Posted originally on Jun 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Russia is increasing production of its Oreshnik missile system as NATO pledges an additional $40 billion to Ukraine. The nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile is a powerful system with the capacity to travel 3,415 miles, effectively enabling Russia to strike anywhere in the West from Europe to the United States.
“Serial production of the latest Oreshnik medium-range missile system is under way,” Putin told a graduating class of military cadets in televised comments. The system became operational on November 21, 2024, and used in an attack whereby it carried multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) payload and six warheads that were each capable of releasing submunitions. The first use of the system involved dummy warheads that still caused destruction due to hypersonic kinetic energy. It is widely believed that the first use of the Orsenhnik system was more of a psychological move than an actual strike. In fact, Moscow notified Washington 30 minutes before deploying the missile. Moscow wanted to reveal to the world that it is ready to employ this new lethal technology.
This technology effectively intimidates the West with its long-range capabilities, although Moscow states it is only ramping up production of its mid-range missile system. Moscow needs the West and NATO to know that it has the capacity to attack if cornered. Putin has claimed that this weapon cannot be intercepted and has the capacity to evade missile defense systems. Traveling at 3 km per second, existing defense systems simply would not have the time to act. The Oreshnik can also be controlled mid-flight through aerodynamic control surfaces or gliding warheads, which masks its route. Putin has also stated that this system has the power to ruin underground targets without using nuclear payloads.
It remains to be seen whether the Oreshnik missile system is “impossible to intercept,” as Putin claims. The weight behind the increased production is a clear indicator that Russia is preparing to defend itself against NATO if needed. These weapons would benefit Russia in a global conflict and are not necessarily strategically necessary for its current battle in Ukraine.
Posted originally on Jun 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Russia’s recent strike on Boeing facilities in Ukraine has been portrayed as an attack on American business. The Dow-listed company has maintained operations in Ukraine despite the ongoing war and partnered with Ukrainian aircraft manufacturer Antonov in 2023 on joint defense projects.
“This is not just an attack against Ukraine, but also an attack where American business is being hit,” Andy Hunder, President of the ACC in Ukraine, which represents nearly 700 U.S. and international investors and corporate members, told the Kyiv Independent. “This is a war against a world where American businesses are making money and thriving,” he added.
The strike took place after Ukraine’s massive attack during Operation Spiderweb that destroyed hundreds of Russian drones and 41 war planes across four Russian airbases.
The media is portraying the strike on Boeing as an attack on American business. Similarly, the media portrayed the attack on German defense company Rheinmetall, which opened a new facility in Ukraine last year to produce military vehicles, as an attack on German business. The fact of the matter is that this is a time of war, and Russia is targeting defense manufacturing facilities.
If nations began opening or expanding defense manufacturing operations, say in Iran, then Israel and the US would take that as a sign of aggression, if not a direct threat to national security. Russia has repeatedly stated Western aggression is escalating tensions and prolonging the war. So not only are the EU, UK, and US sending countless funding and equipment to Ukraine, but private ventures from these nations are developing almost every piece of warfare equipment there.
The target was not America or Germany; rather, the target was defense manufacturing facilities. Several Western arms manufacturing facilities have opened joint ventures in Ukraine. Germany plans to open additional Rheinmetall facilities. Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft is working with a private Ukrainian weapons manufacturer to build a service center in Ukraine. The KDNS is another German-Franco joint venture in Ukraine that is mass producing weapons to kill Russians. Denmark opened MyDefence to produce counter-drone technology. The United Kingdom has joint ventures BAE Systems and Babcock.
The United States remains the top supplier of arms to Ukraine through private arms manufacturers, supplying around 43% of the weapons used in warfare. However, the majority are produced domestically and imported to Ukraine. The Western-backed military-industrial complex has had a stronghold in Ukraine since the war began. These manufacturers were not operating in Ukraine before 2022. Russia naturally has an incentive to destroy these facilities, but that certainly does not indicate Russia is targeting European nations or the US.
Posted originally on Jun 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, it is disgraceful that people take your work and issue books pretending it is their research. Yet it is even more shameful that Donald Trump isn’t calling you for advice instead of these people who couldn’t find the door in a room if the lights went out. You stated clearly that Iran’s nukes were irrelevant, for Russia, China, or North Korea could place them there just as Russia did during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Then what? I can see your concern. This is not a solvable issue, and it was just made worse. Your computer is always correct.
KW
When I was barely a teen, I was climbing a tree and fell. I didn’t get hurt from the fall, but when I fell, I took down a Yellow-Hacket hornet’s nest. Fortunately, I was not too far from home, and I ran like hell with bees attacking me all over. I fear this is what we have just done for the Neocons; they only look at what is immediately in front of their nose, with no thought for what comes next. There are sleeper cells in major cities in Europe and the United States. The Neocons think that they have won, and Iran has no cards. They always assume they are superior, yet they have lost every single war from Korea, Vietnam, to Afghanistan and Iraq, and they said they would win Iraq in 3 weeks or less, and then invade seven countries.
While the Neocons look only at their immediate objective, they are INCAPABLE of ever comprehending the UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. This is NOT the end, but the beginning, and that is according to our computer, not my personal opinion. I wish it were my opinion, for then we would have a shot at that statement being wrong. We have a Panic Cycle in 2026 when it comes to international war.
President Donald Trump has just delivered the dream of the Neocons, and he does not even know it. He wrote on Truth Social:
“There is not another military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! … This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR.”
By dropping powerful bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow and elsewhere, Trump has acquiesced to the behest of Israel, and that was a fateful choice, for it demonstrated that the United States has chosen sides not simply with Iran. Still, it is reverberating behind the veil of the Middle East as a one-sided gunboat diplomacy. The growing concern is that the USA may no longer be able to deal impartially in the Middle East.
Iran’s Sunni neighbours are just 200 miles away at most. This is well within reach of Iran’s short-range missiles. Since Iran’s neighbors are hosts to key US military bases, there is a rising fear that they can be dragged into the major Middle East conflict. Then some question the loyalty of the United States if the US must choose between Israel and the Arab world.
The last time we saw war in the Middle East, there was also a major shock and fragmentation of the entire region. The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq resulted in irreparable damage to the region, costing the USA $3 trillion. The UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE was the ensuing mayhem, which benefited Iran by removing their arch enemy Saddam Huesin. The action by the Neocons inflamed sectarian tensions in the entire region and led to the birth of the Sunni jihadist group ISIS.
Whatever Iran’s response, America’s foreign policy is more closely aligned with Israel’s than it has ever been. As previously noted, Netanyahu seems to be calling the shots with President Trump scrambling to keep pace with his supposedly junior ally, a Neocon through and through. Now, despite years of claiming he would avoid wars and other foreign entanglements, President Trump has just bet his entire presidency on a dramatically aggressive act in Iran that does violate international law, and there was undoubtedly no declaration of war. Trump will now go down in history as the American president to ever strike another country with bombers without a formal war. At least in the Gulf War, the US invoked Article 5 of NATO. President Trump is also the first to have overtly joined Israel in an attack on an adversary. That is a severe issue that history will not forget.
Our National Debt has risen dramatically, all because of the endless wars of the Neocons. They do not care about the people or our country. All they care about is the destruction of their enemies to satisfy their raw hatred. We are facing sovereign defaults around the world, all because of perpetually borrowing with no intention of ever paying back the debt.
We are still paying interest on World War I and II, along with Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq. This one will be many trillions, and it will contribute to the collapse of the world monetary system post-2030.
We have just entered the Thucydides Trap. This highlights the profound and often perilous instability caused by a major shift in global power, which is what is now unfolding. The hubris of the United States, in believing it is invincible, was promoted by the Neocons, just as it was in ancient Athens. This lesson from history serves as a stark warning that the natural friction between a rising and ruling power is a prime historical catalyst for catastrophic conflict, emphasizing the critical need for skillful statecraft, clear communication, and crisis management mechanisms to navigate this dangerous phase peacefully. This lesson from history highlights a powerful pattern that warrants serious attention, particularly in the context of US-Russia and US-China relations.
Thucydides (c. 460-395 BC) in his seminal work, History of the Peloponnesian War, identified the fundamental cause of the devastating 27-year war between Sparta and Athens. He wrote:
“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
The Trap refers to the structural stress created by a major shift in the balance of power. The established power (like Sparta) feels threatened by the rising power’s (like Athens’) growing influence, wealth, and military capabilities. Simultaneously, the rising power demands greater recognition, influence, and a role in shaping the system commensurate with its new power. This mutual fear, suspicion, and rivalry often lead to miscalculation, crises, and ultimately, war – even if neither side actively desires it. Hence, the computer projects that WWIII is inevitable.
The Peloponnesian War (431-404BC) was fought between Sparta and Athens, the two superpowers of ancient Greece at the time. Each was dominant in its own way, and the war was essentially a clash between these two giants. Athens ended in defeat in 404 BC, precisely on schedule with our ECM model.
Sparta and its allies (specifically Thebes) struck the first blow. However, the war’s origins involve decades of tension and specific provocations not unlike the relationship between the United States, Russia, and China. In early 431 BC, a small force of Thebans (members of the Spartan-led Peloponnesian League) launched a surprise night attack on the city of Plataea, a long-standing ally of Athens within Boeotia (Theban territory). Thebes sought to eliminate Plataean resistance to Theban dominance over Boeotia, much like Israel versus Iran. They sought to bring Plataean firmly into their sphere. They were also encouraged by pro-Theban Plataean citizens who opened the gates, not unlike Israel’s sympathizers inside Iran.
The initial coup attempt failed. Plataean citizens rallied, captured many Thebans, and executed them. This act was a clear violation of the existing Thirty Years’ Peace treaty. This attack by Sparta’s most powerful ally is widely considered the first overt military action of the war. It gave Athens justification to mobilize and support Plataea. The city-state of Plataea was located in Boeotia. The dominant power in Boeotia was Thebes, which did issue prolific coinage (featuring the Boeotian shield) as the leader of the Boeotian League. There are no coins issued by Plataea, for they appear to have used the coinage of Thebes.
After the failed Theban attack on Plataea and the execution of the Theban prisoners, Sparta, as the leader of the Peloponnesian League, formally declared war on Athens. This declaration followed failed negotiations in which Sparta demanded that Athens lift sanctions against Megara (another Spartan ally) and effectively cede its empire. This demand would have led to Athens’ empire being surrendered, which would have been a committed act of geopolitical suicide. Hence, it was resoundingly rejected.
So, while Thebes struck the first physical blow, Sparta, as the leader of the opposing alliance, formally initiated the state of war. I should point out that Sparta was a Communist State and never issued coinage to prevent people from attaining wealth. Everyone was to provide military service.
The historian Thucydides, who lived through the war, argued that the real cause was deeper than any single event. This was rooted in the rivalry between the two superpowers, not unlike today, with the USA and Europe on one side and Russia and China on the other. Thucydides wrote in his History of the Peloponnesian War.
“The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta, made war inevitable.”
After the Persian Wars, Athens transformed the Delian League (originally a defensive alliance) into an Athenian Empire, using its powerful navy to dominate other Greek city-states, extract tribute, and interfere in their affairs. It even moved the treasury from Delos to Athens and funded the construction of the Parthenon. Athens was mainly a maritime power.
Sparta, the traditional land power and leader of the more conservative Peloponnesian League, viewed Athens’ growing power, wealth, and democratic influence with deep suspicion and fear. They saw it as a fundamental threat to their own security, way of life, and leadership in Greece.
There had been a civil war in Epidamnus, which drew in Corcyra (Corfu) and then Corinth (Sparta’s key ally). Corcyra, not part of either league, appealed to Athens for help against Corinth. Athens made a defensive alliance with Corcyra and sent ships, which fought against Corinthian ships at the Battle of Sybota (433 BC). This directly involved Athens in a conflict against a major Spartan ally, heightening Spartan fears of Athenian expansionism. This is what Trump just did by attacking Iran, an ally of both Russia and China.
The Potidaea Revolt (432-429 BC), which was a Corinthian colony, but also a tribute-paying member of the Athenian Empire, revolted with encouragement from Corinth and Sparta. Athens besieged Potidaea. Corinthian troops fought alongside the Potidaeans against the Athenians. This created another direct military clash between Athens and a key Spartan ally (Corinth), further straining relations and giving Sparta’s allies strong grievances against Athens.
Athens banned Megara in 432BC (a Spartan ally strategically located near Athens) from the ports and markets of the Athenian Empire, crippling its economy. This was not unlike the idea of the Neocons imposing sanctions on Iran. Sparta strongly protested this as a violation of the Thirty Years’ Peace and used it as a key justification for war. This economic sanction was seen as particularly harsh and aggressive, providing Sparta with a specific casus belli and rallying support among its allies who feared similar treatment. This is my concern about the attack on Iran that can be seen as religious.
The fundamental cause, as Thucydides argued, was Sparta’s deep-seated fear of Athens’ growing power and imperial ambitions, which made a major conflict seem inevitable to them. Therefore, while Sparta formally declared war, the aggressive actions of its ally Thebes provided the immediate spark, and decades of Athenian expansion created the tinderbox. The Peloponnesian War began with Sparta and its allies taking the offensive against Athens and its empire. This is very similar to Israel’s attack on Iran, akin to Thebes’ attack on Plataea, which can then draw in the superpowers – USA, Russia, and China.
The likelihood of Iran surrendering is ZERO. The Neocons have, as always, judged their target by what they think rather than the thinking process of their target. They have portrayed Trump as a warring president, yet he, too, thought one strike would end the war, listening to the same people who said they could win Vietnam and Iraq would fall in 3 weeks. Like Adam Kinzinger, who boasted that we could defeat Russia in 3 days. They talk to each other and believe their own BS and pat each other on the back for their brilliance.
Even Cicero once said, “Laws are silent in time of war.” Herodotus once said, “For war never ends as expected. Once begun, it takes its own course.” (Herodotus, The Histories, 7.49). And the fake news will keep telling us that Iran is devastated, as is Russia, and we can defeat them in just a few days.
Iran’s defiant leaders fired 40 missiles at Israel on Sunday. As expected, the Neocons never understand their adversary – NEVER! Iran now will feel that almost any action is justified if they are to create weapons to deter future attacks. They would most likely urge their allies to give them nukes. If you understand the background of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, you would immediately comprehend that he will give very little credence to Mr Trump’s claim this weekend that the bombs have “obliterated” the nuclear programme and that Iran should surrender. Iran’s nuclear project is widely dispersed so that the destruction of one does not end their program. It was designed to expect an attack and to survive.
Ayatollah Khamenei’s background is that of a revolutionary cleric who rose through the ranks of the opposition to the Shah, became a key lieutenant to Khomeini, held high office during the Iran-Iraq War, and was chosen as Supreme Leader primarily for his political loyalty and experience within the system, despite initial questions about his religious credentials. His tenure has been characterized by consolidating theocratic control, resisting Western influence, and upholding the core principles of the Islamic Revolution. He no more cares about Iran as a country than the Neocons care about the United States or Europe. They are all motivated by their resolve, if not hatred, of their opponents.
Khamenei became an active opponent of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi’s regime in the 1960s and 1970s. His activism led to multiple arrests and periods of imprisonment by the Shah’s secret police (SAVAK) throughout the 1960s and 70s. He was also tortured during this time. I explained that when Trump was shot, people were saying he would now reverse his rhetoric. I said no, when you face a near-death attempt on your life, you LOSE all sense of any fear of death. You have more resolve and realize that they tried to kill you because you are right.
During periods of freedom and exile within Iran (including in Mashhad and Kirman), Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continued organizing opposition, translating revolutionary texts (like works by Sayyid Qutb), preaching against the Shah, and building networks crucial to the revolution.
Upon the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in June 1989, the Assembly of Experts faced the critical task of selecting a new Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while a senior figure and President, was not considered a top-ranking religious authority (Marja’) at the time. His theological credentials were lower than those of other potential candidates. However, due to his proven loyalty to Khomeini and the revolution, his political experience, his organizational skills within the clerical establishment, and likely the backing of powerful networks within the IRGC and IRP, he was selected as the new Supreme Leader. To address the issue of his religious rank, he was quickly promoted to the rank of Ayatollah (and later Grand Ayatollah/Marja’), though this remains a point of contention among some traditional Shi’a clergy outside Iran.
As Supreme Leader, Khamenei has systematically consolidated power over the military (especially the IRGC), the judiciary, the media, and key economic sectors. He has ultimate authority over all branches of government and key state institutions. A staunch advocate of Khomeini’s doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), his resistance to Western (especially US) influence, Islamic unity, technological advancement, and support for “oppressed” groups, such as the Palestinians, ultimately prevailed. The Neocons clearly fail to understand their target. These Neocons constantly make every single mistake driven by their fanaticism, no different than they talk about the Islamic terrorists. Both believe only in their myopic view of the other.
The UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES that these Neocons have again overlooked are the reality that this attack will by no means end this war, and Iran will not surrender. This will lead to terrorist attacks and civil unrest in Europe. As always, these Neocons only look at their personal hatred and never care about the people or the country.
Posted Jun originally on 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Well, Iran voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Thank you for explaining the Iran-China connection. I now understand how this becomes an option.
Sam
QUESTION: The last report you did on the cycle of war with Israel turned up on April 1, 2025. That was the precise day when Jerusalem police detained several dozen protesters and arrested two of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s top aides—Yonatan Urich and Eli Feldstein—on corruption charges linked to alleged bribes from Qatar. The IDF intensified operations in Gaza, especially around Rafah and Khan Younis, and Israeli warplanes bombed southern Beirut. Your model projected from 2025 to 2029. Do you have any plans to update on the Middle East?
REPLY: The Iranian parliament has indeed approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US strikes against their nuclear facilities. This is the passage through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows. The two central oil-producing countries that use this route are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Those in the West, like the head of the Institute for the Study of War, General Keane, another hardline Neocon at Victoria Nuland’s sister-in-law’s operation, keep judging others by themselves. They seem to think that they can force political change by armed force, and somehow, the people will rise up against the government to achieve their goal. That’s the same thinking behind sanctions. Punish the Russian people enough, and they will overthrow Putin. I have never witnessed this philosophy ever working, even once.
My concern is that even the moderates in the region have become skeptical of Israel since it started stepping up its assassinations of generals and nuclear scientists. From what I’ve heard, that has changed things for some Iranians who would have been opposed to the Supreme Leader. When I conducted this research report on how governments are overthrown, to my shock, it turns out that on average, it takes less than 15% of real devoted rebels to overthrow a government.
Yes, updating the cycle of war for the Middle East is on the list of priorities. My sources in several Arab countries have all said the same thing: businesses are closed, and they are in shock that Trump acted the way he did. They are uncertain about the future of the Middle East now. So this is a top priority.
US legislators are fighting to prevent America from becoming involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, but it is too late. The war cycle cannot be stopped, and the next cycle will peak in 2026/2027 on target. Our computer warned that there was an elevated risk for a confrontation beginning in 2025 on a global scale.
US senators on both sides of the political spectrum are attempting to introduce legislation that would prevent Donald Trump from declaring war on Iran. The Bipartisan House War Powers Resolution has received support from the Republican Senator Thomas Massie, who is perhaps the most outspoken against declaring war on Israel’s behalf. “This is not our war. But if it were, Congress must decide such matters according to our Constitution,” Massie stated. The bill is not an actual bipartisan bill, as Massie is the only Libertarian leaning Republican championing such a measure. Many are now questioning the GOP as everyone seems keen to attack Iran. Yet, Donald Trump repeatedly promised that the US would not enter into any foreign wars under his command. In fact, Trump accused Obama of attempting to attack Iran back in 2011, but Obama had other priorities in the Middle East.
Senator Bernie Sanders introduced the No War Against Iran Act, which would prohibit the use of federal funds for military action against Iran without approval from Congress. The only exception would be if war was declared through the War Powers Act, or War Powers Resolution of 1973, which grants the POTUS the ability to send American troops into battle if Congress receives a 48-hour notice. The stipulation here is that troops cannot remain in battle for over 60 days unless Congress authorizes a declaration of war. Congress could also remove US forces at any time by passing a resolution.
The War Powers Act was last enacted under Barack Obama in 2011 when he sent troops into Libya. The resolution had not been enforced since 1998 when President Bill Clinton sent armed forces into Kosovo. Yet, Obama was able to bypass the law and the military remained in Libya for over 60 days without Congressional approval, marking the first time in US history that a president defied the War Powers Act. House Republicans attempted to block any federal funding, but their efforts were ultimately unsuccessful. Obama single-handedly dismantled the entire War Powers Act, as it did not matter what Congress did or did not do—the president had the sole authority to wage war.
There was a major ECM turning point on June 13, 2011. That marked the beginning of a new 8.6-year wave within the broader 51.6-year cycle. What happened right then? The Arab Spring, the destruction of Libya, and a sharp rise in geopolitical instability. That intervention was unauthorized and illegal by constitutional standards.
Senator Tim Kaine would also like to invoke the War Powers Act, but these people must understand that the act died in 2011 when the US entered Libya to overthrow Gaddafi. The government can say anything to propel a nation into war, and weapons of mass destruction are a tried and true premise. What makes this more dangerous is that we’ve since entered a cycle where unelected bureaucrats—Neocons, intelligence operatives, and shadow advisers—run foreign policy, not the American people or even Congress. Obama’s disregard for the War Powers Act helped solidify that shift.
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