Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Feb 4 2026

Ukraine & Trump


Posted originally on Feb 3, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

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The letter I  received from Trump, dated January 15th, discusses foreign policy, not domestic economics. It also says thank you for writing. This refers to the Peace Plan i wrote back in 2025 I was asked to write. Most of what I stated in that plan appears to have been implemented, except for my recommendation to exit NATO, which the letter addresses. However, I specifically included how this war began and laid the blame on the Neocons for installing an unelected government in Kiev and ordering them to invade the Donbas to kill Russians, trying to draw in Putin. They succeeded, but they control the press, which has been putting out the bullshit that Putin invaded “UNPROVOKED” to get young, stupid men and women to volunteer for war with the rally-around-the-flag psychological ploy to wage World War III. I believe I have shaken the ground that the Neocons stand on, so if I suddenly die by suicide, you know who really did it.

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Of course, the European press are saying that to surrender the Donbas, Ukraine will commit suicide. They love war so much and are willing to sacrifice the future of their family all for the Donbas which the original Minsk Agreement was to allow them to vote on the fate of their own future. Chancellor Merkel admitted that she negotiated in bad faith and never intended to honor that peace agreement. They wallowing in the mud of propaganda.

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Russia_Peace_Deal 2025 COVER
Russia_Peace_Deal INDEX

The Road to Peace is undoubtedly attainable.
I urge everyone to read my Peace Proposal that details the intricacies of restoring global order. The importance of restoring peace is paramount. Without peace, we will be forced to endure World War III—the destruction and loss of life is unfathomable. Share this document with whoever is willing to listen.The core of the peace plan is as follows. Yet, it is essential to read the full proposal to understand why these solutions could restore peace and change the course of history.

A plausible scenario / Restoration Deal Package

Putting the above together, a possible realistic “Restoration Deal” (from Russia’s perspective) might look like this:

  • Russia agrees to end the Ukrainian War in return for the honoring of the Minsk Agreement, a freeze of conflict lines, and allow the Donbas to vote on their basic human right to decide their own fate
  • In return, the U.S. (and EU) lift key sanctions on energy, rare earth exports, and financial transactions in stages
  • Russia commits to independent oversight (by international monitors) of resource exports, pricing, and revenue accounting

What the U.S. might realistically demand

(and what Russia would have to give)

From the U.S. (and allies) side, the demands would likely include:

  • Full transparency, auditing, and verification (to ensure that Russia does not exploit the relief to fund further military aggression)
  • Oversight on technology transfers and security constraints
  • Guarantees that lifted sanctions are reversible if Russia reneges
  • Some quid pro quo on Ukraine: withdrawal, territorial concessions, ceasefire, no reparations payments for Ukraine
  • Human rights, protection of minority groups, recognition of international law norms, and any Ukrainians located in the Donbas should be compensated to vacate the region

Russia would effectively have to offer more than just trade goods—it would have to offer political concessions, oversight, and legal guarantees that would enable it to join the world economy as an equal partner

Would such a deal restore Russia’s economy?

These proposals will help stabilize and revive parts of the Russian economy, but it will take time to establish a full “restoration” since that is not possible in the short-term. Some likely outcomes:

  • Increased export revenues from resource and rare-earth deals
  • Inflow of foreign investment (if investor confidence returns)
  • Technology and capacity rebuild via joint ventures
  • Partial reintegration into global financial systems (banking, capital markets)
  • Pressure/drive for domestic reforms (if tied to the deal)

If Trump stops listening to these losers who have never won a single war to date yet have created the largest perpetual rolling debt for their personal hatreds. Perhaps we stand a chance for peace. In these meetings with Zelensky, Trump must abandon Europe and the Neocons and be the real peacemaker. Zelensky must be stripped of his arrogant, greedy power.

My ultimatum would be simple

(1)You will honor the Minsk Agreement and allow the people of the Donbas to vote on their human right to remain as part of Ukraine, which hates their very existence and has engaged in ethnic cleansing.

(2) If Zelensky refuses, I will impose sanctions on Ukraine, and NO American company will be allowed to invest in Ukraine to cut off his trillion-dollar rebuild dream to become the richest billionaire of Ukraine.

(3) If NATO or the EU refuses to honor the very agreement that they signed, the US will withdraw from NATO.

(4) We cut a deal with Russia, allowing American companies to enter joint ventures in Russia to exploit the rare earths and resources with a joint guarantee that their investments will be safe.

(5) All sanctions of Russia are to be lifted, including the Magnitsky Act, with the sole exception of sanctions that were against individual spies.

(6) Agree to do a joint venture in the Arctic and Antarctica for natural resources and accept Putin’s proposal for a tunnel to Alaska.

Bottom line

(1) Drop all Sanctions

(2) Allow Joint Venture in Russia Jointly Guaranteed

(3) Agree to establish free trade zones

(4) Allow the Tunnel from Russia to Alaska

(5) EU must honor the Minsk Agreement or the USA exits NATO

(6) Ukraine must allow elections and must honor the Minsk Agreement or executive order prohibits all investment in Ukraine by any American company directly or indirectly

(7) If the Donbas votes to separate as in Czechoslovakia and in the Balkans, then they are to recognized by the United Nations or US withdraws all support for the United Nations.

Economic decline produces tensions, and this is what we are witnessing on a global scale, primarily due in part to the crisis in sovereign debts that nations are increasingly finding more difficult to service. The risk of a sanction producing war is far greater during an economic contraction, especially when Russia looks at this as a confrontation with NATO rather than Ukraine.

Russia_Peace_Deal INDEX

The Peace Proposal is available for free in audio or PDF format. Spread the word that World War III is not inevitable.

Feb 3 2026

Medicare Fraud in California – 2.5% of the Population Accounts for 18% of NATIONWIDE Healthcare Spending


Posted originally on Feb 3, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

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Every state with rampant social programs also has prevalent fraud. California has become an utter drain on the federal tax system. CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz revealed that California, Los Angeles County in particular, now accounts for 18% of all US Medicare home health and hospice billing to the tune of $3.5 billion annually. That equated to 2.5% of the population consuming 18% of healthcare funds.

There are over 2,000 hospice agencies in Los Angeles County—red flag. That means Los Angeles has more hospice agencies than 36 states COMBINED. Florida was once touted as “America’s waiting room” due to the aging population, but Los Angeles has 30X more hospice agencies than the entire state of Florida AND California.

LA County is the nationwide hotspot for Medicare fraud, but investigators have only scratched the surface. Over 100 hospices are registered under the same addresses. One doctor claimed to treat 1,900 patients in a single year, and received a $120 million check from the government. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has had LA-based home health agencies (HHA) and hospice agencies on their radar for years. State auditors in California estimated that hospice agencies in Los Angeles County overbilled Medicare by $105 million in 2019. By 2022, 31% of all US hospice agencies were based in Los Angeles County, and yet, the county only hosted 1.49 million seniors. CMS noted an improper payment error rate of 7.7% ($1.2 billion) in 2023, with hospice fraud costing the American taxpayer $198.1 million in FY2023.

Investigators began to question the county’s method for authorizing home health and hospice agencies. Similar to the childcare fraud in Minnesota, people were permitted to create fraudulent practices with minimal vetting and bill the federal government for services not rendered.

The California State Auditor found that licensed hospice agencies in Los Angeles County increased from 109 in 2010 to 1,841 in 2021, a 1,589% increase.  Over 1,732 additional licenses for home hospices were granted in an 11-year period between 2010 and 2021.

These agencies enroll as many beneficiaries as possible even if they fail to meet clinical criteria. Those beneficiaries are often billed on a daily per-diem basis for care they may or may not receive. Others have a physician order a 30-day “period of care” window that is then submitted as a Notice of Admission (NOA) to Medicare. The patients never leave the system and their billed care continually grows. “As a hospice owner, I could sign up everybody in this room for hospice,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta explained during a recent hearing. “It’s all just paperwork. I could fill [an application] out in Kazakhstan if I want, and get a hospice license.”

The average hospice stay is under 18 days, but in LA, patients are surviving for over 18 months. The Federal government has been shelling out an average of $260 per day for each senior receiving care. “A Medicare MIB number is more lucrative than a credit card,” says Sheila Clark, president of the California Hospice and Palliative Care Association, referring to the 11-character code each Medicare recipient has that allows federal reimbursement. “They’re human traffickers. They’re trafficking beneficiaries in and out of hospices, home health.”

Fraudsters have begun recruiting vulnerable seniors by offering to enroll them in a complimentary Medicare program that will provide them with minimal health care. The victim’s beneficiary Medicare number is then sold to these fraudulent agencies.

Social programs are a prime target for taxpayer fraud. Authorities knew that fraud was prevalent back in 2019 but looked the other way. The fraudsters likely donated to the right politicians and paid off the right people. The average American who works hard and pays into the system is always penalized by the same politicians who claim to represent the “average man.”

Feb 3 2026

Can Trump Save the UN?


Posted originally on Feb 3, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

United Nations Drawing

In a recent interview, Donald Trump claimed he could “very easily solve” the United Nations’ financial problems by requiring member states to pay their dues, much as he pressured NATO allies to increase defense contributions during his first term. Trump would not be able to do this with funds, as that is not the true nature of the problem. The core of the institution has rotted; global powers no longer have strong confidence in the United Nations.

Yesterday, I wrote about the United Nations warning that it was facing an “imminent financial collapse. I argued that when institutions fail to adapt to shifting power dynamics, they collapse under their own contradictions. That is exactly what we are witnessing now.

The UN’s financial crisis is not primarily about $4 billion in unpaid dues. Rather, it’s about the loss of legitimacy and mutual trust among sovereign states. The UN is a creature of consensus and shared obligations, but the financial obligation has fallen on the US, and the American people no longer wish to foot the bill. This is precisely why there is a rising tide of nationalism, as people demand that their politicians and taxes stay within the domestic realm.

“When I’m no longer around to settle wars, the U.N. can,” Donald Trump said, acknowledging that he won’t always be the one intervening in global conflicts. “It has tremendous potential. Tremendous.”

Now, the UN has international respect and the ability to function based on SHARED interests. The United Nations was never designed to be a global government; it was a forum for negotiation among sovereign powers. It worked as long as the major powers had a shared interest in maintaining stability. But that shared interest has eroded.

The West is fracturing internally, with the US and Europe increasingly at odds on security, economic policy, defense obligations, and industrial strategy. Countries are less willing to fund an institution they no longer see as effective, fair, or aligned with their interests. Expectations regarding payment compliance are rooted in a bygone era when the UN’s agenda broadly aligned with American and Western strategic leadership. That alignment is gone.

Feb 3 2026

Boston Mayor: Every Single Human Being Has the Legal Right to Live in the USA


Posted originally on Feb 3, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Democrat Mayor Michelle Wu of Boston does not understand US law. “Every single human being has the legal right to come to the United States and seek shelter,” Wu stated back in March 2025. As of 2024, Massachusetts housed 1.3 million foreign-born residents, accounting for 18.8% of the state’s population. In the Boston-Cambridge-Newton metro area, one in five residents (19.7%) is foreign-born. Can the city or state afford these newcomers? No.

Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee summed up the Democrats’ position: “The quiet part out loud: The entire world has more right to America than Americans.”

Traditionally, immigration policy was a matter of sovereign control. The nation determines who may enter, under what conditions, and with what responsibilities. This model predates modern America and is rooted in centuries of legal, cultural, and economic practice.

Mass migration has real economic consequences. Labor markets, social services, welfare systems, and community infrastructure are affected by the scale and timing of immigration flows. Far-left advocates often frame migration in purely humanitarian terms, but policymakers must grapple with the practical economics of assimilation, public expenditure, and labor dynamics.

It’s no coincidence that cities with declining populations or struggling economies have become proponents of more permissive immigration policies. Cities do not embrace mass immigration because they are prosperous. They do so because they are desperate. When a city loses population, it loses its tax base. Property values stagnate or decline, businesses relocate, employment opportunities shrink, and municipal debt becomes harder to service. The politicians are left with a shortage of people to rob. So they import bodies to increase the welfare system to rob the federal government.

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You cannot endlessly import people into a system already failing without accelerating its collapse. Social services become strained, public trust erodes, and conflict intensifies between those contributing to the system and those drawing from it. This is when politics turns hostile and polarized.

The Democrats opened the borders and told the world that they could live a taxpayer-subsidized life if they made it to America. Budgets imploded, demographics rapidly shifted, the same politicians waving a welcome flag began to panic. And now we are witnessing a social uprising over deportations as law and order is restored. The chaos is calculated and deliberate.

Feb 2 2026

Estonia Demands EU-Wide Ban on Russian Veterans


Posted originally on Feb 2, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Kallas Zelensky

Estonia is urging an EU-wide ban on entry for Russian soldiers who have fought in Ukraine. Estonia has already imposed permanent entry bans on some Russian combatants, and now the idea is being discussed among EU foreign ministers as a unified bloc response to a post-war security landscape that most Europeans are only beginning to comprehend.

Neocon Kaja Kallas is one example of Estonia’s view of Russians. “Russia has close to one million combatants. They are mainly criminals. They are very dangerous people,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told reporters. “Europe is not ready for that.”

Europe permitted actual terrorists from the Middle East to enter its borders and seek asylum. Russia’s Putin implemented a draft; an entire generation of men has been sent to battle. Those who hold strong anti-Russian sentiment want to ensure that Russians permanently stay within Russia by banning an entire generation from migrating or seeking asylum.

“We need to protect European security, and we need to do it together,” Estonia’s Tsahkna said, adding: “There can be no path from Bucha to Brussels. This is the main message.”

Estonia has already imposed permanent entry bans on some Russian combatants, and now the idea is being discussed among EU foreign ministers as a unified bloc response. Kallas is championing the broad ban by claiming all Russians pose a threat to Europe’s existence. Identity politics is becoming policy.

If the EU begins banning individuals based on past association with an adversary state’s military, then Europe is redefining its own internal rules. Countless Russians have family ties to bordering Eastern European nations. Should they be punished for the mandatory draft? Kallas and others not only want to destroy Russia, but they also want to segregate Russians from Europeans.

When you label a class of people permanently undesirable because they served their country in a conflict, you create multigenerational resentment. We saw this after World War I with Germany. The attempt to morally and economically quarantine an entire defeated power did not produce peace. It produced rage that carried forward into the next cycle of war. You cannot humiliate one generation and expect the next to forget.

Feb 2 2026

United Nations Facing “Imminent Financial Collapse”


Posted originally on Feb 2, 2026 by Martin Armstrong

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United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that the organization could face “imminent financial collapse” unless member states pay their dues in full and on time or unless the underlying financial structure is fundamentally reformed.

“The crisis is deepening, threatening programme delivery and risking financial collapse. And the situation will deteriorate further in the near future,” Guterres said. “Either all Member States honour their obligations to pay in full and on time – or Member States must fundamentally overhaul our financial rules to prevent an imminent financial collapse,” he added.

The United States has been bankrolling the UN for decades. It has functioned in many respects like a supranational agency funded disproportionately by American taxpayers, while policies coming out of that same body are often openly hostile to US interests. That contradiction could only last so long.

During his first term, Donald Trump warned that member nations were not making their required contributions. The UN repeatedly rebuked US policy and then wondered why the POTUS suspended funding.

You cannot build a permanent international bureaucracy assuming one country will always write the largest check regardless of behavior, efficiency, or accountability. When confidence declines at home, foreign commitments are always the first to be questioned. We see this pattern repeatedly with empires and reserve currency nations. External spending gets cut when internal stress rises.

We are moving away from the post-World War II global order where the United States carried the financial burden for international structures in exchange for geopolitical influence. Those with nationalist sentiments see this as a win for the United States who has been bankrolling globalist agencies and foreign governments for far too long. What does the US receive in return? Nothing.

Feb 2 2026

Majority of Americans Want Voter ID Laws


Posted originally on Feb 2, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

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A recent poll by Quantus Insights indicates that 74% of registered US voters believe photo ID should be required by law to vote. Nearly half (49.3%) “strongly support” the measure, while only 16% stated they “strongly” or “somewhat” oppose such legislation.

Every serious financial and legal transaction in modern society requires identification. You cannot open a bank account, board a plane, cash a check, or enter many government buildings without ID. Yet we are told that verifying identity for the selection of the most powerful positions in government is somehow unique. That argument simply does not hold up under rational scrutiny.

The real issue behind voter ID is not left versus right. It is something far more fundamental that people keep missing. Every system of government rises and falls on confidence. Once the public begins to doubt the integrity of the process, it begins to question the system.

A year ago, Romanian citizens questioned the validity of their elections and the importance of their vote after the constitutional court annulled Calin Georgescu’s presidential election. Countless people asked, “Why bother voting?” The same line of thinking applies to US elections, where rampant voter fraud has become commonplace.

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Mail-in ballots led to Joe Biden securing 81 million votes—more than any president in American history. Polls indicated that fewer Americans were choosing to participate in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Gerrymandering, mail-in ballots, thousands of votes cast on behalf of dead voters, prohibiting citizens from being required to show identification and therefore permitting illegals to vote – the last election was a complete disaster, and this one will be no different. One in five Americans actually admitted to committing election fraud in 2020. Republicans were more prone to committing election fraud, but studies found that Donald Trump would have been the clear winner if mail-in ballots were prohibited.

Only one political party opposes voter ID requirements. None of the G7 nations permit people to vote without showing identification. I could not show up in Germany and expect to have a say in the future of their nation – absolutely absurd. It is categorically astonishing that the left has convinced a subset of the population that asking for identification is racist or oppressive.

The election has degraded into a performance that is meant to give the public the perception that they have an actual say in the direction of the nation. You have no say in government spending, debt, or future wars. It is an utter illusion to believe that the powerful elite in Washinton within the establish care about the wishes of the people.

Feb 2 2026

Beware of February Onward


originally on Posted Feb 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

iranian Rial M Array 1 31 26

COMMENT:

Hyperinflation and sanctions on cue in Iran, 103.2 years before Weimar.

Iran headed to 47.3 year peak in early 2027 on ECM from hostage taking, after which people will no longer have confidence in revolutionaries (on public/private ECM alternation).

Why not just recommend that US just let Iran fall on its own, to avoid potentially entangling China and Russia if US strikes first?

Thank you always!

JH

Beware of February 2

REPLY: I fully agree that Iran will fall all by itself just like Communism. You cannot have any religion dictate to the economy. Communism was in effect a religion that was atheism and sought to also control human nature suppressing it into one version fits all. The risk of Iran is that they may lash out of desperation and use war to try to cling to power. The problem I see is that February is showing up around many markets. Volatility will rise from February. Blackrock is writing down its private debt portfolio by 19% due to losses. Wait until they have to write down Ukraine. There are a lot of financial minefields out there in addition to the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Japan and EU.

Feb 1 2026

IRAN into 2027


Posted originally on Feb 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

IRAN ECM

QUESTION: Do you still see the risk of a Middle East War by 2027?

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ANSWER: Unfortunately, yes. I will do a Report on the Middle East for 2026.

The Paradox of a Regime That Can’t Afford Peace

Let me start with the question everyone’s asking wrong: “Will Iran start another war with Israel?”

Wrong question. The right question is: Can Iran’s regime survive WITHOUT war?

The answer is no. And understanding why reveals everything about what’s coming in 2026 and beyond. Iran is facing its worst domestic crisis since the 1979 Revolution. As we have witnessed, starting December 28, 2025—just six months after the war—massive protests erupted across all 31 provinces. What began as economic demonstrations over hyperinflation and currency collapse rapidly evolved into demands for wholesale regime change. This isn’t like 2009’s Green Movement or 2022’s protests after Mahsa Amini’s death. This is different.

The economic devastation from sanctions, war damage, and decades of mismanagement has severed the social contract even with traditional regime supporters—the Bazaaris (merchant class) who helped bring Khomeini to power in 1979. When you lose the Bazaar, you’ve lost Iran. The shopkeepers shuttering stores in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar aren’t revolutionaries—they’re businessmen who can no longer operate because inflation destroyed the currency and the economy is broken. By early January 2026, Iranian police detained over 21,000 suspects during the unrest, including 260 accused of spying and 172 for illegal filming. Several Kurdish men were executed publicly for alleged collaboration with Israel.

Think about that. The regime is executing people for “collaboration” while simultaneously trying to rebuild military capabilities to fight Israel again. That’s not the behavior of a confident government. That’s desperation.

Why War Becomes Necessary

From a cyclical perspective, Iran’s regime is trapped between two lethal forces:

External Pressure:

Nuclear program set back 1-2 years (rebuilding frantically)
Proxy network (Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria) decimated
Direct military confrontation exposed defensive weaknesses
U.S. and Israel signaling willingness to strike again in 2026
Regional Arab states increasingly skeptical of Iran as stabilizing force

Internal Collapse:

Hyperinflation destroying purchasing power
Water scarcity creating agricultural crisis
Youth unemployment astronomical
Brain drain of educated class
Massive protests demanding regime change
Even security forces expressing financial desperation (viral videos of police officers describing severe hardship)

Middle East 2026
Feb 1 2026

The Dark Side of Humanity?


Posted originally on Feb 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong

Dark Side of Humanity 1

QUESTION: Thank you for your efforts to reduce the amplitude of war. It is really remarkable that a person’s talents, wisdom, or achievements are often undervalued or dismissed by those in his own country. You were called in by China to help them become capitalist. Gorbachev also came to you for guidance on the USSR’s fall. Margaret Thatcher came to you to justify keeping the pound out of the euro. And they came to you when designing the euro. Yet the United States government refuses to take your advice. It makes no sense that Congresswoman Luna, who was meeting with Russians professing to be anti-war, you say you do not advise. At least Trump sent you a thank you letter.  Matthew 13:57 records the same treatment. Jesus said:

“And they took offense at him. But Jesus said to them, ‘A prophet is not without honor except in his hometown and in his own household.’”

Anyone in the media who professes to be independent and refuses to show you any respect reveals their own dishonesty. Other people who will plagiarize your work, lack the database, and refuse to credit you, also revealing their dishonesty.

This curious aspect here is that you are sought after internationally, but most try to ignore you in the United States. The movie on you the Forecaster I saw on a flight from Europe to Canada and it was on Canadian TV but banned in America. I do not understand this bias against our own people. They loved Marx, who was German, Keynes, who was British, and even Piketty, who is French. I guess it’s like French wine is supposed to be better than California.

Do you have any insight into why this takes place?

RL

Economist Trump Greenland

ANSWER: In the case of Jesus, the townspeople’s familiarity with him, as an ordinary human, blinded them to his divine identity and authority. They could not see past “Joseph’s son” to accept him as the Messiah. I think it is perhaps jealousy. Even a head of state like Trump is always criticized as a person, which ignores the fact that as president he represents the nation. It just appears that it is always personal. In some cases they hate me for the forecast – kill the messenger when you do not like the news. Others are jealousy. Despite the fact that I try to distinguish a forecast is made by the computer rather than my personal opinion, they will still attack me personally and say I am wrong ignoring the computer altogether.

Denmark_s_Genocidal_Practices_in_Greenland

It is just the dark side of humanity. Look at the European press. You cannot find a single positive article about Trump in the Economist.  To them, unless you are handing money to illegal migrants and never utter a single complaint, then you are fair target. They will never explain that Greenland is part of North America – not Europe. They will not discuss how Denmark was sterilisering girls  to stop the births of Inuit people in Greenland from the 1960s to as recently as 1991.

Danish Empire Map

Greenland is not an asset of Denmark or Europe. It is not strategic in the least to their national security. What this dispute is REALLY about is that the surrender of Greenland is reall the last vestige of Imperialism for Europe as a whole.

Greenland Globe Map

Greenland is part of the North American Plate – not Europe. When I was in programming back in the late ’60s at RCA, they manned Tuli Greenland site which monitored the top of the globe with NORAD as a defense against missiles launched by Russia over the top of the globe. It was always a strategic based that even protected Europe. This is all about arrogance and pride and the surrender of Greenland means the last of the Imperialism of Europe.

There is a very Dark Side of humanity and I believe it is driven by hatred, jealousy, and self-interest.