Tag Archives: Cycle of war

Aug 18 2020

Kondratieff Wave – COVID – Future


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Aug 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I would first like to thank you for your work on the public and private blogs so we small investors can understand the greater trend that has been building for quite some time.
I also hope that your health conditions have gotten better and that you are recovering.
Your work has deeply shifted my view from the university education that I have just now finished; ideological stances are everywhere.
However, I am confused about a subject that is not an economic one -COVID.

Regardless of the political motives being used with this virus to create the premises of a “new” socialist revolution (political Economy); this virus has come right around the 2020 solar minimum so are we to expect this virus to continue in some way shape or form (Mutate or another virus)?

Furthermore, what guidance would you give to the next generation (West), those coming in this new cycle of China’s undeniable Empire now facing inward in building their domestic economy?
We are seeing all the hallmarks of the end of the Western Empire’s absolute reign with crippling doomsayers, more broadly the cultural landscape of the West (Climate Change, Equality against Freedom)?

You have said that we will see a rise in the commodity cycle, is the commodity cycle synched with the Kondratieff wave of the new Energy being needed to create this new future.
Are these rare minerals part of the bigger trend?

The ground is moving but as Churchill once said we must “Never let a good crisis go to waste”

Thank you for reading this entirely, I hope you all the best
Sincerely
RLB

ANSWER: The Kondratieff Wave has been seriously abused over the years. Look at the economic structure from when he constructed that data for the wave. Commodities were 70% of the economy during the mid-19th century, falling to about 40% by 1900, and eventually 3% by 1980. This is why the Kondratieff Wave failed to work as people were predicting. The next ideal turning point will be 2028.

If I constructed a cycle based on the snapshot of the economy today, 70% would be the service industry. But things change with time so the model must also adapt to the changing structure of the economy. Additionally, there were waves of innovation pointed out by Schumpeter, but even this still missed the underlying causes. Prices certainly soared during the war, for this is when food production was also disrupted. Make no mistake about it, this COVID scare has reduced food production precisely as what unfolds during a war.

Even this still fails to dig deep enough. This was also a solar minimum. We were gradually coming out of the Little Ice Age and it was still cold into 1850. Therefore, the rise in warming was been a dead-cat bounce. Consequently, we are still in a position where we are vulnerable to a decline in solar activity, which is already reducing food production. Shortages will be seen in North Korea which will incentivize an invasion of the South if they see the USA becoming divided and weak. We also see crop failure in China. The rise in prices will be from SHORTAGES, not speculative demand.

Even if we assume that this virus was manmade, that does not prevent it from mutating. The common cold is a coronavirus and we cannot cure that. This will most likely mutate for years to come. That does not mean we should be locked down with masks for the rest of our lives.

As far as guidance is concerned, first, forget European languages and start studying Mandarin. As far as skills, look to technology. Programming will be critical, for it teaches you what is possible in this new age of artificial intelligence.

Aug 15 2020

Left – Right – Middle – Inevitable


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

re-Posted Aug 14, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you think the Republicans are any better than the Democrats in Washington?

SP

ANSWER: All career politicians are a problem for they lack contact with the people. Longer-term, this form of government I seriously doubt will last. This is the very same problem of corruption that infected the Roman Republic which ended in the civil war and then Imperial Rome began. If you look at Athens, there was a constant battle between the oligarchy and those who were Democrats. Representative government has never been sustainable because politicians can be bribed.

The crisis with the Democrats is confined to the leadership which is pandering to the extreme left. My father was a Democrat. Not all Democrats are evil. The vast majority are not extreme left which will make this election very interesting. Then about 10% of the people are truly independent and will swing back and forth. The middle ground Democrats and Republicans have always worked together. But make no mistake about it, all career politicians of both parties are protective and do not like outsiders. They did not like Ronald Reagan at first because he was only a governor. Note that they picked Harris for VP not that she is qualified, but that (1) she is part black, (2) a woman, and (3) a Senator so she is in the game.

All Republics die from oligarchies and become infested with corruption. They hated Trump before he even took office BECAUSE he was not one of them regardless of his comments. It has always been a closed club. My father as a lawyer who defended a client against Republican U.S. Senator Joseph McCarthy in his hearings.

Had the Supreme Court simply ruled honestly that Equal Protection is not limited to race, creed, or gender, but also class, we would not have this Marxist struggle. If you bad mouth a minority it is hate speech. If you bad mouth someone who has more than the average in material wealth you are exposing an injustice. If the Supreme Court simply upheld the constitution which makes no exception based upon any grounds, we would not have this clash between the parties and reduce the class warfare which ALWAYS leads to the collapse of every Republic in history.

Aug 15 2020

Markets, the Future & This Craziness


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Re-Posted Aug 14, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

It is impossible to forecast the markets without this political war that is taking place and the organized Great Reset. People have asked what about the extreme Republicans? It is very hard to find the middle ground any more. Both parties have their middle and those in the Democrats I speak too are equally concerned about the extreme left which has taken control. I have explained that this appears to be the last stand for the extreme old-guard in the Democrats. Their proposals of bailing out all state government pensions and to impose a tax on every transaction in the markets aside from income taxes will certainly undermine the economy long-term.

The extreme left in the Democrats only brings out the extreme right in the Republicans. We have also had enough of this 99% conviction rate and judges who always rule in favor of the government. We are simply without representation in the middle ground. The future will be so determined by events in the 2020 election. But regardless of who wins, the financial capital of the world will be moving anyhow by 2032.

This appears to be a question of global confidence which will turn on the election. But there are rising protests and the middle ground Democrats are becoming very disturbed by these tactics that seek to punish the people in hopes of overthrowing Trump. But the damage to the global economy will only start to surface after the election only because the life-preserver in many regions cannot be maintained forever and people who have lost their jobs will be out on the street. Only then will we see the true extent of this mess.

Aug 13 2020

A Plea from a Member of the Italian Parliament – International Call to Action


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Aug 13, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

International call to action: demand your governments to access the technical-scientific data of Covid-19 emergency!

Italian international call to action demanding transparency and data on Covid-19.

We are appealing to all the associations (and citizens) whose Countries have experienced and are still experiencing restrictive measures like Italy. We need to share with you an unacceptable fact and we want to ask other citizens in the world to take action in order to shed light on the many shadows that envelop the emergency situation we are facing.

We are an Italian association 1 fighting for freedom of choice in the vaccination and therapeutical fields since 1993, but we are here today speaking also to those associations that do not totally agree with our way of thinking and living freedom.

Italian people have gone through the Covid-19 pandemic strictly following the rules imposed. Italian people have complied with the Government’s restrictions and provisions but even so, for months we have been watching tv programs showing drones, helicopters and law enforcement vessels chasing and identifying individual citizens walking deserted streets or empty beaches, 2-3-4-5-6-7 and even law enforcement precluding religious services. Media have been pointing the finger at the runners, ordinary citizens going solo for a run, suddenly becoming terrible plague spreaders and primary cause of infection, according to the mainstream media narrative.

We are silently accepting our Country’s economy to fall apart and we should at least expect that our Government, responsible for the imposed restrictive measures, would clarify and be willing to provide evidence and answers to the people.

Every single choice the Italian Government made to manage the Covid-19 emergency, was and will be based on the opinion of the Technical-Scientific Committee (CTS). A small number of people called the shots of the Government Agenda, from the forms and lasting of Lockdown, to the masks, the social distancing, and any regulatory act always issued “having consulted the CTS”.
Recently, three lawyers, being part of a foundation, decided to file a FOIA (request for access to documents) , specifically requesting to view the minutes of the Scientific Technical Committee of February 18th, March 1st, 7th, 30th and April 9th. The data and opinions expressed and collected in these minutes are basically the reason, the drive, the foundation for the Government to have issued every act relating to the Covid-19 emergency management.

After the request has been rejected at first instance, the lawyers have been forced to apply to a Court. On July 23rd, 2020 the Regional Administrative Court of Lazio (TAR) had ruled in favour of the publication of the documents by August 21st at the latest. 8

And here is the shocking and for us unacceptable fact: the Italian Government, through the State’s attorney, on July 31st opposed 9the Court (TAR) ruling, motivating that the publication would have caused “a real damage to public order and security that exposing the CTS minutes, at this stage of the emergency, would cause for both technical assessments and general guidelines of the technical body”. 10

On August, 5th 2020, we learned from journalistic sources 11 and from the same lawyers who had requested access to the documents, 12 that the Italian government will publish these minutes, but the question remains unchanged:

Why did not it make immediately transparent what really happened in the emergency? If the Italian government acted on expert opinions, why did it oppose the publication of the data? What are the contents of these reports that should cause damage? Why would damage to public order and security even be expected?

In the next days we will inform everyone about the content of these minutes, verifying together with many experts who work alongside us, if the emergency policies have been correctly undertaken, if they were fair or exaggerated or disproportionate, up to at least the end of the State of Emergency, but the fact that the Government has opposed the publication of documents that should be public, worries us greatly. We remind that the news of the declassification of the minutes, if analyzed with intellectual honesty, show that it took place solely for political conflicts with the parliamentary opposition, not for true listening and transparency towards citizenship.

All of you reading us, both ordinary citizens and associations, have at your disposal a tool created for this kind of action, the Freedom of Information Act, 13 that is the law granting freedom of information and public access to data held by national governments!

Anyone, by a legal team but also independently, may submit along the same lines a request for access to the documents aimed at verifying what are the conditions, the minutes, the documents that the various Countries have based on to pass decrees and various acts in the context of the Covid-19 emergency, obviously in relation to those acts that brought a counterpart in economic and limitations of personal freedoms terms. In our opinion, this is necessary, not because of a priori mistrust but because of a proper civic sense and supervisory task, democratically exercised with the tools available which exist precisely for these purposes.

If you believe that there are the conditions to raise legitimate doubts in the management of Covid-19 and if your Government has not made public all the data, opinions and “advice” of the experts dedicated to the Covid-19 emergency that have led to pass laws with inevitable strong impact on citizens’ lives in the short and long term, request in first person to make the original data and reports visionable!

Repropose this action in various Countries increases the possibility of shedding light on the management of this emergency situation linked to Covid-19, where the Italian government has instead vetoed this possibility, at least for now.

We are here to support all interested parties, according to our capabilities we will provide further clarification and our help for better understanding how the request has been put forward and how the Government has decided to reply.

A coordinated action is important and useful above all because it gives a clear sign of the people’s need and will to have answers, and it also increases the chances to obtain data and answers in this regard.

Thanks to everybody,
Corvelva Staff
Document undersigned by:

Sara Cunial, Member of Parliament
Ivan Catalano, President of COSMI, former MP and former Vicepresident of the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry “Depleted Uranium”
Davide Barillari, Regional councillor of Lazio and President of the Commission Pluralism of Information
ADER
CliVa Toscana
Colibrì Puglia
Cittadini liberi consapevoli Puglia
CReLDiS
GruppiUniti.it
Genitori del No Obbligo Lombardia
VacciPiano Sicilia
… e molti altri
References
Website for International Call

If Bill Gates Was President

Aug 10 2020

China & US War in 3 Months?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Aug 10, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

The former Labor Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd has come out in a piece he wrote in Foreign Affairs – Beware the Guns of August—in Asia. Rudd is claiming that the US and China may go to war in three months ahead of the US elections. This is clearly the left trying to claim that Trump will start a war just to win the White House. This seems to be simply part of this entire global quest to usher in socialism and end capitalism. The left simply wants total power. Just look at Melbourne, Australia. This one beautiful city I visited often ios now a prison camp using COVID to strip people of all human rights. The police may now enter anyone’s home without a warrant and they imposed a Curfew 8:00 pm.

This entire issue of rising tensions will not lead to war under Trump. Even if China were to invade Taiwan, the US is not likely to send in ground troops. China is flexing its muscles because the West is committing politic-economic suicide with COVID. China knows the agenda and it is being driven by Bill Gates. Activists have been pushing US institutions to sell all investments in China because they are not yielding to the Climate Change Agenda. This is breaking the economic link that does prevent war.

In addition, China is moving to expand its own domestic consumer economy. It has adopted a different pather than Europe which clings to socialism and Germany is still a mercantilistic economy. China will become the new Financial Capital of the World because it is adopting a domestic view while the Democrats in the USA are trying to follow Europe and subjugate the productive capacity of the nation under Marxist class warfare.

While there is no question that war is coming. However, not simply because Trump needs to win the election. Yes, China has been staging assault practices to invade Taiwan. They have suppressed Hong Kong which was a vital economic link for its economy. The subjugation of Hong Kong shows that China’s economy has matured enough that it no longer needs to funnel business through Hong Kong. Many businesses borrowed in Hong Kong and took the cash directly back to China.

The confrontation cycle between China and Taiwan turned up in 2018 and we should expect this to really escalate into 2023. Nevertheless, underlying models do not look good economically for Taiwan. This entire COVID nonsense has seen as much as a 90% drop in profits for some of the biggest companies in Taiwan.

There is clearly a risk that 2020 could prove to be the major high and a decline into 2024 may unfold. This was a high volatility yearly target and we have witnessed an outside reversal to the upside. This may be the conclusion of this long-standing confrontation. With COVID raging in the West, there will be no economic basis to defend Taiwan from Europe or the USA. China knows the West cannot afford a war after destroying its economy. If I were China, I would wait for these further lockdowns to wipe out the various economics and that will reduce the threat of any retaliation. This will be like Rome expanding after the Greeks fought among themselves dividing their empire.

Macedonia Monetary History | Armstrong Economics

Titus Quinctius Flamininus (c. 228–174BC) was a Roman politician and general who was instrumental in the Roman conquest of Greece. That came 309.6 years from the birth of the Roman Republic. The fall of Greece to Rome came about 224 years from the peak of Greece prior to its conquest by Macedonia. Europe peaked really with the French Revolution. That came 224 years before the peak in government confidence which was 2015.75. From there onward, we have has not just BREXIT, but the election of Trump and the collapse in the basic civility within politics.

The Cycle of War has been edited and is off to the printer. The full scope of what we face has been provided in that book.

Aug 7 2020

Something is Wrong


Blog/Basic Concepts

Posted Aug 7, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: At the WEC in Orlando, you said something was wrong. Was the computer picking up this event of a crash being contrived?

JF

ANSWER: The computer clearly was picking something beginning in August 2019, which corresponded to the start of the Repo Crisis and the reaction high in the Russel 2000. Yes, I warned that there would be a crash with the turn in the Economic Confidence Model in January 2020. A divergence was clearly unfolding and has been very dramatic. The failure of the Dow and Russel 2000 to rally compared to the NASDAQ reflected a Paradigm Shift, which also took place during the Great Depression.

This is by no means a normal market, which is why the fundamental analysis makes no sense. The stock market rises while the economy declines. However, it is only selected segments of the economy, which is why there is such a disconnect between indexes and reality.

Aug 6 2020

How Many Times? That Is The Question


Finance Committee Hearing or Liberal Campaign Ad?

Ken Grafton image

Re-posted from the Canada Free Press By  —— Bio and Archives—August 4, 2020

How Many Times? That Is The Question

Prime Minister Trudeau testified before the Parliamentary Finance Committee on July 30th in connection with the WE Charity scandal, currently under investigation by Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion.

Canadians can be forgiven for wondering why.

Amping up the Trudeau charm, well lit and smiling directly into a high-resolution camera, coiffed hair blacker than beard; the relaxed PM was clearly focused upon communicating directly with voters, rather than answering questions from committee members.

The Trudeau brand was under attack, and the message for Canadians was that his Liberal government is doing a great job. The narrative ran that they would in fact be doing even more for Canadians, if it weren’t for Conservatives bringing up this nettlesome conflict of interest thing. Sure, he should have recused himself from approving the sole-source WE contract, but that wouldn’t have happened if it weren’t for COVID-19…and his long-standing interest in youth-affairs. The Liberals’ commitment to providing financial assistance to students during COVID-19 led to an accelerated implementation of the CSSG Program…which caused the PM to slow down the approval process because of the increased scrutiny and appearance of conflict of interest that his family affiliation with WE would bring…before then failing to recuse himself from the process. The Civil Service made all the decisions anyway, not the PM. If the logic is difficult to grasp here…well….

Although it is impossible to disconnect the damming, feculent bright-red Liberal dots leading from WE to the Prime Minister, distraught Liberal spin doctors had obviously been billing some overtime on damage control.

The central pivot from conflict of interest and Liberal corruption seems to be good intentions and the tremendous benefit to young Canadians that could have been…if only the unfortunate scandal hadn’t blown up (read, if they hadn’t been caught).

Canadians should blame the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecoise, for making a mountain out of a mole-hill, really…when you think about it…from a Liberal prospective…

The questioning began:

MP Pierre Poilievre – “What is the total dollar value of all expenses reimbursed and fees paid and any other consideration provided by the WE group to you, your mother, your spouse, your brother and any other member of your family? Just the total please.”

PM Trudeau – “Uh…I don’t have that exact figure…uh…reimbursing expenses is something done by an organization…uh…for example…so I don’t have…uh…those totals.”

Liberal MP Julie Dzerowicz (trying) – “Mister Speaker…uh…Point of Order…Mister Chair, sorry…not Mister Speaker. My Point of Order is what’s the relevance of these questions…uh…of ancillary…uh…fees paid to family members to the official motion…?”

Chairman Wayne Easter – “I don’t think that is a Point of Order Miss Dzerowicz, back to Mister Poilievre.”
Poilievre – “So you are telling me that you don’t know how much immediate family members have been paid in expense reimbursements by this organization.”
Trudeau – “Uh…my mother and my brother are professionals in their own right who…uh…have…uh engagements…uh…and have for many, many years with organizations across the country…”
Poilievre – “Do you know?”
Trudeau – “…uh…and I…uh…don’t have the details of their…uh…work…uh…work experiences of their…uh…expenses.”
Poilievre – “What about your spouse? What is the dollar figure?”
Trudeau – “Uh…WE…uh…I think WE Charity has been able to share those figures with you.”
Poilievre – “When was the last time that she had an expense reimbursed by WE Charity?”
Trudeau – “Uh…I…uh…believe it would have been to uh…”

As one can gather from this short excerpt, the Prime Minister was less than forthcoming. It’s a fine line between pivoting and refusing to answer. In Court, it may well have led to a charge of Contempt. Perhaps a Contempt of Parliament charge would be appropriate here.

Trudeau’s repetitive and vexatious use of the word “uh”

Also telling was Trudeau’s repetitive and vexatious use of the word “uh”. In linguistics, “uh” is known as a “hesitation form”, or “filler word”. Filler words are often a red flag for deception. In Psychology Today, Professor Jack Schafer of Western Illinois University, a behavioral analyst for the FBI, explains. “Little words, often ignored in normal speech, can signal deception. Words such as um and uh indicate cognitive load. Liars experience increased cognitive load. Um and uh signal impending delays is speech. Liars need time to evaluate their answers to ensure their lie will be believed. Liars also need additional time to choose the right words to camouflage the truth. Truthful people do not need extra time to convey information.”

The Prime Minister wouldn’t lie though, would he?

So, what are the issues with WE-Gate exactly?

The growing Hydra-like list may keep Commissioner Dion up at night:

  • Was CSSG designed specifically for WE to administer?
  • Why the Canada Service Corps was not tasked with CSSG?
  • Why a sole-source contract?
  • Details of due diligence done, due to the fact that WE appeared to be in financial trouble and in violation of bank covenants. WE Board Members had resigned and mass layoffs of staff had occurred. WE had also never delivered a similar program previously.
  • Why was WE paid $30M upfront, and how will it repay taxpayers?
  • Why was a WE real estate shell company used, instead of WE Charity?
  • Why was a $30M upfront payment made on contract award?
  • WE claimed initially that the PMO had called, asking if they wanted the CSSG contract.
  • Who authorized WE, and why, to begin spending money on May 5th, prior to June 23rd approval?
  • Failure to recuse/Conflict of Interest –
    • PM has spoken for WE in past
    • WE has paid for Trudeau campaign ads/gave Trudeau a platform to connect with hundreds of thousands of young voters
    • WE has paid Margaret and Alexander Trudeau
    • WE has paid Sophie Trudeau
    • WE relationship with Katie Telford
    • WE paid Bill Morneau $42K expenses
    • WE employs two Morneau daughters.

Beyond the blatant corruption

Beyond the blatant corruption issues however, the CSSG model may have also been fatally flawed from birth. The very real possibility exists that CSSG could violate Minimum Wage laws. CSSG would pay a student up to $10 per hour, which is less than the minimum wages in all of Canada’s provinces and territories. If the concept of paid volunteers seems counter-intuitive, the law actually recognizes two classes of volunteers. According to Labour Law firm Goldblatt Partners, “Volunteers are not covered by the Employment Standards Act in Ontario, and need not be paid the minimum wage. But that does not mean that an employer can evade its obligations under the Act by classifying anyone as a volunteer. Only a ‘true volunteer’ is excluded from the protections of the Act…if a participating student views the program as a means to make a livelihood during a time that fewer summer jobs are available, they may be able to argue that they are not a ‘true volunteer.’” A class action lawsuit waiting to happen then.

But, back to the show.

Poilievre (translation) – “I have a simple question for you. How many times does a Minister in your Government need to break the Ethics Act before being sacked? How many times?”
Trudeau (translation) – “We…uh…take it very seriously, every time there are Ethics issues…
Poilievre – “How many times?”
Trudeau – “…and…”
Poilievre – “How many times?”
Chair – “The Prime Minister has the floor…and he has the right to answer. Mister Prime Minister”

He had the right to answer, but apparently not the ability.

How many times? That is the question…for all Canadians.

Great campaign slogan for Conservatives next election cycle…

Jul 31 2020

The Cycle of Socialism – Is It Inevitable?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Jul 31, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Marty,

I am hoping you can post this Q in your public blog.

I have been following you for several years now and I think you have a great mind. You are clearly a deep thinker and as a result of being such you obviously see solutions to problems others can’t see.

But why do you try to control what you ultimately claim is simply natural, i.e. part of cycles?**

When I say control, I mean for example, you might say in public (on your public blogs), I disagree with socialism, and yet, is not socialism nothing more than a natural part of the ultimate economic/legal/political/property cycle which began out of the feudal era? I mean the cycle where the ratio of people who can pursue their self-interests grows and shrinks? We are clearly in that part of the cycle where this ratio is very high and may have even peaked. But does not the pursuit of self-interests also include and permit the ability to become political, to become socialist, to become a policy/law maker, to become a property owner, to become a greeny, to become controlling and to become a loud speaker for all sorts of political agendas such as climate change and all these other dramas (all of which are acting out as a means to protect self-interests)?

It is clear to me that when I view the economy, property, and politics, from a purely legal perspective, we are definitely in a zero-sum game because no legal right can exist in isolation (for every legal right there must be a legal obligation on another or others). Therefore, it seems to me that at the eventual end of this cycle, less and less people will be able to pursue their self-interests (in other words we will return to something like feudal times), simply because too many have been allowed to pursue their self-interests. It’s all a cycle, yes?

What is the solution to world where everything is subject to the law of contract (i.e. everything is treated as a commodity)? Is there a solution, or is the cycle inevitable?

DW

ANSWER: The cycle cannot be altered. The very best we can hope for is to reduce the amplitude. My concern involves what comes AFTER this chaos post-2032. The danger of Marxism in any form, Socialist to Communist, is that these morons think they can have a better life. They end up creating a police state whereby they surrender all their rights to ensure the oppression of others, who they hate because they are told that they are the victims of the rich. I am against oppression and socialistic philosophy, for it leads only to one place.

That said, providing aid to people in need is NOT socialism — that has taken place for centuries. Here is a gold aureus of the Roman Emperor Trajan struck about 111 AD announcing his program to aid orphans. Being charitable should be an honest charity. Socialism is robbery whereby they only seek to take from others for themselves. That is by no means charity.

There is clearly a cycle of oppression and freedom. What is very clear is that no matter what form of government we have, there is the inevitable mismanagement that goes with it. All forms of government collapse — there are no exceptions. Each will rise from the ashes of the last and promise utopia, only to become the very evil they swore to eliminate.

There is absolutely ZERO justice in any legal system, no matter what country. When “The Forecaster” debuted in Germany, there was a discussion after the film. One person said that would NEVER happen in Germany. Then two German lawyers rose and said they do this to people in Germany all the time. There is no such thing as “justice,” for it is always as Thrasymachus warned Socrates thousands of years ago — it is only the interest of the government. Edward Snowden exposed that the government was acting illegally against the people of the United States. The government calls him a traitor and would kill him like Jeffrey Epstein in the blink of an eye not because he betrayed the people or the Constitution, but because he exposed the corruption in government.

Take this current outrage against the police. This is all the result of the Supreme Court creating IMMUNITY out of thin air for all government judges, prosecutors, and police. There is NOTHING in the Constitution that gives them the power to create such immunity that is in direct contradiction of the Declaration of Independence.

I do not believe that we can ever prevent the cycle. However, that does not mean that those of us to can see the cycle coming like a train must stand there and not move off the tracks. That said, this has been the cycle third 51.6 year Economic Confidence Wave from the rise of socialism 1882.45, 1934.05, and 1985.65. This is the wave when Marxism collapses. They are making a major effort to take over the world by sheer force using this virus to destroy the economy as much as possible and use this to justify nationalizing industry. This is part of their planned takeover and is behind the rising civil unrest that will unleash international war.

The very first wave into this cycle saw the collapse of communism 1989.95, and 43 years later (half 86-year cycle), we will meet the collapse of Western socialism. There is no stopping this cycle. To survive, we need to understand the trend in order to step out of the way when it comes. Property prices are rising in the suburbs because of this virus. Black Lives Matter is used as a cover for those simply using it for criminal activities who pretend to be part of the movement that has been compelling people to leave urban centers. Property in the Hamptons is reaching all-time new highs as people vacate New York City, whereas prices are collapsing in states like Illinois and urban centers. Real estate has become very diverse in trend.

Capitalism is simply the freedom to pursue your own happiness. The bribery of government is corruption and not capitalism any more than Bill Gates or George Soros using their money to try to reshape the world to their liking. That is by no means justified, and it is tyranny no different than Marx or any government. They have NO right to try to force the people to do as they command. Socialism cannot exits outside of authoritarianism to force people to comply with its mandates.

Categories: Economics
Jul 27 2020

The Fall of the United Nations


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A

Re-Posted Jul 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear Martin, The UN Charter was formed 26 June 1945 86 years will take it to June 2031. Does the UN Agenda 2030 coincide with a collapse of it’s forced agenda?
J
ANSWER: According to our models, the United Nations, as we know it, will come to an end by 2031 following the old League of Nations. They have made a strategic play in an attempt to become the world government by using both this virus and climate change, continually calling for governments to submit to their direction. Our model clearly shows that Bill Gates and Soros will also fail. They have unleashed the destruction of Western Society, and this social distancing is precisely the opposite of what encourages the formation of civilization. What lies ahead will be the topic of a special report after the elections laying out the various paths that we face going into the future.
PS: We have finished the editing process on “The Cycle of War,” and it is going to print shortly.
Jul 27 2020

Italexit – New Party in Italy to Exit the EU


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Jul 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

We are witnessing the rise of the new party in Italy headed by Gianluigi Paragone calling for the exit of there EU. New Italian party calls for the exit from EU bolding saying: “Germany takes everything and leaves the crumbs to the rest of the states.” As the economic hardship rises thanks to the virus scam, this risk our computer shows is not that they will win, but they are sowing the seeds of their own destruction. They will move to eliminate the physical currency and then they will advocate for perpetual bonds.

Paragone began as a journalist. In 2018 he was elected Senator of the Five Star Movement. Then on January 1, 2020, he was officially excluded from the Five Star Movement but remained in the Senate as an independent. Then now in July 2020, Paragone has launched his own political movement, Italexit, with the aim of bringing Italy out of the European Union

The oppression of this virus agenda to force compliance with their Great Reset runs the risk of destroying the economies of Southern Europe which have a very high reliance upon tourism which has been brought to a halt in Europe.