Category Supply Side Inflation

Nov 11 2022

Lauren Boebert Wins Colorado CD-03, Also Arizona and Nevada Solid GOP Wins – Delays Are Media Anti-Trump Narrative Engineering Efforts


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 10, 2022 | Sundance

Folks, relax.  We’ve seen enough, and we’ve seen this exact playbook before.

The delayed “official results” from Colorado, Arizona and Nevada are all part of the organized narrative engineering from SoS offices, party officials (local and state) and corporate media.  It’s transparent now.

There were key “target races”, not defined for political outcomes per se’ but rather …. they were identified for official media targeting; for script writing and narrative engineering; under the guise of being identified as “key races” to sense, gauge and create a storyline for election distribution by corporate media.

In the big picture, the goal was to undermine and deflate the MAGA base represented by President Donald Trump.  2022 midterm MAGA wins downplayed and or delayed. 2022 MAGA losses overemphasized, highlighted and promoted as part of the script.  That’s what we are seeing now.  That’s all we are seeing now.

Lauren Boebert has won Colorado CD-03, exactly as I said she would at 00:32 on election night [DATA]:

The Boebert lead will continue widening until they “officially” call the race.  The delay is strictly because Lauren Boebert was an identified media/maga target, similar in construct to Marjorie Taylor Green, who won by too wide a margin to be useful for this intention.

The delays in Arizona are for the exact same reason.   All GOP wins.  Kari Lake easily won the Governor contest and Abraham Hamadeh has easily won the Arizona AG position. Slightly lesser probability, but still likely, both Blake Masters (AZ Senate) and Mark Finchem (AZ Secretary of State) will stand victorious at the end of this narrative engineering delay.

The same applies for Nevada where Republican Adam Laxalt has easily won the Senate Race and Joe Lombardo is the new Republican governor.

The U.S. majority in the Senate is currently sitting at 50 Republicans with Laxalt being #50, that’s a done deal.

Additionally, it’s highly likely Blake Masters will eventually be called as #51.  However, that reality diminishes the import of the media’s use of Georgia where Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) will have a runoff.

The GA narrative engineering, media spin and effort to promote horrible orange man, is the purpose for dragging this out.

♦ Accepting this baseline, there are two states (almost three) where things went to shit.  Michigan and Pennsylvania (almost Wisconsin), and the reality of what happened in those states with ballot collection explains: (a) the results, and (b) why media don’t want to dig too much into those results.  You will note the media is all high level on those races with spin toward MAGA Trump couldn’t help the PA and Mich candidates win.

The reality is nobody could have helped the Michigan and Pennsylvania republican candidates win.  The ballots to assure Democrat victories were gathered before election day in both those states.

There is a big difference between “votes” and “ballots.”  The Republicans focused on winning votes; the Democrats focused on gathering ballots.   The ballots won.

Wisconsin tried essentially the same thing as PA and MI, except there was already residual election roll cleanup (hurts the ballot team) and strong election day turnout (helps vote team).  Wisconsin was a close contest, and they better fortify against the ballot team quickly before 2024.

Pennsylvania and Michigan are lost to the importance of voting now. Their house and senate constructs changed because the ballot team organized support to flip them blue.

PA and MI will now work to legislatively embed the ballot gathering operation as part of their legal election process for 2024.

A GOP presidential contest in PA is futile without a Keystone State Republican ballot collection effort in place.  The same thing is needed in Michigan now.

In states where ballot collection operations are allowed within the election law, the entire Republican apparatus in those states – and all the candidates – need to immediately change their entire outlook on electioneering (CA, WA, WI, MN, IL, NY, PA, VA, CO).

In those states like PA, Mich and Wisc, Republicans need to switch from electioneering to win votes, to electioneering to gather ballots.  Everything needs to change QUICKLY, and the RNC needs a fully organized, technologically assisted, geospatial digital outreach collection and assembly organization team in place by Easter 2023.

Organized voter ballot distribution, voter ballot delivery and ballot pickup systems need to be in place by the spring 2023.

There should be no other priority for any Republican Party or politician in any state where ballot collection, mail-in ballots, ballot drop boxes, or ballot harvesting is permitted by law.

Stop campaigning for votes and immediately switch the entire political operation to electioneering for ballots.

Votes require people, ballots require systems.  Republican officials, Republican politicians and the Republican voters need to switch the emphasis from people (votes and poll watchers) to systems (ballot collection and poll watchers) in these states.  Voters will understand if it is explained and clearly articulated.

The narrative engineering on the current vote/ballot outcome delays in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado (and more) are all related to the organized anti-Trump corporate media agenda.  It’s not coincidental the entire apparatus of the media and professional political establishment are trying to frame a ‘failed Trump’ narrative.

Accept that because of ballot collection, Michigan and Pennsylvania were lost before the election even started.   With that as the baseline, where exactly did Trump lose?

Last point.  RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel is from Michigan, she literally lives in Michigan…  She didn’t see the ballot gathering operation in her own state and recognize that campaigning for votes was futile?  Either she is too inept to retain the position, or she’s part of the turn a blind eye GOPe team; neither explanation is good.

Get rid of Ronna McDaniel.  Besides, the RNC needs a professional in ballot collection now, not donor outreach.

Nov 11 2022

CPI Report – Inflation on Food, Fuel, Home Heating and Essentials Continues Growing – Overall Inflation Moderation Now Claimed as Calendar Cycles


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 10, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) provides the latest data on consumer prices (inflation) [DATA HERE].  We explained in 2021 how inflation would grow on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis until the calendar became more friendly and the government officials could claim “diminished inflation growth.”  Well, we are now entering that phase of economic parseltongue.

October consumer prices increased 0.4% over September.  However, we are now comparing year-over-year (Y0Y) inflation to the period where last year’s prices had already skyrocketed, so YoY inflation seems to be moderating at 7.7%, it’s a false premise. {Go Deep}

As expected, the energy-driven consumer inflation in the food sector has arrived.  The proverbial field inflation is arriving at the fork, and the October CPI now shows the third wave of food price increases we had previously discussed.

Table 2 Details: Egg prices increased +10.1% last month and now 43% higher than last year.  Butter +1.9% last month, 26.7% for year.  Margarine +1.3% for month, 47.1% for year.  Coffee +1.3% for the month, 15.6% for the year.

Heading into baking season we find flour +0.2% for the month, +24.6% for year.  Essentially, as expected, all of the holiday foodstuffs are now rising in price as the increased field and commodity prices hit the store shelves.

Some row crops are starting to moderate in price growth, while dairy products continue rising throughout the fall season.  It is going to be painful on the checkbook grocery shopping this holiday season.

On the energy front, home heating oil increased 19.8% in October and is now a whopping 68.5% higher than last October.  Unleaded gasoline increased another 3.5% and now is now 20.9% higher than last year (Oct ’21), which was already 40% higher than January 2021.

Food, fuel, electricity, home heating and housing costs continue growing monthly, but give the illusion of moderating when compared to last year.

Food away from home (restaurants etc.) are starting to show the cumulative price impacts for restaurants, hotels and cafeterias.  Additionally, as the kids returned to school the lunchroom prices have skyrocketed a jaw-dropping +3.8% for October and +95% compared to last year [Table 2].  Packing lunches for kids is going to become an even more important aspect for the family food budget.

The stock market is happy with the news because the lowered 7.7% (YoY) inflation number, a product of the calendar and nothing else, gives optimism the Fed may moderate the increased federal reserve rate hikes.  However, don’t count on it because inflation is easily identified as embedded now.  Lemons at the grocery store are now $0.99/each.

Think about that.  $1 for a single lemon and roughly 50¢ per egg at the supermarket.  A full shopping cart of groceries now easily exceeding $200.  This is devastating for those on fixed incomes and blue-collar workers.

Wages are nowhere near keeping up with this level of price increase.

(CNBC) The consumer price index rose less than expected in October, an indication that while inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, pressures could be starting to cool.

The index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics release Thursday. Respective estimates from Dow Jones were for rises of 0.6% and 7.9%.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.5% and 6.5%.

A 2.4% decline in used vehicle prices helped bring down the inflation figures. Apparel prices fell 0.7% and medical care services were lower by 0.6%.

“The report overstates the case that inflation is coming in, but it makes a case inflation is coming in,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s pretty clear that inflation has definitely peaked and is rolling over. All the trend lines suggest that it will continue to moderate going forward, assuming that nothing goes off the rails.” (read more)

The Biden energy policy is the root of the consumer inflation. Nothing will happen to moderate overall consumer inflation on Main Street until energy policy changes.

Additionally, with the 2022 election in the rear-view mirror, we should start to see layoffs and unemployment increasing now.  The bureaucrats will now let the recession become evident.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=tzth3x0KN4Y%3Ffeature%3Doembed

Nov 10 2022

Conservative Politicians Add Thousands of Twitter Followers After Musk Takeover 


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politically Correct re-Posted Nov 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Twitter had been openly suppressing conservative voices. The extent to which they were suppressed could be seen days after Musk’s takeover. Multiple major Republican candidates suddenly secured thousands of additional followers, while the opposite was true for Democrats.

Florida’s Governor DeSantis saw 3,770 new followers on the first day of Musk’s takeover. Within four days, DeSantis’ followers rose by 148,000. Texas Senator Ted Cruz saw an increase of 1,676 on Musk’s first day, followed by another 41,000 a few days later. Georgia Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene added 1,995 new followers on day one, 41,520 on day two, and 24,287 more on day three. Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, Donald Trump Jr., Kari Lake, and others all saw sudden rises.

On the other hand, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York shed thousands of followers, as did other squad members. Former President Obama and Vice President Harris also saw a sharp decline in followers, presumably bot accounts.

All of this happened before Twitter even revamped the algorithm. The silent majority was, in fact, silenced on Twitter.

Nov 8 2022

2022 WEC: In the Dollar We Trust


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Economic Conference Re-Posted Nov 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

At the World Economic Conference in 2021, the Armstrong Socrates model predicted that 2022 was going to be volatile and chaotic featuring a strong US dollar, a huge move in interest rates, a major bond market decline, fertilizer and food shortages, as well as escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

What now? Socrates forecast that 2023 will be more volatile and chaotic, featuring violent moves across all markets as monetary and geopolitical tensions and debt problems intensify.

At this year’s World Economic Conference, November 11-13, Martin Armstrong will talk about what’s next for the US dollar and other currencies, the liquidity/credit crisis, as well as price targets for oil, gold, stocks, bonds/interest rates, and stocks.

Give yourself an “unfair” advantage over the markets by joining us at this year’s conference remotely or in person. Meet Martin Armstrong – have your questions answered and get the best roadmap for 2023 and beyond in the investment business.

Nov 8 2022

Biden’s IRS Army in Jeopardy


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Nov 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Biden’s IRS army of 87,000 new armed recruits is coming under fire by the Republican party. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. Jon Thune (R-SD) are working on a bill that would require Congress to approve IRS spending. Both men also sit on the House-Senate Joint Committee on Taxation. Biden would like to spend $80 billion on his IRS army over the next decade to shake down American taxpayers.

“Our bill will ensure that the IRS is answerable to the American people in how it uses this money and will force it to forfeit funds every day it’s not in compliance,” Grassley said. “If our bill becomes law, the Biden administration’s IRS would have to answer to the American people, not Washington bureaucrats,” Thune added. The American people fund the IRS, and it is only right that they vote on how their money is spent. In fact, they should vote on whether there is a need for the IRS at all.

If the bill passes, the IRS must explain how they use their money every year. Funding to the IRS would be withheld if they failed to comply. If Congress turns red this November, this measure is likely to pass. This would be a great first step in a long overdue overhaul of the entire US tax system, which is designed to be as complex as possible so that the government can squeeze funds out of every citizen.