standard by requiring refineries to submit purchase credits (known as Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs) to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proving the purchases.  This enforcement requirement sets up a system where the RIN credits are bought and sold by small refineries who do not have the infrastructure to do the blending process.  They purchase second-hand RIN credits from parties that blended or imported biofuels directly. This sets up a secondary income stream, a trading market for the larger oil companies, refineries and importers.

The RIN credit trading platform is similar to what we might expect to see if the ‘Carbon Trading’ scheme was ever put into place.   However, now that summer biofuel requirements for blended gasoline have gone from 10% to 15%, the price of the RIN credits will likely jump.  This will cost refineries billions in additional expenses,…. which will mean the cost of the gasoline from the refineries will increase,….. which will mean the cost of the gasoline at the pump will go higher.

The EPA theory is that RIN credits should be expensive thereby forcing all oil refineries to invest in infrastructure that makes the blended fuel.  All of the infrastructure from the refinery to the gas station would need to be modified to facilitate the new 15% RFS standard.  Again, higher prices at the pumps as a result of oil companies and refineries needing to spend billions on upgrades.   Which brings us to issue number three.

♦ Third Issue – “Ethanol is a valuable source of octane in finished gasoline, but it is chemically different than petroleum gasoline and cannot be used in concentrations above 10 percent in small engines — like outboard boat motors, motorcycles, lawnmowers, generators or chain saws — or in any cars made before 2001. Complicating matters further, most cars on the road today still aren’t warrantied to run on gasoline with more than 10 percent ethanol. Retail stations also must have compatible infrastructure in order to sell gasoline with higher ethanol blends.”  This issue is known within the industry as “The Blend Wall.

The net result of Joe Biden’s EPA raising the mandatory amount of biofuel that must be present in the U.S. gas supply is this:

(1) Less food as more corn is needed for ethanol.

(2) Higher prices for finished and blended gasoline.

(3) Vehicle engines breaking down at a much higher rate. 

The predictable Biden outcome is the absolute worst scenario for the middle-class.

ABC Article on the EPA change HERE.

AFPM Background Information HERE.

WASHINGTON – “The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers group, which represents refineries, called the 2022 figure “bewildering and contrary to the administration’s claims to be doing everything in their power to provide relief to consumers.” The group said unachievable mandates will increase fuel production costs and keep consumer prices high.” (more)

One-Third of High-Income Earners Live Paycheck to Paycheck


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation does not discriminate based on income. According to a new Bloomberg report, over one-third of Americans earning at least $250,000 annually are living paycheck to paycheck. Only 5% of the nation earns over $250,000 per year, and this is who the politicians would call “the rich.” One in ten noted that they struggled to cover their household expenses in April.

This is especially true for Millennials who lack decades of savings and were forced to purchase housing and other big-ticket items at the historically high price levels.  Among those earning $250,000 or more per year, 55.4% of Millennials reported living paycheck to paycheck compared to 26% of Boomers. In the $100,000 to $150,000 income range, 63% of Millennials reported an inability to save compared to 26% of Boomers.

Living paycheck to paycheck comes with the risk of slipping into debt. The Federal Reserve recently reported that 78% of Americans believed they were living comfortably financially, but they may be seeing the situation through rose-colored glasses. One in nine respondents from the same Fed survey admitted that they could not afford a mere $400 emergency expense. In this current economy, the wise are reassessing their spending as inflation is not expected to decline anytime soon.

Gun Sales Soaring in the US and Canada


Armstrong Economics Blog/Regulation Re-Posted Jun 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

As calls to repeal the Second Amendment continue, Americans have been buying guns at a record pace. Over 1 million civilians purchased firearms in the month of May alone, marking a record-breaking streak of 34 months of increased sales. Although the left would like the world to believe that there are no restrictions on buying guns, the majority of people who applied were not eligible. The FBI reportedly conducted 2.4 million background checks last month alone.

Gun sales in Canada have spiked as well after tyrant Trudeau announced plans to ban sales under Bill C-21. Numerous gun shops reported selling out of handguns entirely after the PM announced that it will become illegal to buy, sell, transfer or import handguns anywhere.” There are 2,500 gun retailers in Canada, and all of those shops are expecting to go out of business within months if not weeks. Exactly 55,000 guns were imported into Canada last year, but that legal trade will be prohibited.

People want to feel protected. The underground market for guns will surge in Canada, and these guns will become untraceable. Criminals especially will find a way to buy and distribute firearms with zero restrictions. The ban will not erase demand.

Gold – Dollar – Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Jun 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The American view during the 70s was more concerned about gold rather than the value of the dollar against world currencies. Most Americans never traveled to Europe so their impression of currencies was the Canadian dollar which was about par with the dollar that Americans would encounter when visiting Niagra Falls. I remember as a kid the family would drive up there and we would cross the border for the best view from the Canadian side. That was probably my first experience with a foreign currency other than ancient Roman coins when I bought my first one for $10 when I was probably 10 years old.

The other hot spot outside the United States was crossing the border to visit Tijuana in Mexico. That was a real hot spot largely promoted due to the Prohibition Days during the Roaring 20s. The Mexican peso was just this cheap thing that nobody really understood and they never understood how to count their change.

It was Roosevelt who confiscated gold from the banks and created a two-tier system whereby gold was used for international transactions, but silver was used for domestic currency backing until Kennedy ended the silver standard in 1965. Because gold was illegal to own except in coins dated 1947 or before, Americans really had little exposure to foreign currencies. They did not see the foreign exchange rate of the dollar during the 70s and 80s, it was all about gold. I even had a conversation with Paul Volcker who was focused not on the inflation rate as much as he too was obsessed with the rise in the price of gold from $35 in 1971 to $875 on January 21st, 1980 which he saw as the real inflation measurement.

As for the Europeans, they were focused on the dollar and the collapse of Bretton Woods. They were all buying gold after  March 1968 when the first crack in Bretton Woods took place allowing a parallel free market in gold in Europe. That was the birth of a two-tier monetary system. Overall, the Europeans were pushing the price of gold up in terms of dollars.

It was a wild time during the 70s. Because I was in New Jersey, the three major gold refineries were there. I was dealing with Englehard which ended up being Phibro post-1975 which took over Solomon Brothers. Before 1975, Americans could buy gold in coin form as long as it bore a date of 1947 and before. Austria, Hungary, and Mexico were the big sellers of gold. They were restricting coins with old dates so Americans could buy gold before 1975.

So I was in the thick of things back then insofar as trading was concerned. I had European clients in Gold and I dealt with all the Swiss banks at the time. By sheer fate, being a market maker in gold, taught me a lot. Gold was the first financial instrument for futures trading beyond currencies. The US bonds began trading in 1977 and S&P500 futures came in during 1985.

Gold rallied into 1974 on ANTICIPATION of Americans were going to run out and buy gold. They were expecting a gold rush. Being in the business, I never got one phone call about buying gold because it would be legal. Everyone who believed in gold had been buying gold coins all along.

The talk of the town was that gold would go to $500 as soon as the Americans were allowed to buy on January 1st, 1975. I sold gold short at the top mainly on a fundamental basis. I did not see any new demand. My Economic Confidence Model said it was a high. But I traded based on my observations.

I watched gold collapse back down to about $100 going into 1976. This is when after watching the ECM for 6 years, I went with it. I opened a new store in the Quakerbride mall and I signed a 10-year lease with a personal guarantee and I got them to eliminate the CPI clause. After all, the talk then was about another depression.

I watched 1968 was the first crack in Bretton Woods and the birth of the two-tier monetary system. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo was a decision to stop exporting oil to the United States. Then-president Richard Nixon appeared particularly concerned that Arab nations might impose a selective embargo on the United States for its pro-Israel policy. He was correct. Oct. 19, 1973, was the official start of the embargo when the Middle East countries announced a 5% production cut per month in response to the Yom Kippur war between Egypt and Israel. They saw Israel’s victory in that war, was because of aid from the United States. The embargoing nations then threatened that the cuts would be restored once Israel withdrew from Palestine and Jerusalem. Obviously, that never happened.

As always, we MUST look at the CONTEXT of the period. First, the climate consensus was that we were heading to a new Ice Age – not global warming. That meant there would be a higher demand for oil to stay warm in winter. In 1971 and 1972, fears began to grow in the developed world that if we were not already running out of energy supplies, we would soon as additional nations adopt western industrial structures.

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) warned the population would outgrow the food production so we needed to curtail the growth of the population and advocated deliberately creating a plague among the poor to reduce their number. If you ever really read Malthus, you can see the influence he has still had on people like Bill Gates,  George Soros, and Klaus Schwab.

Thus, in 1976 I went with the ECM. That was the wild wave of inflation and the very top of the next wave turned out to be 1981.35 which was the day of the high in interest rates.

What I learned was that none of the fundamentals mattered in the end. Gold would decline with inflation at times and rally at other times. It was more complex than that. The final rally from the $400 level to $875 had nothing to do with inflation, that was the invasion of Russia into Afghanistan.

The reliable was simply the objective analysis.