Around 40% of US Adult Children Live with Parents


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted May 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

A large portion of the youth can no longer afford to live on their own. A new survey found that around 40% of parents in the US currently have an adult child still living at home. An additional 25% reported that their adult child temporarily lived with them but has since moved out. Of the 2,200 respondents, 33% said that their adult children simply could not afford housing on their own. An additional 33% said their child needed financial support after college, while 17% cited job losses.

This has darkened what should be the “golden years” for many Boomer parents. Around 35% said they could no longer afford their long-term goals, and 26% said supporting their adult children has hurt their short-term financial goals. An additional 14% said the added cost had limited their ability to save for future health care.

Previous generations could afford to go to school, work hard, buy a home, and start a family. That is no longer the case amid inflation at a 40-year high coupled with historically high housing and rental costs. The average federal student debt is $36,510 per borrower, while private student debt averages $54,921. Home buying is out of reach for many, as the current average price for a home in America is nearly half a million dollars. Even those with the best credit, and help from their parents, have been outbid by cash offers. Rental costs are through the roof, with the average one-bedroom going for $1,683 (22.1% YoY increase), but it is hard to find an available apartment as occupancy hit 97.5% in December 2021. This all ties in with the drastically declining birthrate as people cannot afford to support themselves, let alone a family.

The unfortunate state of the economy will lead to a new generation of frustrated individuals who are behind in life at no fault of their own. The government has killed the economy, and with it, the American dream.

Joe Biden Memorial Day Message, “The Second Amendment is Not Absolute”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 30, 2022 | Sundance

The installed occupant of the oval office was asked today, “Sir, do you think there is anything different in how Republicans will approach the gun reform question now, given the circumstances?”  Within the response from Joe Biden {Direct Rumble Link}, he said this:

[Transcript] – “Look, when I first started doing hearings on the issue of what rational gun laws should be, it was during a period when I was a senator and the death rate was going up.  Not that many more people were being shot, but the death rate was up.  And when I think of — I’m not sure, I think it was (inaudible) hospital in New York — whatever the largest trauma hospital is. 

And I sat with a trauma doctor, and I asked him — I said, “What’s the difference?  Why are so many people…” — and not that many more people were being shot.  This is now 20 years ago, or 25 years.  I said, “Why are they dying?”  And they showed me x-rays.  He said, “A .22-caliber bullet will lodge in the lung, and we can probably get it out, may be able to get it, and save the life.  A 9mm bullet blows the lung out of the body.”

So the idea of these high-caliber weapons is of — there’s simply no rational basis for it in terms of thinking about self-protection, hunting.  I mean, I just — and remember, the Constitution, the Second Amendment was never absolute.  You couldn’t buy a cannon when the Second Amendment was passed.  You couldn’t go out and purchase a lot of weapons.”  (LINK)  WATCH:

Except for that “shall not be infringed” part.

Biden Spreads Inflation Lies on Twitter. Jeff Bezos’ Response Is Priceless | DM CLIPS | Rubin Report


Posted originally on the The Rubin Report  on Rumble on May 23, 2022

Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks about Jeff Bezos calling out Joe Biden’s inflation lies. Jeff Bezos attacked Joe Biden’s statement which connected inflation with corporate tax rates. Even Democrats like Bezos are turning on Biden as the US economy continues to tank amid inflation, supply chain problems, and market crashes.

Interest Rates & The Chaos Ahead


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted May 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Your forecast for the Panic Cycle here in Australian politics was correct and it beat all the polls as you did in BREXIT. Our new leader is a full-on board with the WEF climate agenda and will have all cars electric by 2030. As you say, in war you take out the power grid first. I guess this makes the power grid even more of a first-strike target.

I want to thank you for Socrates. It is great to have something that provides a non-emotional forecast. The forecasts you publish on so many things around the world are amazing and accurate.

So my question is this. You were correct that rates would rise, or Socrates was, and you said that there would be shortages with a commodity cycle mixed with war rising and civil unrest. So now that the central banks are in a state of panic, what do you expect with the panic cycle in 2023 in the Fed?

ANSWER: You are correct. Too many people attribute everything to just me as if I have a crystal ball. The forecasts are from the model. Nobody could be forecasting so many things for 40 years on a gut feeling and be correct. The odds of humanity are against that.

People tend to forecast what they want to happen. It is just an inherent human flaw. But it is also what drives markets. The majority of people are influenced by the direction of the trend. So a rising market makes people feel bullish and a declining market makes people more pessimistic. That is just a fact of life. So the ONLY hope for an accurate forecast MUST come from a non-emotional source. Staring into 2023 just looks like total chaos.

I do get the occasional email asking me how I cope with my own forecasts. I look at it this way. If I said here comes my fist, I’m going to punch you in the face. Do you just stand there and smile or do you dodge the punch, or defend against it? Isn’t it better to know something is coming to prepare?

It is more like an out-of-body experience for me personally because these forecasts are the computer and I have to stand here and watch as well as live through them. It is a different experience to forecast these events years in advance and live through them myself.

I am concerned that when you look around the globe, so many things have serious targets and panic cycles in 2023. Even in the war cycle, the computer has the highest aggregate bar for 2023. The central banks are unable to prevent inflation because this is a shortage crisis, not a speculative boom where raising interest rates will reduce the buying.

While the Central Bankers think this is clear sailing, they have entered uncharted waters. The risks of the markets discovering they cannot control the economy anymore will raise the crisis to extreme levels as we head into 2023.

Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan Outlines Details of Biden Administration Actions to Block U.S. Oil Production


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 20, 2022 | Sundance 

During a Senate Energy Committee hearing, Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan gives a list of actions taken by the Biden administration in the past three weeks to block U.S. oil production.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated during the hearing that the Biden administration was doing everything possible to increase oil production and supply in the United States.  Senator Sullivan quotes the actions of the Biden administration in the last three weeks which are exactly the opposite of the energy secretary claims.  WATCH (3 minutes):

This is, yet again, another example of the false pretense of the Biden administration {GO DEEP}.  The Interior Department is filled with radical climate change ideologues, and they are working earnestly to undermine U.S. energy policy.

The hypocrisies pointed out by Senator Sullivan are not hypocrisies, they are fraud.   The activist ideologues embedded within the bureaucracy of government are like terror cells activating to destroy the foundation of the country.   President Obama implanted them at all levels of the executive branch offices. They are self-aware and operating independently.  The example of the Interior Department, in charge of oil and gas development, is the easiest to see.

The Coming LIQUIDITY Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted May 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, You were named hedge fund manager of the year in 1998 for producing the highest return during the Long Term Capital Management collapse over the Russian bond crisis. At the WEC in Orlando, you said in 2019 that we were facing a liquidity crisis that would be similar to that event. Well, the Federal Reserve has now warned of deteriorating liquidity conditions across key financial markets amid rising risks from the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening, and high inflation in their semi-annual report. It appears that the forecast of a liquidity crisis distinguishing this crisis from 2007 to 2009 is unfolding. Would you elaborate on this current crisis headed into 2023?

JF

PS, a short interim virtual WEC may be warranted. Just mentioning. People take what you say, call it their own, and pretend you never existed.

ANSWER: What distinguished that ’98 Liquidity Crisis was that the “Club” of bankers and hedge fund guys were all on the same trade as they always did. The capital flows began to sift in 1994 as SE Asia peaked. The bear market that unfolded went largely unnoticed until the Asian Currency Crisis where the “club” then attacked the currency pegs. But the capital had begun to move back in anticipation of the coming Euro.

The 99.9% of fund managers lost their shirts on that capital shift because they were too busy bribing politicians and people in the IMF to look at the markets. They completely misjudged the world economy thinking like Marx and Keynes that they could control it. The shift in capital and attacking the SE Asian currencies led to the idea that all emerging markets were risky. With the Euro coming, the herd of little investors shifts their capital away from the funds heavily trading emerging markets. They were not “traders” but people who were engaged in trying to rig the game.

What they failed to understand was that the world economy is a financial sea of capital. When there is a high tide and capital is flowing in, they expect it will never end. The tide changes and you then move to low tide and the capital retreats outward. This was the first part of the liquidity crisis that would look at Russia as they did SE Asia emerging markets.

Consequently, when it is low tide, capital is retreating on a global level and that is when the liquidity crisis emerges. Thus, were the serious investors and pension funds behind to lose money in SE Asia, and they began unloading emerging markets elsewhere as well. Because all the hedge funds and bankers who try to rig the markets because they are not traders because they were all on the same trade of Russian debt when they tried to sell, there was NO BID. They began selling every position elsewhere which included the Japanese yen. It was a LIQUIDITY CRISIS so they needed to raise money to cover their losses and if Russian bonds were unsalable, all they could do was sell everything else. Thus, a LIQUIDITY crisis defies fundamentals because they are selling this ONLY because they need the money elsewhere. So the fundamental analysis provides no security for everything is connected in the global see of capital.

Edmon Safra of Republic National Bank put on a fancy dinner for the IMF. I was invited and it was all about trying to convince me that they had the IMF in their pocket and that would rescue the day. The pitch was Russia had all these nukes so no way would the IMF allow Russia to just collapse. This created a serious yet difficult situation for the Russian government. What was going on was that Russia had been running a huge budget deficit to pay for public services. They had borrowed $40 billion by issuing three-month ruble Treasury bills. This is what the “club” was bought for they were paying 30% interest to attract buyers. Bribing the IMF to prevent a default, they were all on this trade expecting free money. I refused to join and warned them that my computer projected this was going to collapse. They did not want to hear that. They were CONVINCED paying bribes would create that GUARANTEED TRADE.

The liquidity crisis this time is COMPLICATED. This time we do not have the traditional speculative boom which has produced inflation. This time we have shortages and there is NO WAY a central bank can prevent this type of inflation by raising interest rates. If anything, it will only propel the shortages so we have the ironic situation that economic decline is unfolding into 2023, but the shortages will get worse causing even higher inflation ahead.

Hence, capital is retreating out of confusion creating a period of low tide. But the standard impact is DEFLATION but that means demand is declining relative to supply. Now we have a decline in supply because of the regulations and war. Consequently, prices will rise even in a recession because it is a shortage of supply, not a decline in demand. It is this lack of understanding that is creating the liquity crisis.

As far as people taking my explanations, it is impossible to reach such conclusions unless you lived there and participated in those events.

Buttigieg Blames Private Sector for Formula Shortage


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted May 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, the man who suggested everyone immediately switch to electric vehicles to combat the “Putin gas hike,” has a new message for American parents struggling to feed their babies – deal with it.

Buttigieg appeared on CBS and could not contain his utter ignorance and lack of empathy. “This is a capitalist country. The government does not make baby formula, nor should it. Companies make formula. And one of those companies, a company which, by the way, seems to have 40% market share, messed up and is unable to confirm that a plant, a major plant, is safe and free of contamination,” he stated, absolving government of any guilt. The baby formula shortage began BEFORE Abbott had a formula recall.

Luckily reporter Margaret Brennan was able to explain the situation to the confused politician. Buttigieg said the shutdown has nothing to do with a shortage of ingredients. “No, it is a factor that has led to price. Inflation is one of the factors among many that has been blamed for months of problems with baby formula even before the recall in February,” Brennan reminded him. He maintained that the private sector has the ability to make more formula, and Brennan reminded him that right now America is importing baby formula from Europe as its strategy.

The Biden Administration happily sends $40 billion off to Ukraine without hesitation but refuses to fund the problems we are facing at home. This nationwide formula shortage is an extremely serious issue that US politicians simply disregard. A fraction of the money spent on Ukraine could have fixed the Michigan plant that closed after the recall, and it could have been used to create new manufacturing plants and import more formula in the meantime.

J6 Committee Issues Subpoenas to Five House Republican Members


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance 

The entire premise of the J6 committee is a farce.  The overwhelming majority of Americans fully understand it is a political exercise between Democrats in congress and their hired Lawfare allies.  The goal is to label their political opposition as extremists, block and/or tarnish President Trump and manufacture a false premise to advance the Democrat 2022 election goals.

Despite this reality the effort continues in order to fuel their far-left base and media allies.

Today, the House committee triggered subpoenas against House republican members.  The subpoenas were sent to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (U-DC), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Rep Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Mo Brooks (R-Ala.). All five of the house members had previously rejected investigators’ requests for voluntarily testimony.

The subpoena authority is likely, hopefully, to be challenged in court.  The premise of a House committee issuing subpoena’s to the political opposition of the same House membership appears to violate the function of government on many levels.

WASHINGTON DC – […] The Republican leader indicated he might not comply with the subpoena.

“My view on the committee has not changed,” said McCarthy, who added he had not yet seen the subpoena. “They’re not conducting a legitimate investigation. It seems as though they just want to go after their political opponents.”

The select committee demanded testimony from the five lawmakers in the final week of May.

Members of the select panel have wrestled for months with the question of how to handle their GOP colleagues. The Capitol riot committee’s chair, Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), had previously doubted the wisdom of that subpoenaing lawmakers, as that would likely trigger a lengthy court fight unlikely to be resolved before in the current Congress.

But the select panel’s thinking appears to have changed, as every avenue of the probe led investigators toward fellow House members.

Some of the subpoena targets — and several other GOP lawmakers — were regularly in contact with Trump and the White House in the weeks leading up to Jan. 6. They helped amplify false claims about the integrity of the 2020 election and were among the earliest to call on colleagues to challenge the results.

But members were mindful that demanding testimony from lawmakers would potentially set a precedent. While House and Senate ethics committees have subpoenaed members and staff before, there’s little precedent for an investigative committee — particularly one mainly guided by the majority party — turning its subpoena powers on fellow members of the House.  (read more)

The committee is desperate to find something, anything, that can justify all of the time and expense they have been consuming in the effort.  The clock is running out fast and the pressure is building internally. As a target of their investigation, and as a recipient of one of these subpoenas’, I can assure readers of the ridiculousness of the people conducting the investigation fishing expedition.  It is nonsense.  All of it.

Take your pick of ultra-MAGA graphics, either one is appropriate…

Classic…

Modern…

The Fed & The Collapse of Socialism


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted May 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Been following Martin since 2008 (Gold ride) – he is the only one who has been right AU and AG top 2011.
****Important question for Martin, please
How can the fed raise rates with governments owing so much debt please ???? what are the consequences of debt restructured? 100 year treasury real estate
Thanks you so much for sharing all your insights

JT

ANSWER: The Federal Reserve is independent. Despite all the nonsense that these pretend analysts attribute everything to the actions of the Fed, if they really knew their history, they would realize that the Fed has often been at war with the White House. You cannot be an objective analyst when you predetermine a conclusion based upon a theory you choose to believe. This is the sad state of analysis these days. People start with the conclusion and then cherry-pick the facts to support what they think should be the outcome. This is what has plagued gold analysis, but the very same process has doomed climate change analysis and the destruction of the world economy.

Unfortunately, when it comes to the Quantity Theory of Money, these analysts take the position of politicians and exonerate themselves of all responsibility for their reckless fiscal spending. They endlessly try to bribe the people to vote for them. I have stated many times, pre-1971, when it was illegal to borrow against an E-Bond, for example, the theory was printing money increased the supply and was inflationary. Thus, borrowing did not increase the money supply and was not inflationary. But when you can post T-Bills as collateral and trade the markets, that theory is no longer valid, so debt is now simply money that pays interest the way it began in 1861. We seem to always return to the starting place, like the game of Monopoly where you must pass Go every trip around the board.

Socialism is the worst form of government; just look at the Democrats. They do not know how to run for office without promising free something or other. It is never about the fate of the world, the nation, or our families. They are promoting war because they assume that the people will not change the government in the middle of a war. They have no problem watching our people die.

The Fed has ZERO control over fiscal spending. Nevertheless, the Fed has been itself brainwashed, and because everyone blames them for inflation, they will be compelled to raise rates or suffer the calls for their overthrow. The increased cost in the deficit will never be blamed on them — only the inflation rate. This is why the central banks have ZERO control over the economy anymore. Soon, people will wake up and realize that this statement is true. When they do, we will get a 1987-style panic.

Here is a chart of the dollar index. The dollar had already begun its decline when they stood up at the Plaza Accord, announcing they wanted the dollar down by 40%. As the dollar began to fall rapidly, other member nations complained. In February 1987, they gathered together to announce that the dollar had fallen too far and enough was enough. When the dollar continued lower, the then G7 lost all credibility, and the markets suddenly realized they were not in control.

This is what we will see once again. This type of inflation was caused by the COVID lockdowns. China may really have shut down Shanghai to push inflation even higher in the West, seeking regime change in Washington, hoping the inflation will lead to a political blood-bath for the Democrats to get the world back to some normalcy. When inflation is set in motion because of a shortage, like crop failures, raising interest rates will not suddenly make it rain.

The Fed will act out its role because it has no other choice. Its rate hike this week is only playing catch-up with the market. Rates are rising because they are supposed to reflect the inflation rates plus a profit. That’s without the Fed trying to manage the economy. Just look at the rates and ignore the pundits. You will see that the Fed is chasing the market, it is not driving the market. Hence, the Fed is being compelled to raise rates not by its own desire to prevent inflation, but to keep pace with the markets themselves.

The idiots will blame the Fed as inflation rises and blame them for not acting. There is no saving grace for the Fed. The system is collapsing and this is in fact what gives Klaus Schwab power, for they know in Europe that they can no longer borrow money to fund socialism. The answer is to default on all debt and to hide that, they need to make it sound like they are doing this for you — who they care so much about.

Hence, this default will be disguised as relieving you of all your debt when it is the governments who are defaulting, and unable to raise interest rates in Europe. This is also the backdrop to the Repo Crisis and why US banks withdrew from making markets because they did not want to take European debt as collateral, forcing the Federal Reserve to step in.

Pelosi’s delegation went to Ukraine and said the US does not want peace and it will not accept the status quo. They want total victory against Russia and they have UNCONSTITUTIONALLY declared war on Russia and they are pretending they can act unilaterally and as long as the Ukrainian people are on the ground and not American troops, then it is not formally a war that only the people can declare under the constitution. This is all a cover for the Great Default because Keynesian Economics has completely failed. The central banks CAN NOT stop this inflation nor do they control the fiscal spending. Governments are now spending whatever they want because they know the Great Default is coming. This is all part of the Great Reset pushed as the solution by the World Economic Forum.

As we move head-first into 2032, we are looking at the total collapse of not just socialism because of the inability of European governments to continue to borrow as the Fed raises rates, and they cannot, but we are also staring into the eyes of the collapse of Republican forms of government on a global scale.

Plastic Bag Ban


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted May 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: The grocers near me have banned plastic bags. Off timing. Grocery bills are more than I’ve ever seen ..ever. I wont buy as much if theres a few bags per trip. We are lucky to own our homes. Climate change or the food crisis? I see it as a new distraction since they talked of banning them for a long time .. so why now?

REPLY: It is not a far-fetched theory to wonder whether the push to eliminate plastics goes beyond the climate change agenda. Grocery stores have begun banning plastic bags at a time when food inflation is in the double-digits, and the supply chain stalemate has dampened availability. Think about it – the typical American will fill up their grocery cart with food. In other nations, they purchase the ingredients they need for a few days instead of going on major grocery hauls. Limiting American consumers to the bags in their possession could lead to fewer items purchased. This would lower the visibility of inflation and overall consumption.

Over the pandemic, Americans became more self-reliant and began cooking at home 49% more, according to the US Grocery Shopper Trends report. The powers that be, such as Bill Gates, have been pushing for a major change in grocery trends by requesting that first-world nations refrain from eating meat. Gates also cites climate change and not his massive investments in farmland and meat alternatives.

The Environment Agency of the UK released a report in 2011 that found reusable cotton and paper bags have a higher carbon footprint than single-use plastics. A cotton bag, for example, would need to be used 131 times to lower its impact on the environment. While no one is saying plastic bags are ideal for the environment, the rush to ban them is not entirely due to climate change concerns. I believe they are also aiming to change consumer habits at the grocery store.