The UK is Not Prepared for a Prolonged Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Nov 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

People are simply not prepared for a sharp economic downturn. The Money and Pensions Service conducted a poll in the UK in which it found around 25% of adults have under £100 in savings. The 3,000-person survey found that 17% reported having absolutely nothing set aside. Around 5% reportedly had under £50, while 4% had between £50 and £100.

The drastically increased cost of living has many living paycheck to paycheck. The Building Societies Association (BSA), as reported by the BBC, conducted a separate survey that found that 35% of people in the UK simply stopped saving due to inflation. Around 36% said they are already dipping into their savings accounts to pay the bills.

The Bank of England is anticipating a long recession ahead. The central bank sees economic conditions contracting through the first half of 2024. The central bank’s prediction of five consecutive quarters of contraction would mark the longest recession in UK history. The people have not experienced the full effects of this recession, and most are simply not prepared for what lies ahead.

2022 WEC: In the Dollar We Trust


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Economic Conference Re-Posted Nov 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

At the World Economic Conference in 2021, the Armstrong Socrates model predicted that 2022 was going to be volatile and chaotic featuring a strong US dollar, a huge move in interest rates, a major bond market decline, fertilizer and food shortages, as well as escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

What now? Socrates forecast that 2023 will be more volatile and chaotic, featuring violent moves across all markets as monetary and geopolitical tensions and debt problems intensify.

At this year’s World Economic Conference, November 11-13, Martin Armstrong will talk about what’s next for the US dollar and other currencies, the liquidity/credit crisis, as well as price targets for oil, gold, stocks, bonds/interest rates, and stocks.

Give yourself an “unfair” advantage over the markets by joining us at this year’s conference remotely or in person. Meet Martin Armstrong – have your questions answered and get the best roadmap for 2023 and beyond in the investment business.

i Phone Production Halted in China


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Nov 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

China is losing business by implementing lockdowns that also prolong the global supply chain shortage. The Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone in Henan province is currently under lockdown. This is where Apple’s largest manufacturing plant is located. The Chinese government said that the lockdown would last for only seven days, but we have seen their lockdowns expand numerous times. All it takes is one single case of COVID for the policy to change, and businesses cannot plan ahead.

Foxconn, the largest iPhone manufacturer, stated that they experienced a COVID outbreak in their factory. Foxconn already requires employees to take a COVID test within 24 hours of entering the building, and vaccinations are highly encouraged.

Apple’s earnings report released last week showed that the company remains strong. However, their iPhone revenue failed to meet expectations. Apple has been unable to provide fiscal guidance since 2020 due to uncertainty.

To avoid this uncertainty, Apple is moving around 5% of its global iPhone 14 production to India. Analysts at JPMorgan believe the company may produce a quarter of all iPhones in India by 2025. India also happens to be the second-largest smartphone market in the world, but Apple only secured 3.8% of the market last year as it competes with Xiaomi and Samsung.

“The new iPhone 14 lineup introduces groundbreaking new technologies and important safety capabilities. We’re excited to be manufacturing iPhone 14 in India,” the company stated in September, hinting at the global fear of the Chinese government using technology for intelligence purposes. The low cost of manufacturing items in China may not outweigh the revenue loss caused by abrupt and frequent lockdowns.