Posted originally on Aug 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Entering the forest has become illegal in three Canadian provinces—Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Entering woodlands can result in massive fines or even jail time. Why? The Canadian government believes it must ban the public from accessing nature to prevent forest fires.
Air Force veteran Jeff Evely committed a crime by participating in an outlawed act of civil disobedience by walking into a woodland area in Nova Scotia. The veteran was issued a C$28,872.50 fine for simply entering public lands.
“This law views people as the problem – not dangerous activities. This law is anti-human, and should someone find themselves on the wrong end of a charge – a massive charge, $25,000 dollar fine, for going into the woods, you can expect a constitutional challenge and a judicial review of this order,” Constitutional lawyer Marty Moore of the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms stated regarding the ban.
Humans are responsible for climate change, the climate zealots insist. The dry climate and natural cyclical pattern of fires is to be ignored. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau authorized the Canadian Armed Forces to respond to wildfires raging in Alberta earlier in the year, and sent troops to help assist during the wildfires that raged throughout California. Trudeau blamed climate change for the ongoing fires—and what luck as a carbon tax could assist in quelling climate change.
“The federal carbon tax will help deal with weather disasters such as fires in northern Alberta. Extreme weather events are extraordinarily expensive for Canadians, our communities and our economy. We need to be taking real action to prevent climate change. That’s why we’re moving forward on a price on pollution right across the country, despite the fact that Conservative politicians are trying to push back against that,” Trudeau commented.
The World Economic Forum published an article in 2018, detailing how its young leader, Trudeau, would implement a “carbon tax on those unwilling to tackle climate change.” The Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act (GHGPPA) carbon tax began at C$20 per tonne of CO2 in 2019 and increased by C$10 per year, reaching C$50 per tonne by 2022. The government then stated it needed to increase the tax by an additional C$15 per tonne per year beginning in 2023 until 2030 when the total cost will reach C$170 per tonne.
Canadian households have been burdened with the carbon tax as this is not merely for massive corporations or polluters. The people are always the target of climate laws as the entire premise of climate change regulation is control. The carbon tax for Canadian households started in 2019 at C$20 per tonne and increased steadily to C$80 per tonne by 2024. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimated that the carbon tax will cost the average Canadian household between C$377 and C$911 in the fiscal year 2024-25 after rebates. By 2030, Canadian families can expect the tax burden to soar to C$2,773 in certain provinces like Alberta.
Politicians are not to question the carbon tax or the climate change agenda. “His ideology is so strong, he would rather watch the country burn and Canadians suffer than continue to fight against climate change and put the Canada carbon rebate in their pockets,” Trudeau said of Poilievre, who opposed the carbon tax.
It began with lockdowns for COVID-19, and now the government has the power to lock down public lands to protect “national security.” Simply walking into the woods could cost someone tens of thousands of dollars if not jail time, and are people to accept this fate? Similar to how the carbon tax continues to increase, the authoritarian power granted to government under the premise of climate change will continue to build if left unchecked.
Posted originally on Aug 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
(Image explained in previous post— grocery inflation spiked years ago and has not relented)
An AP-NORC poll questioned Americans about their main cause of financial stress. Over half (53%) of respondents cited rising food prices as their main stressor, with 19% admitting to deferring payments to afford groceries.
The cost of housing was a close second at 47%, followed by the amount of money in savings (43%) and wages (43%), and healthcare was close behind (42%).
Buy Now Pay Later services are on the rise, with 3 in 10 of respondents reportedly using this deferred payment option for essentials. Around 29% said that credit card debt has become their top financial problem, with other studies showing that more Americans are using credit card to purchase the basics like groceries.
The New York Federal Reserve reported that total US household debt rose by $185 billion in Q2 2025 to $18.39 trillion. When people are forced to borrow to eat, the issue becomes deeper than inflation, as it is a sign of government failure. Civil unrest does not occur when the people are fat and happy.
Rising food insecurity could be used as a dangerous political weapon to usher in programs such as price controls, UBI, or a bloated welfare state. They will use the food crisis to usher in greater control. A hungry population is the easiest to manipulate. Food prices declined by 0.1% in July on a monthly basis, which means absolutely nothing. Food prices are a glaring example of how weather, geopolitics, and domestic policies have beaten the so-called inflation “soft landing” narrative. This won’t fade in 2025 as it’s set to persist through 2027 unless the public confronts the real causes.
Posted originally on CTH on August 11, 2025 | Sundance
The intellectually honest political watcher knows that overall Ukraine represents the largest international money laundering operation to shift wealth from taxpayers to the politically connected institutions, since COVID-19. The money is the motive to continue the conflict.
With President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin scheduled to meet in Alaska for a summit to negotiate a ceasefire, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz quickly organizes a meeting between EU leaders and the U.K to figure out how the keep the war going.
As the industrial capital of the EU, Germany has a lot at stake given the nature of their contracting economy. The EU military industrial complex is centered around the nation Merz represents. There are trillions at stake.
BERLIN — U.S. President Donald Trump will join European leaders including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for an emergency virtual summit on Wednesday.
The call, organized by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, comes ahead of Friday’s summit in Alaska between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine.
The virtual summit will focus on pressure options against Russia, questions about Ukrainian territories seized by Russia, security guarantees for Kyiv and the sequencing of potential peace talks, a German government spokesperson told POLITICO.
Merz and other European leaders demand that Putin first agrees to a ceasefire before any peace talks or land swaps between Moscow and Kyiv can take place. They have also made clear that any potential territorial exchanges must be balanced and agreed with Kyiv, and that Ukraine should receive firm security guarantees to protect it against further aggression.
Three diplomats told POLITICO that Merz’s team had been in intensive discussions with other capitals in recent days to organize the virtual meeting. (read more)
Posted originally on Aug 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Your model has projected a recession into 2028. ZeroHedge publishes “If everything is going to be just fine, why are thousands of stores closing all over the country? So far this year, the total amount of retail space that has been permanently closed has surpassed 120 million square feet. We have never seen anything like this before. Store closings spiked during the early days of the pandemic, but in 2025, stores are being permanently shuttered at an even faster pace.”
Do you agree with this? You have also written that in part this is a paradigm shift like Schumpet’s waves of Creative Destruction. Could you address this paradox?
Ronnie
ANSWER: Zero Hedge’s statement is a little misleading, but certainly not intentional. Yes, we have a recessionary trend globally into 2028, which has also been set in motion within the EU by the pounding of war drums. The EU is more likely to experience a DEPRESSION, whereas the USA will have a recessionary atmosphere with STAGFLATION, more like the 1970s, with inflation outpacing GDP growth primarily due to rising costs and wars globally.
Our computer is demonstrating that volatility in Unemployment will rise from 2026, peaking first in 2028 with a Panic Cycle in 2029. This also confirms our War Cycles for 2026. What we MUST come to grips with is that there is far more to understanding the economy from a single statistic perspective. However, we are also undergoing two significant factors that the classic economic models fail to incorporate, aside from the fact that 99% of the rhetoric and the economic models overlook the leverage in the banking system that creates money outside of the Federal Reserve through lending:
TWO SIGNIFICANT FACTORS OMITTED IN CLASSIC ECONOMIC MODELS
(1) a shift to independent contractors/freelancers thanks to COVID, and (2) a wave of Creative Destruction.
(1) INDEPENDENT CONTRACT:
I stumbled into this issue when the Florida Revenue Department wanted to audit our company. Florida has no income tax, so I was a bit befuddled. I discovered they were auditing to see if we had independent contractors or freelancers who would qualify as a full-time employee, and as such, we were not collecting unemployment taxes, etc. I have NEVER had such an audit – EVER!. So I began to investigate why I was being audited for such an issue. It turned out that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly contributed to the rise in independent contractors and freelancers.
1. Job Losses & Economic Uncertainty
Many traditional employees were laid off or furloughed during lockdowns, pushing them into gig work or freelancing to make ends meet. Companies downsized and relied more on contract workers to reduce long-term labor costs.
2. Remote Work & Digital Acceleration
The shift to remote work made location-independent freelance roles more viable. Platforms like Upwork, Fiverr, and TaskRabbit saw increased demand for freelance services (e.g., digital marketing, programming, consulting).
3. Business Adaptations
Small businesses and startups turned to freelancers for flexibility instead of hiring full-time staff. The “Great Resignation” led many workers to seek autonomy, choosing self-employment over traditional jobs.
4. Government & Policy Influences
Stimulus checks and unemployment benefits (e.g., PPP loans, CARES Act) provided temporary support, allowing some to transition into freelancing.
In some states, labor laws evolved to accommodate gig workers (e.g., California’s Prop 22 for ride-share drivers).
Upwork (2021) reported that 59% of freelancers started during or after COVID. MBO Partners (2021) found a 34% increase in independent contractors in the U.S. compared to pre-pandemic levels. OECD data showed a global rise in gig economy participation, especially in delivery (e.g., Uber Eats, DoorDash) and remote freelance roles.
Long-Term Impact:
While some workers returned to traditional jobs post-pandemic, many stayed independent due to flexibility, higher earnings potential, and hybrid work trends. The shift toward a more contract-based workforce is likely here to stay.
States with Higher Unemployment Than Pre-COVID (Feb 2020)
Nevada
Pre-COVID (Feb 2020): 3.7% Mid-2024: 5.2% (fluctuating due to slower tourism recovery) Reason: Heavy reliance on hospitality and leisure sectors.
California
Pre-COVID: 3.9% Mid-2024: 4.8% Reason: Tech layoffs, high cost of living, and slower rebound in entertainment/hospitality, illegal aliens, and the highest income tax in the nation.
California Income Tax – 13.3% (on income over $1,000,000)
New York
Pre-COVID: 3.7% Mid-2024: 4.5% Reason: Slow office sector recovery (NYC), reduced business travel, and Wall Street moving to Florida.
New York Income Tax – 10.9% (on income over $25,000,000)
Pre-COVID: 2.4% Mid-2024: 3.8% Reason: The economy is highly dependent on Tourism and high taxation
Hawaii Income Tax – 11.0% (on income over $200,000)
States with No Income Tax:
Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee (repealed investment income tax in 2021), Texas, Washington (but has a capital gains tax over $250,000), Wyoming
States That Have Recovered or Improved
Texas, Florida, Utah, Idaho, and South Carolina have unemployment rates at or below pre-pandemic levels due to strong job growth in tech, manufacturing, and migration trends.
Remote Work Trends: NYC and San Francisco, more than the Sun Belt states, have lost office work. This, in part, has also resulted in the commercial real estate crisis that was part of the objective of the COVID Scam to force people to work from home and stop commuting to save the planet.
Migration Shifts: States like Texas and Florida gained workers, while some Northeast/Midwest states lost population. This is the Great Migration from the BLUE to the RED states. I met people who moved to Florida because their children were becoming suicidal in the Blue States as they shut down sports, and many children thought their dreams in life were over.
Because of that strange audit that still costs you $25,000 in legal and accounting fees for something we did not owe, I began to dig. I found that the rise in independent contractors and freelancers was a side-effect of COVID, in addition to the Great Migration. States were looking for spare change. I would not have been surprised if they didn’t start searching cars for coins left in the ashtrays.
(2) Waves of Creative Destruction:
Simultaneously, the plot behind COVID was to create 15-minute cities and have people work from home, virtually ending commuting. What also took place was that people were locked down, and instead of shopping or even going out for dinner, they ordered from Amazon and took out from restaurants. COVID set in motion a new dynamic that the economic models are failing to comprehend. Unemployment can rise while commerce expands. Just look at the sale of Amazon. In the past 10 years, Amazon has expanded by 625%. I know a guy who had a camera shop. I closed after 30 years because he could no longer compete with online sales from Amazon. This is the story nationwide. But COVID was clever. The goal was to save the planet, and that has resulted in a cascade of small stores and even some chains closing stores. Now you have UBER.EATS, Door Dash, etc, to facilitate food being delivered to you within minutes. People closed offices and employees shifted to home, and commercial real estate is going into crisis liquidation. This is not all part of a normal recession – it is a Creative Destruction Wave where unemployment rises, but commerce can expand.
My firm became the highest-paid analyst ever, and we were an institutional advisor with some individuals who had a ton of money. Our reports used to go out by telex, and the cost could be up to $75 in telex fees per report, which would go out 3 times a day per currency. That was why I began opening offices around the world so we could reduce costs for clients by sending one set of reports to our London, Geneva, or Asian offices, and they would then redistribute it to the clients in that region. This would reduce costs from $200,000-$300,000 per client just in communication costs. We were Western Union’s biggest client.
In 1983, the Wall Street Journal wrote a piece that I was charging $2,000 an hour for phone advice. The journalist, after talking to our clients who agreed to participate in their review, told him that if I charged $10,000 an hour, they would pay it. He called me back and was stunned. I was advising on a billion-dollar transaction in 1983. $2,000 or $20,000 did not make much difference.
By the mid-to-late 1980s, fax machines were a standard office appliance, peaking in the 1990s before email and digital scanning began replacing them. We started sending reports out by FAX, and that reduced the communication costs dramatically. So personally, I have lived through the technology cycle of Creative Destruction and saw the price of transmitting a report from $75 to email, which is now basically free. That took the business away from Western Union, and has been a wave as Schumpeter envisioned.
When the East and West Coasts were connected by train in 1869, the Railroad era put out of business the wagon train industry. The United States expanded, and as train tracts were laid around the country, it was first the Railroad Boom which really came to an end with the Panic of 1907.
The Industrial Revolution expanded, and the Industrialists, led by the auto stocks, drove the 1929 bull market. The invention of the combustion engine led to tractors for farmers, disproving the theories of Malthus that humanity would starve as population increased. He never understood the cycles of technology, yet he influenced Gates and the Rockefellers. As farmers had tractors, production increased while employment declined.
The horse & buggy was replaced with automobiles. As they expanded, so did the suburbs come alive. Suddenly, people could live in places without trains. The town I grew up in flourished because we had a train station, which enabled people to buy land and move out of the cities. The town I grew up in expanded further from the train station with the automobile.
The first commercial airline was the St. Petersburg–Tampa Airboat Line, which began operations on January 1st, 1914. They flew a Benoist XIV, a small flying boat (seaplane). The distance was only 23 miles (37KM). It reduced the travel time from 2+ hours by boat or car to just 23 minutes.
Therefore, while the ECM has turned down, such forecasts that focus on ONLY one aspect or statistic are always wrong and/or lead to misinterpretations and confusion. Economists omitted from their models not only the creation of money by the banking sector through lending money, thereby leveraging the money supply. Those who believe shutting down the Fed and handing money creation to the Treasury will cure inflation do not know their monetary history.
Even a gold standard did not prevent inflation. The discovery of gold in the New World flooded Europe and resulted in massive inflation. during the 15th-16th centuries. The gold-silver ratio has always fluctuated because the discovery of silver relative to gold has never been confined simultaneously.
The vast gold discoveries in California, Australia, and Alaska created waves of inflation, as did wars. Just because gold is money does NOT eliminate inflation. All the nonsense about paper currency is FIAT, and that is the problem, it is just stupid sophistry. It has NEVER mattered what the money is from gold, cowrie shells in China, to sheep skins, Bronze, or cattle.
Assets rise in value regardless of what the money might be, and the purchasing power of money declines even when it is gold. This is the business cycle that DID NOT simply appear when paper money started in the USA.
The economic models are DOMESTIC because economists want a job to advise governments that they are all-powerful if they listen to them. I am sorry. As a trader, you lose your shirt, pants, your house, and your family if you trade based on economic theories. They are entirely useless. They never consider external factors.
(1) All banks create money with loans (I deposit $100 and they lend you $100, and both our accounts reflect a money supply of $100) (2) They have never been able to account for sudden increases in the money supply that have been caused by: (a) new gold or silver discovery (b) A war in another region diverted capital seeking shelter as European money flowed to the US for WWI & WWII (c) Capital concentration where foreign capital sees a profit in another economy driven by currency values (d) Capital flight from your economy based upon a sudden collapse in confidence, be it mismanagement or war (3) Economic technological evolution (trains, cars, airplanes, internet, etc…)
This is not even a complete list. I only met one academic who thought outside the box, and that was Milton Friedman. Milton came to listen to me at a trading convention in Chicago. I was explaining capital flows and currencies. When I was finished, Milton stepped forward to shake my hand and said I was doing what he had only dreamed about. We became friends, and then I understood what he was talking about. He had theories that a floating exchange rate system would impose checks and balances upon the fiscal policies of the government. He had written that theory down in 1953.
While I explained the Great Depression and the Sovereign Debt Defaults in 1931 in Europe, even Canada suspended debt payments, you can see the capital was taken back to its home countries, ending the Roaring ’20s. Everyone politically blamed Hoover and then tariffs, but nobody understood international capital flows.
I explained HOW the G5 intentionally lowered the value of the dollar by 40% to reduce the trade deficit. As idiots, they never understood that doing that means you were devaluing everything held by a foreigner. Japan owned up to 30% of the US National Debt, and they dumped it as the capital flows revealed.
It was World War I and World War II that made the US the financial capital of the world because all the gold fled to the USA during the wars. There was ABSOLUTELY no political decision made by any domestic politician that stood up and proposed making the US become the new capital for finance, taking that title from Britain.
There is absolutely no historical evidence that repeated wars have ever benefited any country. Britain got into World War I when it was not threatened, all based on treaties, as NATO is doing right now. Those treaties shifted the financial capital from London to New York, and World War II led to Britain’s full displacement of the British pound with the dollar. Even Canada rejected the British monetary system and shifted to the Canadian dollar.
War destroys the economy, as evidenced by Lydia, which invented coinage and fought Persia. Athens became the financial capital of the world after the Battle of Marathon, and they were compelled to debase their coinage and lost in the Peloponnesian War to Sparta.
The favorite phase in economics is: “Assuming all things remain equal.” Of course, that never happens.
We have the socialists always claiming the problem is wealth disparity. They hate people who have more than they do – that’s all. Both China and Russia tried Marxism’s wealth disparity solution – confiscate all private wealth to create material equality. The people learned that you had no right to be individual. When everyone was equal, and they needed a floor swept, you were next in line – here is your broom.
All things NEVER remain equal, and the wildcards always come from external sources. Just as no US politicians set out to make the dollar the reserve currency, that only took place at Bretton Woods after two World Wars.
My old PA used to have a man figure on her desk, which said – Shit Happens!
Larry Sanger, one of the founders of Wikipedia, states plainly that it is now all propaganda.
PS: That is why the government (Bankers & Neocons) work hard to try to keep people away from reading this site because they want to rule the world and expect to manipulate markets for their guaranteed trades and never want people to understand the truth. Just as they called the media and were directing them to cancel anyone who told the truth about COVID and were debanking people who told the truth, sold guns, or gold, the government has seized control of Wikipedia and ensured their fake news is always at the top of the list.
NEVER DONATE TO WIKIPEDIA – YOU ARE SUPPORTING THEIR PROJECTS TO UNDERMINE OUR FREEDOM
Posted originally on CTH on August 10, 2025 | Sundance
Former New York City Police Commissioner, Ray Kelly, is warning about what will happen if Zohran Mamdani wins the mayor race in New York City. However, at this point the Mamdani victory is almost assured.
Mamdani is supported by both the professional political left and the professional political right. Essentially supported by establishment Democrats and establishment Republicans. Also, supported openly by the DNC and supported passively by the fundraising arm of the RNC.
Mamdani represents the opportunity for both parties to fundraise billions of dollars in support and opposition. This is the UniParty at work.
Zohran Mamdani is essentially a shoo-in for Mayor. He hits a very unique niche spot, fulfilling the role needed for the left and the right. The left will promote the unaffordability of things and target the Gen-z audience for branding. The DNC will do their social/econ experiments again and fundraise.
On the other side of the UniParty, the “conservatives” within the traditional GOPe will have their new foil. Conservatives will have the opportunity for thousands of hours of punditry, lots of column inches and, of course, fundraising.
An argument can be made that Andrew Cuomo, financed by those who construct political distractions, entered the NYC race to ensure a Mamdani victory. Republicans, Democrats, communists, leftists, controlled right media, Palestinian supporters and Israel-First strategists all prefer both a beacon and a foil to keep the coliseum crowd occupied.
Yeah, politics in the post-Obama era is about seeing the other hand in slow motion now, feeling that intuitive sense of history repeating, and noticing the same tripwires are being triggered. Wash, rinse, repeat.
NEW YORK – Ex-NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly on Sunday warned it would be a “tragedy of major proportions” if city voters elect socialist mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, who is “totally unqualified” for the office.
Kelly — the longest-serving police commissioner in Big Apple history with stints under Democratic Mayors Mike Bloomberg and David Dinkins — said he is especially worried Mamdani will gut the Police Department while trying to usher in “a whole list of wacky things.”
“It’s a tragedy of major proportions if Mamdani is elected mayor of the greatest city in the world,” Kelly said on WABC 770 AM’s the “Cats Roundtable” program. (more)
The guy is straight from central casting for the UniParty.
A proud socialist, Muslim supporter of Hamas, progressive wealth spreader who hears and understands the voices of the Starbucks crowd. A NYC version of Barry Soetero. Professional Democrats and Republicans will benefit financially.
Posted originally on Aug 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Bank of England has cut its base interest rate to 4%, even as it warns of rising inflation. “We’ve cut interest rates today, but it was a finely balanced decision. Interest rates are still on a downward path, but any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully,” Governor Andrew Bailey stated.
The nine-member panel of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to lower rates by 0.25 percentage points, but failed to reach a unanimous vote with four members wishing to pause and another voting for a cut. The committee initially began with a 0.5 percentage point vote before reducing it to 0.25, marking the first time the MPC has needed a second vote—no one knows what they are doing.
The bank lowered rates but admitted that headline inflation is expected to hit 4% in September, up from the initial 3.75% estimate. Households are already spending one-tenth of their income on food, yet the bank expects food inflation to spike to 5.5% this year.
The central bank attempted to blame grocery store employee wages for price increases. “Furthermore, overall labour costs of supermarkets are likely to have been disproportionately affected by the lower threshold at which employers start paying NICs… these material increases in labour costs are likely to have pushed up food prices.” Every nation is facing a sharp upturn in food prices and store employees are not the culprit. The bank also acknowledged that unemployment has risen for five consecutive months, with unemployment reaching a four-year high in May 2025 at 4.7%.
The central bank cannot fight inflation as consumer demand is not driving price increases. Russian sanctions, net zero insanity, regulation, taxes, and an overall decline in public confidence have led Britain to decline. Let us not forget the looming sovereign debt crisis that every central bank is attempting to ignore publicly. Starmer is steering the nation directly into war, which never benefits the people and will become the primary culprit of inflation in time. The central bank cannot control fiscal policy; it cannot control inflation—all it can do is pretend to have a grasp on the situation to quell panic.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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