European Debt Crisis Explained


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Po sted Jun 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The European Union failed to consolidate debt when creating its European utopia. Policymakers are solely to blame for creating their debt crisis, and it is hard to believe that no one saw this coming. The creation of the euro and European Union was so poorly planned that it is another example of comedy writing itself.

Hunter Biden on Gun Safety


Armstrong Economics on Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jun 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

President Biden is worried about firearms falling into the hands of criminals, like his son, Hunter. Hunter Biden filled out BATFE Form 4473 in October 2018 and purchased a .38 caliber revolver from a shop in Delaware. Hunter claimed he was not on drugs at the time of purchase, as it is illegal to sell a firearm to anyone “who is an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance.” Yet, in his memoir “Beautiful Things,” he admitted to smoking crack “every fifteen minutes” and that he even began to spend “a lot of time with thieves, addicts and con artists” who taught him how to cook crack cocaine.

Purchasing a gun illegally while under the influence is reckless, but the events that followed were worse. Hallie Biden, the widow to Beau Biden, feared for Hunter’s life as she thought he may harm himself. Hunter, who was legally married to his wife Kathleen at the time, was dating his fallen brother’s ex-wife. Morals aside, Hallie shortly found Hunter’s handgun in his truck and decided to dispose of it in a trash can across from Alexis I. du Pont High School.

One could only imagine the tragedy that could have unfolded if a teenager had found that gun. Hunter demanded that Hallie retrieve his illegal weapon, but when she went back to the school zone, the gun was nowhere to be found. The Delaware State Police, the United States Secret Service, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation quietly became involved. Politico noted that the store clerk did not want to cooperate with Secret Service as he knew they would cover for Hunter. The gun was later returned by a man who retrieved it from the trash can, allegedly.

The penalty for purchasing a gun while under the influence of a controlled substance is 10 years imprisonment. The penalty for lying on Form 4473 is up to five years imprisonment. Lying to an arms dealer “with respect to any fact material to the lawfulness of the sale” could result in an additional 10-year imprisonment. For Hallie’s part, throwing a gun in a bin 250 yards from a school violates numerous laws and is grounds for a lengthy sentence.

Joe Biden cannot control guns within his own family. He criticizes responsible gun ownership while allowing his troubled son to endanger the lives of others.

European Debt Crisis Unfolding on Target


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Jun 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The European Central Bank (ECB) has a major crisis beginning. The free markets always win, and the spreads on the interest rates among the member of the EU are widening for Greece and Italy. Fools are telling Lagarde to use stronger language to signal that divergences among the member states will not be allowed to take place. The borrowing costs of more vulnerable countries such as Italy and Spain cannot be contained.

When they were creating the euro, the Commission attended our 1998 London Conference — the same one when I warned that Russia was about to collapse. It was then when I had a discussion with them, warning that a single currency WOULD NOT produce the same interest rate for all.

All the talk was that a single currency would set a single interest rate. I tried in vain to explain that would never happen. They were comparing it to the US federal government and I made it clear that they were not consolidating all the national debts and this meant that there could be no single interest rate and the difference in the currency would be transferred to the bonds instead. They simply refused to listen because that was one of the selling points to get the euro going.

It did not matter, they just wanted the euro at all costs. Now we see the widening of the spread and one central bank cannot impose a single interest rate any more than the Federal Reserve can control the interest rates all 50 states must pay to borrow money. In the United States, Massachusetts has the highest debt per capita in the country at about $11,130 with a AA rating while Tennesse has the lowest at about $875 and has a AAA rating.

The ECB knows it is facing a nightmare. The ONLY possible solution is to consolidate all the national debts of the member states and that would then become federal. Only then could it possibly be on the same footing with the dollar. Back then, the Bundesbank was against the euro. They were feeding us all the notes of the meetings because they really could not come out and speak. The Bundesbank understood the potential long-term crisis, and they opposed the merger of national debts.

So here we go again. COVID set off the fuse; Ukraine is the time bomb about to explode. As the soothsayer warned: Caesar beware!

Tucker Carlson and Peter Navarro Discuss the Two Tiered Justice System in Navarro’s First Interview Since His Politically Motivated Arrest


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

[Hat Tip Gateway Pundit for capturing the interview] Earlier this evening Tucker Carlson used his opening monologue to highlight recent examples of the two-tiered justice system within Washington DC. {Direct Rumble Link}

At the conclusion of the monologue, Carlson interviews former Senior President Trump economic and trade advisor Peter Navarro.  Mr. Navarro explains more details about the background of his contact with the J6 committee and the DOJ/FBI.  WATCH:

Soros Installed Los Angeles District Attorney Gives Repeat Felon Teen a Summer Camp Sentence for Attempting to Murder Young Mother and Child


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

A 17-year-old repeat offender pleaded guilty to two felony charges of assault by means of force likely to produce great bodily injury and one felony count of hit-and-run.  However, in a stunning sentence, Los Angeles DA George Gascon make the unilateral decision to send the guy to 5 to 7 months in a diversionary probation camp. [Fox News LinkWATCH:

The young mom named as Rachel is furious at the wrist slap. Incredibly the young lady and her baby were not seriously injured.  “I thought those were the last moments of our lives; we were dead,” the mother, who asked to be identified only as Rachel, wrote in a victim’s impact statement. “That feeling, along with the memory of a car accelerating directly into us, will haunt me forever.”

[…] “As the car approached me and my child, I stopped walking and moved the stroller and myself up against a building on the right side of the road to ensure that we gave the reckless driver plenty of room to pass,” Rachel said. “As the car got dangerously close to us, [the juvenile suspect] turned the wheels in our direction and accelerated as he aimed to kill us.”

Rachel blasted Gascon for what she feels is an extremely light sentence.

“I was also told that his record would be wiped clean when he turns 18,” she continued. “How on earth can that be? He tried to murder two innocent pedestrians. Murder. And we have video evidence. My child would be dead if I hadn’t been there to protect him.” (read more)

Biden Administration Declare National Emergency for Clean Energy Production, Invokes Defense Production Act to Facilitate Faster Transformation of Energy Economy Away from Fossil Fuels


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

Earlier today, Joe Biden, working toward the agenda of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Wall Street multinationals, and the radical climate change activists within the far left of the socialist democrat party, declared a national emergency around the issue of U.S. energy prices and policies. [SEE HERE]

On the front side of the justification, the people in control of the Biden administration, claim that current and future increases in energy prices are likely to do severe damage to the economy and the lives of all Americans.  However, in the background of the issue, this is the ‘never let a crisis go to waste’ phase of an energy crisis the administration has intentionally created.

The real goal is to fundamentally transform the foundation of the U.S. economy away from fossil fuels and into a new era of clean renewable energy. This is what all of the Biden cabinet officers now refer to as the “economic transition” phase.

Joe Biden’s executive announcement today is the triggering of increased federal government control over the United States energy system.

Ideological government intervention, completely disconnected from the free market, is facilitated by the declaration of a federal national emergency:

[WHITE HOUSE] – Today, President Biden is authorizing the use of the Defense Production Act (DPA) to accelerate domestic production of clean energy technologies – unlocking new powers to meet this moment. Specifically, the President is authorizing the Department of Energy to use the DPA to rapidly expand American manufacturing of five critical clean energy technologies:

  • Solar panel parts like photovoltaic modules and module components;
  • Building insulation;
  • Heat pumps, which heat and cool buildings super efficiently;
  • Equipment for making and using clean electricity-generated fuels, including electrolyzers, fuel cells, and related platinum group metals; and
  • Critical power grid infrastructure like transformers.

In deploying the DPA, the Biden-Harris Administration will strongly encourage the use of strong labor standards, including project labor agreements and community benefits agreements that offer wages at or above the prevailing rate and include local hire provisions. The Administration also will strongly encourage projects with environmental justice outcomes that empower the clean energy transition in low-income communities historically overburdened by legacy pollution.

Following this announcement, the White House and the Department of Energy will convene relevant industry, labor, environmental justice, and other key stakeholders as we maximize the impact of the DPA tools made available by President Biden’s actions and strengthen domestic clean energy manufacturing. (more)

The Biden administration then immediately triggered the Defense Production Act for the U.S. government to: (a) suspend tarrifs; and (b) take control over procurement for all key components needed in the transition from fossil fuel to solar energy.   The products will come from Southeast Asia as the main hub of solar equipment is not located within the United States. DPA Excerpt:

[…] exported from the Kingdom of Cambodia, Malaysia, the Kingdom of Thailand, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and that are not already subject to an antidumping or countervailing duty order as of the date of this proclamation, and to temporarily extend during the course of the emergency the time therein prescribed for the performance of any act related to such imports. (read more)

The DPA emergency authorities have been given to the Dept of Commerce and the people working under Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo, the former governor of Rhode Island.  Each of the DPA’s released today targets specific components of the solar industry [SOURCE LINK].

Obviously, this massive shift in the governmental takeover of energy development is part of facilitating the aforementioned “Green New Deal.”  The approach follows a pattern that is transparent for those who are capable of accepting things as they are, not as we would wish them to be.

Joe Biden shut down domestic energy development, cancelled pipelines, cancelled leases, retracted the ability to drill in ANWAR (Alaska), and triggered massive new regulatory approaches from the Commerce, Interior and Energy departments.  The resulting increases in oil, natural gas, gasoline, electricity and energy costs overall – which became fuel on the furnace of inflation, have now created the energy crisis that Joe Biden is declaring a national emergency to solve.

Biden himself has no idea what is happening; he is simply following the instructions of the policy operators who are in control of the administration.  It is the people in the circles of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and the climate change activists within the DC bureaucracy that are executing the nuts-and-bolts shifts.  They tell Biden what to do, and he cluelessly does it.  We are the people who end up paying the price for their effort.

It would appear the primary goal is to push everything as fast as possible beyond an infrastructure threshold that could be reversed if/when the radicals are rebuked by the victims, us.

The democrat-socialists are ‘all-in‘ on this economic kamikaze mission.

The radicals took off on inauguration day with a nuclear economic device and only enough fuel for a one-way trip.  They are nearing their destination.

Leaders of Latin-America Nations, Mexico, Bolivia, Guatemala and Honduras Boycott Joe Biden’s Latin-America Summit


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

Within the same 30-day cycle Joe Biden asked Venezuela to produce and deliver more oil in order to help him politically.  The Venezuelan government, having been the subject of an attempted coup and sanctions driven by the DC interventionist mindset, refused to assist.  Joe Biden then refused to invite Venezuela to his Latin-America summit scheduled for this week.

Latin-America leaders are not stupid.  It doesn’t matter whether the self-interested bully comes from the east or the west, they are not blind to the parasitic self-interest contained within the blackmail of any larger nations on the geopolitical stage; especially as the cleaving of the west and east is taking place with increased ferocity.

Today Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador announced he will not attend Joe Biden’s Latin-America summit.

AMLO joins the leaders of Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras and the tiny Caribbean state of St. Vincent in refusing to attend the summit because Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua were blocked from attending by the Biden administration.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – […] After weeks of wrangling over the issue amid threats of country boycotts, the administration excluded the three autocracies due to U.S. concerns over human rights and lack of democratic institutions in those countries, the officials said. The regional summit, scheduled for June 6-10 in Los Angeles, is expected to focus on migration and economic issues.

“I’m not going because not all the countries of America are invited,” said Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador Monday at his daily press conference. The Mexican leader said he had a good relationship with Mr. Biden and that he planned to visit the White House in July.

[…] The political rift between the U.S. and some Latin American leaders may hurt U.S. efforts to agree on a regional plan to fight irregular immigration toward the U.S., which is at record levels. In March, U.S. border authorities apprehended nearly 210,000 migrants attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally, the highest monthly tally since 2000.

The rift could also benefit China, which has significantly increased its trade and diplomatic presence in the hemisphere in the last two decades, experts say. Beijing quickly supported Mr. López Obrador’s demand that all countries of the Americas be invited to the summit. (read more)

The Biden administration’s foreign policy is advanced under the predicate of threats and bullying.  Despite the media effort to gaslight the American audience, the foreign policy of Donald Trump, economic nationalism, was much more respected by leaders who appreciated negotiations on geopolitical dynamics where the interest of both nations was present at the table.  For the Biden administration, as generally and historically reflected in the foreign policy of all democrats, the preferred approach is brutal force.  A ‘do as we need – or you will pay a heavy price,’ diplomatic approach.

The irony of media narrative construction, reality -vs- media portrayal, is not lost on anyone who follows closely.

A sad, albeit perhaps intended outcome, will be for Latin-America countries being less willing to support any U.S. effort to stop the flow of illegal aliens from Central America through Mexico and into the U.S. via the southern border, already in crisis.

From the 30,000 ft perspective, this lack of Latin-America migration assistance would appear to be an intended feature, not a foreign policy flaw.

The Biden administration approach follows the familiar Alinsky pattern of planning and executing a purposeful crisis, then throwing up hands to say ‘we are trying, but there is no easy fix.’  Insert a similar reference toward U.S. energy costs, sound familiar?

As noted by the Wall Street Journal, “in recent years, democratic values have eroded across parts of the hemisphere.”   There is every reason to believe the people behind the Biden administration are creating the rise of Autocracy while simultaneously decrying the rise of Autocracy.  The unilateral fiats used by western leaders during their COVID-19 responses were completely autocratic, yet suddenly they clutch their pearls and decry autocracy.

Factually, the rise of autocratic or nationalistic perspectives helps to cement the global cleaving underway.   At the end of this continuum there will be a new geopolitical alignment, a heavily controlled and manipulated set of western societies where citizens are suddenly controlled by centralized government and bureaucracy.  This is what many refer to as “The Great Reset.”

In the United States all the interested parties, specifically including the media apparatus, remain committed to pretending the reset is not underway.  For those who watch events unfold with eyes-wide-open, the reality of the future is clear.

Elon Musk Threatens to Walk Away from Twitter Deal if the Social Media Company Does Not Provide Transparency on Bots and Spam Accounts


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance

In a letter filed with the SEC [SEE HERE], Tesla CEO Elon Musk is threatening to walk away from the agreement to purchase the social media platform Twitter, if the company does not provide transparency on their internal analysis surrounding fake Twitter accounts.

The letter was sent to Twitter and filed with the SEC after Twitter seemingly refused to provide details about how they can verify the accurate number of active user accounts. There is a strong possibility the purchase is now less likely.  The full transcript of the letter is below:

[SEC Filing] – Dear Ms. Gadde: We are in receipt of correspondence sent on Twitter’s behalf dated June 1, 2022, responding to Mr. Musk’s request for the data and information described in my letters dated May 25, 2022 and May 31, 2022.

Mr. Musk does not agree with the characterizations in Twitter’s June 1 letter. Twitter has, in fact, refused to provide the information that Mr. Musk has repeatedly requested since May 9, 2022 to facilitate his evaluation of spam and fake accounts on the company’s platform.

Twitter’s latest offer to simply provide additional details regarding the company’s own testing methodologies, whether through written materials or verbal explanations, is tantamount to refusing Mr. Musk’s data requests. Twitter’s effort to characterize it otherwise is merely an attempt to obfuscate and confuse the issue. Mr. Musk has made it clear that he does not believe the company’s lax testing methodologies are adequate so he must conduct his own analysis. The data he has requested is necessary to do so.

As noted, under various terms of the merger agreement, Twitter is required to provide data and information that Mr. Musk requests in connection with the consummation of the transaction. Twitter’s obligations to provide Mr. Musk with information is not, as the company’s June 1 letter suggests, limited to a “very specific purpose: facilitating the closing of the transaction.” To the contrary, Mr. Musk is entitled to seek, and Twitter is obligated to provide, information and data for, inter alia, “any reasonable business purpose related to the consummation of the transaction” (Section 6.4).

Twitter must also provide reasonable cooperation in connection with Mr. Musk’s efforts to secure the debt financing necessary to consummate the transaction, including by providing information “reasonably requested” by Mr. Musk (Section 6.11). Mr. Musk’s requests for user data not only satisfies both criteria, but also meets even Twitter’s narrowed interpretation of the merger agreement, as this information is necessary to facilitate the closing of the transaction.

As Twitter’s prospective owner, Mr. Musk is clearly entitled to the requested data to enable him to prepare for transitioning Twitter’s business to his ownership and to facilitate his transaction financing. To do both, he must have a complete and accurate understanding of the very core of Twitter’s business model—its active user base. In any event, Mr. Musk is not required to explain his rationale for requesting the data, nor submit to the new conditions the company has attempted to impose on his contractual right to the requested data. At this point, Mr. Musk believes Twitter is transparently refusing to comply with its obligations under the merger agreement, which is causing further suspicion that the company is withholding the requested data due to concern for what Mr. Musk’s own analysis of that data will uncover.

If Twitter is confident in its publicized spam estimates, Mr. Musk does not understand the company’s reluctance to allow Mr. Musk to independently evaluate those estimates. As noted in our previous correspondence, Mr. Musk will of course comply with the restrictions provided under Section 6.4, including by ensuring that anyone reviewing the data is bound by a non-disclosure agreement, and Mr. Musk will not retain or otherwise use any competitively sensitive information if the transaction is not consummated.

Based on Twitter’s behavior to date, and the company’s latest correspondence in particular, Mr. Musk believes the company is actively resisting and thwarting his information rights (and the company’s corresponding obligations) under the merger agreement. This is a clear material breach of Twitter’s obligations under the merger agreement and Mr. Musk reserves all rights resulting therefrom, including his right not to consummate the transaction and his right to terminate the merger agreement.” (LINK)

Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal has said the company has consistently estimated that fewer than 5% of Twitter accounts are fake. Twitter has disclosed its bot estimates to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for years. However, they also caution their estimate might be too low.

The Twitter sale agreement allows Elon Musk to get out of the deal if there is a “material adverse effect” caused by the company.  The agreement defines those terms as a change that negatively affects Twitter’s business or financial conditions.  Overall, this looks to be a legal issue that will be determined through litigation.

Twitter has a compelling interest against disclosure and transparency, if in the actual number of bots or fake accounts is substantially above their previous estimates.  Prior filings with the SEC claimed a particular standard, if that standard is inaccurate by design or flawed analysis, all prior SEC filings by Twitter could be deemed false and subject the company to fines and/or shareholder lawsuits.

It will be interesting to keep watching this play out…

Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

Biden Administration Quietly Raised Amount of Ethanol Required in Summer Blend Gasoline from Ten Percent to Fifteen, Three Predictable Problems Will Surface Soon


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2022 | Sundance 

Last Friday the Biden administration raised the mandatory amount of biofuel, specifically ethanol, that must be blended within the U.S. gasoline supply.  The previous amount of 10% (summer blend) was raised to a year-round 15% (waiver) by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  This is likely to lead to two sets of bigger issues, less food and higher gas prices.

♦ First issue. – The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is a government mandate, passed in 2005 and expanded in 2007, that requires growing volumes of biofuels to be blended into U.S. transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel every year.  Approximately 40 percent of corn grown in the U.S. is used for ethanol.  Raising the amount of ethanol required in gasoline will result in the need for more biofuel (corn).  With farming costs and outputs already under pressure this could be problematic.

♦ Second issue – The EPA enforces the biofuel standard by requiring refineries to submit purchase credits (known as Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs) to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proving the purchases.  This enforcement requirement sets up a system where the RIN credits are bought and sold by small refineries who do not have the infrastructure to do the blending process.  They purchase second-hand RIN credits from parties that blended or imported biofuels directly. This sets up a secondary income stream, a trading market for the larger oil companies, refineries and importers.

The RIN credit trading platform is similar to what we might expect to see if the ‘Carbon Trading’ scheme was ever put into place.   However, now that summer biofuel requirements for blended gasoline have gone from 10% to 15%, the price of the RIN credits will likely jump.  This will cost refineries billions in additional expenses,…. which will mean the cost of the gasoline from the refineries will increase,….. which will mean the cost of the gasoline at the pump will go higher.

The EPA theory is that RIN credits should be expensive thereby forcing all oil refineries to invest in infrastructure that makes the blended fuel.  All of the infrastructure from the refinery to the gas station would need to be modified to facilitate the new 15% RFS standard.  Again, higher prices at the pumps as a result of oil companies and refineries needing to spend billions on upgrades.   Which brings us to issue number three.

♦ Third Issue – “Ethanol is a valuable source of octane in finished gasoline, but it is chemically different than petroleum gasoline and cannot be used in concentrations above 10 percent in small engines — like outboard boat motors, motorcycles, lawnmowers, generators or chain saws — or in any cars made before 2001. Complicating matters further, most cars on the road today still aren’t warrantied to run on gasoline with more than 10 percent ethanol. Retail stations also must have compatible infrastructure in order to sell gasoline with higher ethanol blends.”  This issue is known within the industry as “The Blend Wall.

The net result of Joe Biden’s EPA raising the mandatory amount of biofuel that must be present in the U.S. gas supply is this:

(1) Less food as more corn is needed for ethanol.

(2) Higher prices for finished and blended gasoline.

(3) Vehicle engines breaking down at a much higher rate. 

The predictable Biden outcome is the absolute worst scenario for the middle-class.

ABC Article on the EPA change HERE.

AFPM Background Information HERE.

WASHINGTON – “The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers group, which represents refineries, called the 2022 figure “bewildering and contrary to the administration’s claims to be doing everything in their power to provide relief to consumers.” The group said unachievable mandates will increase fuel production costs and keep consumer prices high.” (more)

SEC Warns Against Meme Stocks


Armstrong Economics Blog/Trading Re-Posted Jun 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is warning investors against popular “meme stocks.” Yet, they have gone too far by offering direct trading advice. Specifically, the SEC produced a video (see below) about GameStop (GME) that has retail investors reeling.

GameStop was certainly trading in volatile territory during Q1 2021. A group of online retail investors promoted the stock and allegedly were partially responsible for causing Melvin Capital hedge fund to lose 53% of its capital in January. The short squeeze seems to be highly exaggerated and the four largest asset managers in the world owned 39% of GameStop at the time. Those who traded properly, or simply got lucky, profited off of the volatility, but, obviously, that is not recommended for the amateur investor.

The problem here is that the SEC is trying to deter the retail investor to protect the hedge funds. The SEC should not be telling the public which stocks to avoid and I do not believe the shareholders of GME or other “meme stocks” will be happy with this advice.