Category Destruction of the Supply Chain

Nov 11 2022

The UK is Not Prepared for a Prolonged Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Nov 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

People are simply not prepared for a sharp economic downturn. The Money and Pensions Service conducted a poll in the UK in which it found around 25% of adults have under £100 in savings. The 3,000-person survey found that 17% reported having absolutely nothing set aside. Around 5% reportedly had under £50, while 4% had between £50 and £100.

The drastically increased cost of living has many living paycheck to paycheck. The Building Societies Association (BSA), as reported by the BBC, conducted a separate survey that found that 35% of people in the UK simply stopped saving due to inflation. Around 36% said they are already dipping into their savings accounts to pay the bills.

The Bank of England is anticipating a long recession ahead. The central bank sees economic conditions contracting through the first half of 2024. The central bank’s prediction of five consecutive quarters of contraction would mark the longest recession in UK history. The people have not experienced the full effects of this recession, and most are simply not prepared for what lies ahead.

Nov 7 2022

Bolsonaro Hands Over Power to Lula             


Armstrong Economics Blog/South America Re-Posted Nov 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Jair Bolsonaro did not immediately concede to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after the close election of 49.1%-50.9%. This is the closest presidential race in Brazil since 1985 and marks Bolsonaro’s first defeat in his political career. Bolsonaro supporters held mass protests across the nation to protest Lula’s victory and blocked hundreds of major roadways. Bolsonaro first sided with the protestors, saying they felt “indignation and a sense of injustice.”

As our computer warned, there would be intense politically motivated civil unrest worldwide this November.

The intense backlash from across the globe caused Bolsonaro to change course. “I know you are upset… Me too. But we have to keep our heads straight,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted online. “I will make an appeal to you: clear the highways.” Bolsonaro confirmed with Brazil’s Supreme Court that he will hand over power to Lula. “I have always played within the four lines of the constitution,” he said, without declaring defeat.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a member of the World Economic Forum. World leaders also affiliated with the “elite” group have congratulated him on his win. His policies will align with other WEF leaders and is a glimpse into what to expect from Brazil going forward. Bolsonaro’s words to the people will not eliminate the anger they feel nor will it prevent the people from continuing to protest.

Nov 6 2022

Interview: There May Not Be a 2024 Election


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Nov 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here to see my latest interview with Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.

I will be discussing all of this and more at the World Economic Conference this weekend (virtual tickets are still available).

Commentary from Greg Hunter:

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says, “The cheating in the midterm election next week is going to be so great that it is almost impossible to make a prediction. . . . In a fair midterm election, the Republicans would win the House and the Senate.”

So,m what does his Socrates program see for next week?  Armstrong, says, “It’s going to be tight, and the Republicans have a shot at taking the House.  Technically, they should take the House and the Senate.  I am just not sure.  The corruption is so bad, it’s crazy.  Pennsylvania sent out hundreds of thousands of ballots to people who are not documented or even American.  I’ve gotten emails from people in Canada, they are getting mail-in ballots.  They mailed them to Canada. . . .Where this ends up, who knows?  It’s just so corrupt, it is over the top.  It doesn’t matter who wins.  Nobody is going to accept this thing, and that is the problem.”

The cheating is going to be so in your face President Trump may not even be able to run for President two years from now.  Armstrong contends, “We may not even have an election in 2024.  It is not looking very good, and it’s probably because this election is not going to be accepted.  When it is so over-the-top corrupt, what do you do for the next one?  The United States will not exist after 2032.  After 2028 and 2029, we are going to have to redesign a government from scratch.  America is being destroyed.  Republics always end in absolute corruption.  We just saw the same thing happen in Brazil.  They staged a major effort to take Bolsonaro out. . . . This is a worldwide effort.  They had to get rid of Trump.  The other one who stood in their way is Bolsonaro.  Then there is Putin (Russia) and Xi Jinping (China).  I think you are going to have historians look back at this 50 years from now, and they will call this period ‘The Climate Change Wars’. . . .They are trying to take down as much oil energy capacity as possible.”

Armstrong is still seeing very strong signals on domestic violence everywhere.  Armstrong explains, “Our computer is showing it’s going to be a rocket launch for volatility and civil unrest next year.”

Armstrong also contends there will be a major loss of confidence in government around the world.  That means gold will start having big demand from big money.  Armstrong also predicts, “The whole monetary system as we know it is collapsing.  That was what the bond crisis in the UK was about.”

There is much more in the 1-hour and 7-minute interview for 11.5.22.

Nov 6 2022

New Interview: World War III, Commodities, and Overthrowing Putin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Nov 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Check out the audio above for my latest interview with Cris Sheridan from Financial Sense.

Nov 4 2022

Portland’s Homeless Crisis – A Tale of a Blue City


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Nov 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Oregon is a beautiful picturesque state. Mountains, waterfalls, and beautiful beaches – Oregon was once a desirable place to live. Portland was a promising metropolitan area before politicians completely destroyed the city with light-on-crime policies.

 The Portland Business Journal reported that high-earning residents relocated to areas like Deschutes County, Arizona, and Texas. As in all societies, the highest earners who have the ability to relocate are the first to flee crumbling cities. Multnomah County saw a decline of 2,000 taxpayers between 2019 and 2020, but more have likely fled.

As of June, the average rent in Portland was $1,700, but many will tell you that estimate is low. This is not why homelessness has spiked. Over the past two years alone, the homeless population increased by 25%! Homeless camps have moved into the suburbs as people simply have nowhere to go. The city has attempted to authorize homeless encampment sites in certain areas, but there is not enough room. Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler (D) has done nothing to address the mental health and drug abuse crises at the root of the problem. This is an extremely sad situation, as no one should live in this manner.

The pandemic added to the crisis, but Portland declared a state of emergency back in 2015 due to the drastic number of unhoused people. Oregon legalized hard drugs in February 2021. People may legally carry heroin, cocaine, methadone, oxycodone, and even methamphetamine for personal use. Most users will only face a $100 fine. Drug overdoses rose by 41% in 2020 from the year prior.

As we have seen in many Democrat-run cities, theft is basically legal. The Organized Retail Crime Association of Oregon (ORCAOR) conducted a poll that found 95% of businesses are unhappy with the relaxed crime laws, and 80% admitted theft had risen significantly. “We’ve seen an increase in assaults, in drug use within the stores, threats, individuals threatening with weapons,” said Jeremy Girard, the president of ORCAOR, who conducted the survey in late spring. Around 80% said there was not an adequate police response, but that is because they voted to defund the police and urged them to turn a blind eye to crime.

Businesses are closing, and people are fleeing the city. The Oregon Mayors Association wants to spend $123.5 million annually to prolong the problem rather than address the causes. Another example of poor policies ruining a blue city and asking taxpayers for more funding to throw money at the problem.

Nov 3 2022

i Phone Production Halted in China


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Nov 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

China is losing business by implementing lockdowns that also prolong the global supply chain shortage. The Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone in Henan province is currently under lockdown. This is where Apple’s largest manufacturing plant is located. The Chinese government said that the lockdown would last for only seven days, but we have seen their lockdowns expand numerous times. All it takes is one single case of COVID for the policy to change, and businesses cannot plan ahead.

Foxconn, the largest iPhone manufacturer, stated that they experienced a COVID outbreak in their factory. Foxconn already requires employees to take a COVID test within 24 hours of entering the building, and vaccinations are highly encouraged.

Apple’s earnings report released last week showed that the company remains strong. However, their iPhone revenue failed to meet expectations. Apple has been unable to provide fiscal guidance since 2020 due to uncertainty.

To avoid this uncertainty, Apple is moving around 5% of its global iPhone 14 production to India. Analysts at JPMorgan believe the company may produce a quarter of all iPhones in India by 2025. India also happens to be the second-largest smartphone market in the world, but Apple only secured 3.8% of the market last year as it competes with Xiaomi and Samsung.

“The new iPhone 14 lineup introduces groundbreaking new technologies and important safety capabilities. We’re excited to be manufacturing iPhone 14 in India,” the company stated in September, hinting at the global fear of the Chinese government using technology for intelligence purposes. The low cost of manufacturing items in China may not outweigh the revenue loss caused by abrupt and frequent lockdowns.

Nov 1 2022

Halloween Spending Amid Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Nov 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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The National Retail Federation estimated that 172 million Americans spent $10.6 billion on Halloween this year, or $100 per person. Around $1.2 billion went into costumes for children, not to be outdone by adults spending $1.7 billion on their own costumes. Around $710 million was spent on pet costumes as well. Around 67% of consumers handed out candy, 51% decorated, 47% wore a costume, 44% carved pumpkins, and 26% participated in a Halloween party. Halloween spending is back to pre-pandemic levels, but inflation is to blame.

Food, candy, pumpkins, décor – all of these items cost significantly more in 2022, but Americans are still willing to spend. Candy alone is up 13.1% from last year, surpassing food inflation at 11.2%.

This is foreshadowing for the Christmas season, which historically is the most lucrative time for retailers and a big boost for overall GDP. Around 25% of all retail spending occurs in November and December each year, but many have already begun holiday shopping as stores are forced to offer more appealing sales. Retailers who fail to profit in the remaining months of 2022 will be forced to downgrade their forecasts and re-evaluate their businesses in the current economy. Layoffs and store closures are likely, and many retailers have already halted hiring. Americans do not have more disposable income to spend on the holidays, but those who can are willing to pay inflated prices to participate in age-old traditions.