Yellen & Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I have been a follower for years. Your model has correctly forecasted every major trend from civil unrest to disease. But your forecast that this wave would be commodity inflation based on shortages years in advance, proves that you deserve the Noble Prize. Absolutely no analyst did that although many now pretend they are forecasting this trend. I have to ask. Why is the government refusing to use your model?

HK

ANSWER: The entire economic field sells itself as the solution. They reject the idea of any defined business cycle BECAUSE that means there can be no manipulation. Just look at Schwab and his World Economic Forum, which will be one day cast as the evil emperor in some future version of “Planet of the Manipulators.” If they listened to this model and followed it, they would reject Schwab’s obsession with Marxism. As long as the economy is random, then they can manipulate it. Following my model strips them of that power.

There are still people in the former Iron Curtain countries that miss communism. Why? It is the same in prison. You become institutionalized and have no responsibilities, including taxes. Someone hands you a broom, you sweep the street, and it takes not a single mental thought of how to actually do the job. You can’t even be fired.

Joe Biden Demands New Gun Control Measures, Assault Weapon Ban, Magazine Capacity Limits, Red Flag Laws, Gun Mfr Liability and More


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 

With barely more than a third of the country supporting the installed occupant of the White House, Joe Biden took to the podium tonight to demand a litany of new gun restrictions.  Biden called for the banning of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines through reinstating the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban, noting that if that can’t happen, the government should raise the legal age to purchase such weapons from 18 to 21.

Biden also called on congress to construct new federal background checks, which sounded a lot like a federal registration of gun ownership.  Also, he is demanding “red flag” laws that will allow schools, counsellors, doctors and others to flag an individual as a threat to themselves or others, thereby removing their right to gun ownership.   Biden also said he want’s congress to ban large capacity magazines limiting all firearms to five bullets.   WATCH:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Warns to Prepare for Economic Hurricane as Biden Administration Switches U.S. Economy to Green New Deal Agenda


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 | sundance 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon warned of a “hurricane” as the economy struggles against fiscally induced growth, quantitative tightening and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mr Dimon was delivering remarks at a conference sponsored by Alliance Bernstein Holdings Wednesday.

Higher oil prices, higher fuel prices, higher energy prices and much higher food prices are all looming over the horizon as the Biden administration switches the baseline for the U.S economy from oil and gas to the Green New Deal energy program. Things are going to get worse, the question is, how much worse? WATCH:

The White House is pretending the U.S. government does not have full control over what is happening in the economy.  The media are pretending not to know that the White House is avoiding admitting the agenda and economic pain is intentional and unavoidable.  The republican politicians are pretending the Biden economic transition program is because the White House is incompetent.  All of these -and so many more- are just pretenses.

What is being done by the government, in this decision to switch from an oil and gas economy into a wind and solar economy, is being done on purpose. Yes, everyone at every level of government, both political parties and every agency within it, and the entirety of the corporate media are pretending not to know this is the Green New Deal taking place.

Small Business Payrolls Collapse in New ADP Report for May, Total Employment Result Far Below Expectations


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 | sundance

You do not need anyone to affirm that Main Street is in trouble, you can see it all around you.  Inflation is crushing blue-collar and white-collar workers as prices continue to rise on essential goods. Consumer spending is now prioritized around the higher cost of housing, energy, gasoline and food.  Family earnings are spent before the paychecks arrive for most Main St workers, and now we are starting to see the alarming result economic contraction, beginning with small businesses.

That’s the message within the ADP private sector payroll report released today [DATA HERE], which shows a contraction in small business employment.  Economists were looking for private payroll increases in the 300,00 range; but the result was far lower at 128,000.   Small businesses lost 91,000 jobs in May.  Main Street is in trouble.

WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) – U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May, which would suggest demand for labor was starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tightening financial conditions, though job openings remain extremely high.

Private payrolls rose by 128,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Thursday. Data for April was revised down to show 202,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 247,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls increasing by 300,000 jobs. (read more)

Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti Sentenced to Four Years in Prison


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 | sundance 

Michael Avenatti, a man of exceptionally low moral character and failed integrity, who was also the mainstream media’s one-time all-star favorite liar, was convicted of fraud and theft from his former Client Stormy Daniels.  Today he was sentenced.

Avenatti is currently serving a 30-month prison sentence for corporate extortion of Nike and was just sentenced to an additional four years in prison for wire fraud and identity theft in the Stormy Daniel Case.

(Via CNN) – Disgraced attorney Michael Avenatti was sentenced to four years in prison for stealing nearly $300,000 from his former client, adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

District Judge Jesse Furman said Avenatti’s conduct was “so brazen and egregious” adding, he “took advantage of a vulnerable victim given her unorthodox career and somewhat unorthodox beliefs.”

Avenatti was convicted in February of one count of wire fraud and one count of aggravated identity theft. He faced as much as 20 years on the wire fraud charge and a mandatory two-year sentence for aggravated identity theft.

Avenatti is currently serving a 30-month prison sentence for attempting to extort over $20 million from Nike by threatening to go public with damaging information unless they paid him. He goes on trial next month in California on charges alleging that he embezzled $10 million in settlement funds from at least five clients. He has also been charged with tax fraud and bankruptcy fraud and pleaded not guilty to the charges. (read more)

Is Russia on the Defensive?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov is warning the US that they have become instigators in the Russia-Ukraine war. “We believe that the U.S. is deliberately pouring oil on the fire. The U.S. is obviously holding the line that it will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian,” Peskov recently told reporters, according to Reuters.

Peskov’s warning comes shortly after Russia deemed most “unfriendly” nations as “hostile,” and with good cause. In an interview with PBS, Peskov said that President Biden’s suggestion to remove Putin from power was taken as a personal insult as the people of Russia, not the president of a foreign nation, determine Russian leadership.

Peskov speaks clearly and confidently; he does not seem like a madman hell-bent on war. In fact, he stated that Russia never wanted war. For decades, Russia has told the West that they are “afraid of NATO” moving closer into their territory. “Please take care of it and do not push us into the corner,” the Kremlin spokesman explained. In Russia’s eyes, they are on the defensive. Putin strictly warned other nations not to interfere in Russia-Ukraine relations. Peskov now states that the West, not Ukraine, is “leading the war against us.”

As for the claim that Russia will launch nukes, Peskov made it clear that Russia has no plans to do so, but would under an existential threat. He clarified that the “existence of the state” and “special military operations in Ukraine” have nothing to do with one another. Ukraine certainly cannot back Russia in a corner to which it feels it must implode its way out, but the West does and is pushing that boundary daily.

Americans Blame Biden for Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Unfortunately for Biden, the Great Unwashed is not gullible enough to accept his explanation that Putin is to blame for inflation. A Convention of States Action/Trafalgar Group survey found that most respondents (59.9%) believe Biden’s policies are the “leading contributor” to rising prices. Around 87.9% of Republicans and 61.1% of Independents cited Biden as the leading culprit, while only 55.2% of Democrats were ready to admit that Biden is destroying the economy.

Biden insists the American Rescue Plan and vast overseas donations did not contribute to inflation. He insists preventing America from being energy independent did not contribute to inflation. Even his own Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cannot stand by these lies. Yellen insisted in March 2021 that inflation posed a “small risk” for America. In May 2021, Yellen said inflation would not become a problem. Then the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was signed into law. Biden eliminated oil permits and allowed ports to clog.

This Tuesday, Yellen finally admitted she and the Biden Administration were wrong about inflation. “As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that boosted energy and food prices, and supply bottlenecks, that have affected our economy badly that I, at the time, didn’t fully understand,” Yellen told CNN. “But we recognize that now.”

Although they recognize the issue, there is no plan in place to implement policies to ease inflation. Upon meeting with Fed Chair Powell, Biden simply said that it is the Fed’s place to solve the crisis he created. “My plan to address inflation starts with a simple proposition: Respect the Fed. Respect the Fed’s independence,” Biden said. Since the Fed is independent of the government, he has no choice but to “respect the Fed’s independence.”

The Rise in Violence – Who to Blame?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While the Texas school shooting is a politician’s dream, for they suddenly can pretend to care and look authoritative, the real culprit here, I fear, has been the COVID-19 lockdowns. What government will not talk about is the statistics. Homicides increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020. Overall, violence and aggravated assaults have increased.

The homicide rates normally increase in the summer months. The real culprit may be the additional social interaction that happens when people spend more time outdoors during the summer months, NewsNation reports. There’s simply a greater number of interactions happening, which means there are also more opportunities for them to go awry.

Everywhere we look, homicides are up. In Chicago, 228 people have been killed this year alone. In Philadelphia, over 200 homicides have already taken place in 2022. Houston exceeded 100 homicides so far in 2022.

The National Library of Medicine reported a drastic increase in homicides post-lockdowns in Peru. Even CNN reported that a series of homicides took place during the first six months of  2021. In 22 cities, the number of murders increased by 16% or greater compared to the same period in 2020 and by 42% compared to the first six months of 2019.

So while the elites are listening to Klaus Schwab, who will probably become an evil villain for a future movie, there is ZERO understanding of human nature. The sharp rise in homicides is NOT because of guns; lockdowns have driven many to extreme behavior and stress. There was a man killed over an argument involving a parking spot. I have a friend who worked in an office in Philadelphia. The violence is so great and random that the staff no longer need to go into the office.

Monkeypox is less deadly than smallpox, with a mortality rate below 4 percentNevertheless, there are those in governments actually talking about lockdown 2.0. Johns Hopkins University reported, “Lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe had little or no impact in reducing deaths from COVID-19, according to a new analysis. The lockdowns during the early phase of the pandemic in 2020 reduced COVID-19 mortality by about 0.2%, said a broad review of multiple scientific studies. We find no evidence that lockdowns, school closures, border closures, and limiting gatherings have had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality,” the researchers wrote.

I can say that I was tested for COVID-19 five times, and all were negative. I was still thrown into a COVID wing in the hospital, and when I explained I knew nobody with COVID, I was told that it did not matter. The nurses said it could travel in the air or I could have contracted it from pumping gas into my car. So I asked, “Do masks do not work?” They said, “Pretty much.” I asked why I needed TWO negative tests to be released. “Does one test not work?” They admitted that the tests were invalid. So after FIVE negative tests, they said, “OK, but we still think you had it.”

Another friend said his son in his early 20s is lost. Since the lockdowns, he stayed in his room, glued to social media. He will no longer have a conversation with his father. These lockdowns not only FAILED to work, but they appear to have caused significant damage psychologically to many, and the stress appears to have manifested in violence. It is time we face the fact that guns do not kill — people do. We need to respect what is taking place and stop the experiments for political power. Our computer’s forecast of a rise in civil unrest is manifesting before our very eyes.

The Judiciary Refuses to Rule on the 2020 Election


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law Re-Posted Jun 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed the lawsuit calling into question the 2020 election. The media immediately jumps on it saying that the lawsuit relied on “baseless conspiracy theories” spread by Trump and his supporters that the election was stolen in favor of Joe Biden. This is in itself FAKE NEWS and a deliberate attempt by the media to continue this narrative undermining the corruption in the election system of the United States. The media refuses to explain the truth for, in fact, their own conspiracy theory was not the basis for dismissing the lawsuit.

Among others, the lawsuit named Facebook and Denver-based Dominion Voting Systems, whose election machines remain the focus of voter fraud allegations. The court ruling had NOTHING to do with the validity of the allegations. The court found that eight plaintiffs from across the U.S. had no standing to assert that the outcome of the election “violated the constitutional rights of every registered voter in the United States.” “NO STANDING” means they had no right to bring the action and it has nothing to do with the validity of the claims.

U.S. Magistrate Judge N. Reid Neureiter dismissed the lawsuit in April 2021, finding the plaintiffs failed to show they had suffered specific injuries due to the election result and thus had no standing to bring the lawsuit.

Clearly, the courts just do not want to get involved and they will continue to use every possible loophole they can argue NOT to rule on the claims. The Judiciary has simply REFUSED to defend the Constitution or to allow such a case to go to trial and let the people decide on the evidence. Their refusal to address this issue leaves the 2022 election ripe for civil unrest for whoever loses, will argue it was rigged. That is probably part of the Panic Cycle our computer has targeted for the 2022 mid-term election.

More Pretending, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Pretends She Got It Wrong on Inflation, She Did Not


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 | Sundance 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has more financial and analytical resources at her fingertips than thousand hedge funds combined. When Secretary Yellen claims today that she “got it wrong” about inflation, what she is doing is continuing the game of pretending; she’s positioning the administration as incompetent, not deliberate.

The illusion of incompetence plays into the scheme of hiding the fact the administration is working through a purposeful strategy. In the game of pretending; and under the current circumstances; it is better to be seen as incompetent than recognized as working with malicious intent.  This is the illusion behind Joe Biden’s usefulness.

This is also the organized pretending game within DC that too few people will accept or admit. The Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman are not making mistakes, they are working on a specific agenda and economic plan. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was not late to raise interest rates, he waited on purpose. He waited for the political reason of waiting until the triggered 2021 inflation spike cycled through the full calendar year.

These are not monetary policy leaders making monetary policy mistakes. These are monetary policy political ideologues, carrying out a political agenda within the U.S. economy. This is part of what National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese would call the “economic transition.” WATCH this through the correct prism: