They See It Coming – Fitch Joins S&P to Downgrade USA Credit Rating


Posted originally on the CTH on August 2, 2023 | Sundance 

Collapse is never a sudden occurrence; it is an outcome of gradual erosion over time. A weakening that takes place almost invisible to those who pass through the construct, until eventually, at an uneventful time in the mechanics of history, the process gives way.

Fitch has joined with the prior position of Standard & Poors to downgrade the USA credit rating. The weight of debt, in combination with reverberations from the continued hammering deep inside the political fundamental change operation, has triggered another flare.

In the bigger picture, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by the latest focus on unsustainable economic policy, aka The Green New Deal. The efforts of the fiscal, monetary and economic policy are all aligned to shrink the U.S. economy, thereby creating the era of “sustainable energy” a possibility. Unfortunately, this is akin to a household intentionally shrinking their income while at the same time taking on credit card debt. The process itself is not sustainable.

(Reuters) – Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the U.S. government’s top credit rating, a move that drew an angry response from the White House and surprised investors, coming despite the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis two months ago.

Traders’ immediate response was to embark on a safe-haven push out of stocks and into government bonds and the dollar.

Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills.

[…] “In Fitch’s view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025,” the rating agency said in a statement.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disagreed with Fitch’s downgrade, in a statement that called it “arbitrary and based on outdated data.”

[…] In a previous debt ceiling crisis in 2011, Standard & Poor’s cut the top “AAA” rating by one notch a few days after a debt ceiling deal, citing political polarization and insufficient steps to right the nation’s fiscal outlook. Its rating is still “AA-plus” – its second highest.

After that downgrade, U.S. stocks tumbled and the impact of the rating cut was felt across global stock markets, which were in the throes of the euro zone financial meltdown.

In May, Fitch had placed its “AAA” rating of U.S. sovereign debt on watch for a possible downgrade, citing downside risks, including political brinkmanship and a growing debt burden. (read More)

What do Barack Obama and Joe Biden have in common?  They were both in office, executing an identical economic, fiscal and monetary policy, when the USA credit was downgraded.

Trying to Make Heads or Tails about Recessions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jul 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Looking at Socrates,  do you think that these people who were constantly calling for a recession because there were two quarters that declined with covid really need revision? Socrates was correct, no recession. But it is showing major turning points in 2024 which seem to align with your old ECM forecast calling for commodity inflation into 2024. How would you define a recession?

EJ

ANSWER: In trading, reactions are 1 to 3 time units. I believe that the same definition should be used for classifying a recession. They define a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines. If you look at the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009, you will see three consecutive quarterly declines and a rebound. If we look at the COVID recession caused by locking everyone down, that was just two consecutive quarterly declines.

I personally would argue that a true economic recession MUST exceed three consecutive declines. Here is the chart of GNP from 1929 to 1940. There were three years of negative growth. I simply think that this definition of two quarters is wrong. You can have a slight decline of 1 to even 5%, but that does not suggest a recession. In the case of 1929, that was a decline of 9.5% in 1930 – the first year. Now look at the COVID Crash, which was also a decline of 9.53%. But the difference is that the COVID decline was forced and not natural. That is why it rebounded so quickly. Now the so-called “Great Recession” of 2008-2009 only saw a decline in GDP of 3.47%.

The “Great Recession” was not really so great. It wiped out real estate and bankers but did not fundamentally alter the economy. So who is right and who is wrong will always depend upon the definition. Yes, the AI Timing Arrays point to a recession starting Next Year by their definition. This will most likely be caused by the decline in confidence that will lead to UNCERTAINTY, and as such, the consumer will contract. Up to now, the continued expansion of the economy into 2024 has also been fueled by the shift in assets from public to private.

As originally forecast, we should have seen a commodity boom into 2023,

and we should expect a highly authoritarian attempt by 2028.

CBDC & the Fall of Western Society


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jul 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You said that when Rome fell it took 700 years before gold coins reappeared. Are we facing something like that again?

PO

ANSWER: Yes, when Rome fell, gold continued in the East under the Byzantine and Islamic Empires. However, in Europe, the last Western emperor was Romulus Augustus (475-476AD) who was a puppet anyhow. He was a young son, whereas today, we have senile leaders who are puppets and incapable of independent rational thought. The first gold coin to reappear in Western Europe was that of Frederick II of Sicily (1231-1250AD). The Augustale was a gold denomination of about 5 and a half grams which Frederick II introduced to Sicily in 1231AD, and it was primarily issued for international trade.

Fibonacci-1

Actually, Fibonacci (1170-1240 AD) published in 1202 his “Liber Abaci” (Book of Abacus). He introduced Hindu-Arabic numerals into Western culture. Suddenly, this allowed the calculation of numbers that were not taught in schools and was unknown in Christian circles. Only a very small group of intellectuals had access to translations of the Arab mathematician al-Khwarizmi (780-850 AD). The techniques that Fibonacci introduced were groundbreaking to re-establish a culture that lost its identity with the fall of Rome. Fibonacci illustrated practical problems on how to calculate profit margin, money changing, barter, conversion of weights and measures, partnerships, and, last but not least, interest. He also introduced some geometry and algebra.

However, Fibonacci’s work was so earth-shattering it became the topic of discussion and caught the attention of King Frederick II of Sicily. I believe it was Fibonacci’s introduction to mathematics that also inspired Frederick II to even reintroduce gold coinage in order to trade with the outside world. At the time, that included the Arabs as well as the Byzantines. The gold dinar was the Islamic medieval gold coin first issued in 696–697AD by Caliph Abd al-Malik ibn Marwan with a weight of 4.25 grams. Frederick II made his coin about 1 gram heavier in order to project economic power.

The introduction of CBDC is highly dangerous in war; even a nuclear blast also sends out an EM pulse that will destroy electronics. If I were Russia or China, I would NOT move to any sort of digital currency and then use an EMP against the United States. The entire economy would collapse. People would not even be able to buy anything. We have idiots in power who are so greedy, looking at the power this will place in their hands, they are ignoring the risks. This could mark the collapse of Western society, sending us back to the days of Barter.

The Post-2032 era would most likely be fragmented rather than national states as we know them today. There will most likely emerge regional currencies, as we have witnessed throughout history many times. Even during the Great Depression, over 200 US cities resorted to issuing their own money.

Fauci Commits Perjury Before Congress?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jul 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Recipe For Perfect Pancakes


Posted originally on the CTH on July 11, 2023 

Making good pancakes is one of the easiest processes; however, you need just the right ingredients.  Consider this recipe next time:

2 large eggs

1 1/4 cups whole milk

4 tablespoons melted butter

1/4 teaspoon salt

1 3/4 cups flour

2 teaspoons baking powder

1 tablespoon sugar

It stinks that the better option is to communicate like this; alas, sometimes it is necessary simply to avoid the Eye of Sauron – Google. Which is really the reason for writing this.

Our tech overlords really do not like CTH for several reasons, and they put blocks in the internet path in order to make things more difficult.

The two primary reasons they dislike us are:

First, we make all CTH content available free for duplication anywhere anyone wants, along with free reign to change, enhance or make it unique.  The lack of a primary source attribution makes it harder for the tech control systems to control the information flow, which is part of the reason we do it.

Second, we do not need Google, or any other search engine assist in order to share information.  More than 95% of all CTH visits are direct from user bookmarks to the site. This is very rare and a big annoyance for those who control the internet search engine results as a way to tamp down information.

That said, there has been a rather interesting recent development in the world of Google censorship.

With Google AI now doing most of the targeting for internet content control, the Google inputs into the automated sweep/radar now creates the flagged content for Google action.  You could always identify what Google was concerned about by looking at the content they flag for removal under their compliance system.

Google has never, not a single time, ever, set up sweep and search parameters to protect Republicans.   Content against Obama and various Democrats was always the source material they wanted to see removed.   However, for the first time ever, Google is now concerned about criticism and research related to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.  In fact, Google sweeps are now demanding the removal of content that is critical of Ron DeSantis and the RNC.

In the spreadsheet below you can see 21 CTH articles that have been flagged by Google for their extremist nature.

Research, opinion and analysis of Ron DeSantis is now labeled “dangerous”, “harmful”, and/or “derogatory” by Google.

This should not necessarily come as a surprise, because Ron DeSantis is a candidate supported by all the billionaires and major multinational corporations in the U.S 2024 election.

In addition to being ideologically skewed to the far-left, the Alphabet Google corporation is owned mostly by BlackrockVanguard and Larry Page; then come the smaller institutional investment groups.   The multinationals who control Google, also control most of the donor wealth behind Ron DeSantis.

You won’t find anyone on the DeSantis team that admits this fact, but our experience with the Google content police shows they are targeting and demanding the removal of content against the interests of Ron DeSantis.  Google supports DeSantis.

If you thought the Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush support for DeSantis was revealing, how much more revealing is it to realize Google is supporting DeSantis?  What does that tell you?

The Google blackmail goes like this….. Remove the content above, or we will pull all Google Advertising from your website.  Obviously, on our shoestring budget that sucks, but whatever… the larger point is to note how Google is concerned about “harmful claims” against Ron DeSantis.

That is quite a remarkable shift.

Remember, there are trillions at stake, ‘trillions’.  With the geopolitical dynamic being threatened and with trillions of dollars at stake, nothing is ever off the table.

When you think the people who control the world of finance and politics couldn’t possibly be organizing, coordinating and manipulating certain events, again, reevaluate your reference, because they do.

It’s a large network of aligned interests.  It does not take a lot of organization and/or the creation of some massive global conspiracy, to create outcomes of mutual benefit to all parties – when the interests of those parties are aligned inside the economics of the issue.  Instead, the process used has two components:

(1) – Identify the common enemy. Thereby everyone can act according to their institutional interests to undermine and attack that enemy.

(2) – Identify the common solution. Thereby, everyone can align to support the common objective according to their institutional capability.

Eyes of a mouse/Ears of an elephant…. and don’t forget to live your best life! 

Replay – President Trump MAGA Speech, Farmers for Trump – Council Bluffs, Iowa (Full Video)


Posted originally on the CTH on July 7, 2023 | Sundance

Earlier today President Trump kicked off a new coalition of Farmers for Trump in Council Bluffs, Iowa

While much of the first segment of the speech covers topics of significant importance to farming and agriculture, President Trump also expanded his remarks to cover current political events. WATCH:

FULL SPEECH: President Donald J. Trump Holds MAGA Rally in Council Bluffs, IA – 7/7/23

Gavin Newsom on the Campaign Trail (For Biden?)


Posted originally on the CTH on July 7, 2023 | Sundance 

Like watching a video with the sound turned off, if you are to stand back away from the distractions of the media presentation, and just look at raw data in the form of actions being taken by those who circle the world of politics, the activity points to something disconnected from the official narrative.

All of the individual components of visible activity can be accepted as they are, or they can be interpreted into a picture of what they might be.

Examples include travel and visits by political entities, changes in the dates for the 2024 presidential primaries, assemblies of groups and supporters in specific constructs and various other indications of a duality within purpose.

Throughout our analysis of the preferred ’24 outcome by those in the background who ultimately seek to control elections through the activity of front men, those artfully skilled at presenting the illusion of choice, it has always looked like the RNC/DNC preferred presentation was a Ron DeSantis -v- Gavin Newsom (win/win) contest.

The landscape of the ’24 election would then be reduced to “social issues” as distinctions between the two faces of the contest, while the economics of things – the substantive part – carries a far lesser contrast. An almost identical replay to the attempted 2016 construct of Hillary -v- Jeb.

Much like the deceptive DeSantis book tour that was really a national campaign shift, it is into this blend of visible activity where Gavin Newsom campaigning for Joe Biden has given the outward appearance of pretending to do one thing, but the goal may really be another.

If Biden is pulled from the contest at some point in the next year, it would be of great value to have the organized alternate already well known to the public in various states.

LA Times […] Newsom, who hit the road during the Fourth of July holiday weekend, told a group of roughly 50 Democrats gathered in the backyard of a mansion overlooking the Boise foothills Saturday to make the “powerful case for why we should be passionate, enthusiastic about Biden’s reelection.”

[…] “I’m really proud of this president, and I hope you are as well,” Newsom said to a crowd happy to have one of the party’s rising stars.

Saturday’s swing through Idaho didn’t just energize Biden’s much-neglected base in such a conservative corner of the West. It helped build a future one for Newsom.

Many of the Democrats who flocked to hear Newsom speak in Idaho and at a separate fundraising event earlier that day in Bend, Ore., said they thought the 55-year-old liberal governor offered a glimpse into the future of their party, a bolder, more charismatic and younger potential heir of Biden’s legacy in the post-Trump years.

[…] Newsom says he has no interest in the White House and that his cross-country travels are to promote his party and president before the 2024 election.

But his stumping for Biden tees Newsom up nicely for other job prospects, said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant in California. His public feuding with Republicans fills a “void” in his party and sends a message that he’s a Democrat willing and unafraid to take on the MAGA wing of the GOP — a crusade that helps elevate Newsom’s national profile and build a database of supporters along the way.

“He’s putting in time and effort that no one else outside the White House appears to be,” Stutzman said. “He’s acting like the candidate in waiting. (more)

At the direction of the Governor Newsom coalition, California has moved their state primary up to Super Tuesday in 2024.

Coincidentally (or not), it was this state move that recently triggered a controversy within the professionally GOPe executive committee in California. The California Republicans adjusted to this primary date change with a quiet attempt to modify the Republican distribution of delegates to a proportional method – mostly benefitting the likely second place candidate, Ron DeSantis, with a significant batch of up to 55 delegates even in defeat.

If the billionaire class, who fund the two private DNC and RNC corporations, were constructing a hopeful roadmap for a Newsom -v- Desantis objective, what would they be doing differently in California?

Nothing.

GREAT POINT by Lee Smith – The FBI May Not Be Burying the Evidence Against Joe Biden, The FBI May be Using it as Leverage Against the White House


Posted originally on the CTH on June 17, 2023 | Sundance 

In this podcast interview between former HPSCI Chairman Devin Nunes and journalists Margot Cleveland and Lee Smith, the discussion begins with the recent revelations provided by Senator Chuck Grassley about audio tapes as evidence in the Biden bribery scandal. {Direct Rumble Link}

As the story has unfolded, the Confidential Human Source who tipped off the FBI to Joe Biden taking bribes from foreign governments, also claims to have audio tapes of himself talking to Joe Biden about the issues when Biden was vice-president.  The FBI has been sitting on this Biden bribery knowledge for multiple years.

The most common opinion of the FBI motive was their intent to burying or capture negative information about Biden.  However, with the institutional corruption of the domestic national security apparatus being very visible within DOJ and FBI, Lee Smith ponders whether the FBI/DOJ might be holding back the Biden bribery material as part of their leverage against the White House.  It is an interesting angle to consider. WATCH:

Lee Smith is very wise in the ways of the Deep State.