Appearing on Stage in Vancouver earlier today with the head of TED Chris Anderson, Elon Musk discusses why he has made a financial bid to purchase the social media platform Twitter. The video is prompted to 11:40 when Musk takes the stage, the first part of the conversation surrounds the Twitter announcement that had made global headlines only a few hours earlier. WATCH:
The U.S. Census Bureau {LINK} reports the March retail sales data {pdf LINK} showing a contraction in sales overall (excluding gasoline) and a massive contraction in on-line sales. As we expected, we are seeing the continued demand side contraction for non-essential purchases.
First, when you review the data, keep in mind all of the statistics are based on dollars. Currently the BLS calculates the rate of inflation at 8.5 percent year over year. So, when we look at retail sales figures, we must remember the items being sold cost more. Any reported sales figures in a sector that do not exceed the inflation in that sector, indicates decline in units sold.
The top-line for March retail sales is 0.5% growth; however, the rate of inflation is 8.5%, so the amount of goods sold is substantially less than the 0.5% dollar increase would indicate. Subtract the sales of gasoline (w/ massive price increases), and retail sales are negative (-0.3%) in March. SEE TABLE-2
A good category to note the contraction in non-essential purchases is electronics and appliances. Again, CORE inflation in that segment is around 6%, and yet total sales were only 3.3% higher, meaning less actual units sold. Compared to 2021, electronics and appliance sales dropped 9.7%.
Showing how much people are pinched, gasoline prices are around 60% higher than this time last year, yet gas station sales only increased by 8.9%. This means people are buying a lot less fuel at much higher prices. People have shifted their transportation habits because gas costs so much.
Two more very interesting notes:
Food and beverage stores only reflected a 1.0% increase in sales, amid massive inflation in that sector. People are buying less food at higher prices. The year-over-year rate of retail sales increase for supermarkets is 8.4%, however, prices in the grocery store are well beyond 20%. Again, food prices are changing shopping habits. You can see the same trend in Health and Beauty Care products. Consumers are being thrifty and prioritizing their expenses away from non-essentials.
Secondly, perhaps the most obvious shift in consumer spending is noted in on-line (nonstore) retailers. March retail sales dropped 6.4 percent for on-line shoppers, again as a consequence of much higher on-line prices and some product unavailability.
The bottom line of the Retail Sales report is not unfamiliar to us. What we are seeing is a lessening in overall consumer spending, as the costs for food, fuel, energy and housing have skyrocketed. The demand for non-essential purchases is what we would naturally expect to see amid a nation having to make tough purchasing decisions based on inflation.
The economic policy of the people behind Joe Biden is catastrophic, and it appears to be a feature not a flaw.
That said, wise people -including people here- know how to extend their budgets and make use of raw ingredients for multiple purposed meals. Keep doing that as much as possible to offset the dramatic increases in price. Look for sales, use coupons, multipurpose products and be smart with purchase decisions.
We can and will get through this together.
If you have tips for people to assist with lowering costs of everyday items, please feel free to share them in the comments section below. We always find excellent ideas around us for small ways to save.
Coming from a family whose Tupperware® was a matching set of Cool Whip containers, I can tell you there are times when being frugal is a valued skillset. I welcome all the great advice we share as a community, and I will not let these horrible government officials remove joy.
I’ve been broke more than most, but I ain’t never been poor.
I appreciate you.
April 14, 2022 | sundance | 553 Comments
The richest man in the world, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, made an offer to purchase the Twitter platform for a price of $41 billion. The offer represents a value of 38% more than the current evaluation. [SEC FILING HERE] The offer is filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission proposing a full takeover for $54.20 per share in cash.
Within the filing Elon Musk states his intentions:
“I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy. However, since making my investment I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form. Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company.
As a result, I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced. My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder. Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it. (SEC LINK)
What Elon Musk appears to be doing is perhaps the biggest story that few understand.
I share this perspective having spent thousands of hours in the past several years deep in the weeds of tech operating systems, communication platforms, and the issue of simultaneous users. What Twitter represents, and what Musk is attempting, is not what most would think.
In the big picture of tech platforms, Twitter, as an operating model, is a massive high-user commenting system.
Twitter is not a platform built around a website; Twitter is a platform for comments and discussion that operates in the sphere of social media. As a consequence, the technology and data processing required to operate the platform does not have an economy of scale.
There is no business model where Twitter is financially viable to operate…. UNLESS the tech architecture under the platform was subsidized.
In my opinion, there is only one technological system and entity that could possibly underwrite the cost of Twitter to operate. That entity is the United States Government, and here’s why.
Unlike websites and other social media, Twitter is unique in that it only represents a platform for user engagement and discussion. There is no content other than commentary, discussion and the sharing of information – such as linking to other information, pictures, graphics, videos url links etc.
In essence, Twitter is like the commenting system on the CTH website. It is the global commenting system for users to share information and debate. It is, in some ways, like the public square of global discussion. However, the key point is that user engagement on the platform creates a massive amount of data demand.
Within the systems of technology for public (user engagement) commenting, there is no economy of scale. Each added user represents an increased cost to the operation of the platform, because each user engagement demands database performance to respond to the simultaneous users on the platform. The term “simultaneous users” is critical to understand because that drives the cost.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Twitter has approximately 217 million registered daily users, and their goal is to expand to 315 million users by the end of 2023. Let me explain why things are not what they seem.
When people, users, operate on a tech platform using the engagement features, writing comments, hitting likes, posting images, links etc, the user is sending a data request to the platforms servers. The servers must then respond allowing all simultaneous users to see the change triggered by the single user.
Example: when you hit the “like” button feature on an engagement system, the response (like increasing by one) must not only be visible to you, but must also be visible to those simultaneously looking at the action you took. If 100,000 simultaneous users are looking at the same thing, the database must deliver the response to 100,000 people. As a result, the number of simultaneous users on a user engagement platform drives massive performance costs. In the example above, a single action by one person requires the server to respond to 100,000 simultaneous users with the updated data.
As a consequence, when a commenting platform increases in users, the cost not only increases because of that one user, the cost increases because the servers need to respond to all the simultaneous users. Using CTH as an example, 10,000 to 15,000 simultaneous commenting system users, engaging with the servers, costs around $4,500/mo.
This is why most websites, even big media websites, do not have proprietary user engagement, i.e. commenting systems. Instead, most websites use third party providers like Disqus who run the commenting systems on their own servers. Their commenting systems are plugged in to the website; that defers the cost from the website operator, and the third party can function as a business by selling ads and controlling the user experience. [It also sucks because user privacy is non existent]
The key to understanding the Twitter dynamic is to see the difference between, (a) running a website, where it doesn’t really matter how many people come to look at the content (low server costs), and (b) running a user engagement system, where the costs to accommodate the data processing -which increase exponentially with a higher number of simultaneous users- are extremely expensive. Twitter’s entire platform is based on the latter.
There is no economy of scale in any simultaneous user engagement system. Every added user costs exponentially more in data-processing demand, because every user needs a response, and every simultaneous user (follower) requires the same simultaneous response. A Twitter user with 100 followers (simultaneously logged in) that takes an action – costs less than a Twitter user with 100,000 followers (simultaneously logged in), that takes an action.
If you understand the cost increases in the data demand for simultaneous users, you can see the business model for Twitter is non-existent.
Bottom line, more users means it costs Twitter more money to operate. The business model is backwards from traditional business. More customers = higher costs, because each customer brings more simultaneous users….. which means exponentially more data performance is needed.
User engagement features on Twitter are significant, because that’s all Twitter does. Not only can users write comments, graphics, memes, videos, but they can also like comments, retweet comments, subtweet comments, bookmark comments, and participate in DM systems. That is a massive amount of server/data performance demand, and when you consider simultaneous users, it’s almost unimaginable in scale. That cost and capacity is also the reason why Twitter does not have an edit function.
With 217 million users, you could expect 50 million simultaneous users on Twitter during peak operating times. My back of the envelope calculations, which are really just estimations based on known industry costs for data performance and functions per second, would put the data cost to operate Twitter around at least $1 billion per month (minimum). In 2021, Twitter generated $5.1 billion in revenue, according to the Wall Street Journal.
There is no business model, even with paying subscribers, for Twitter to exist. As the business grows, the costs increase, and the costs to subscribers would grow. So, what is going on?
The only way Twitter, with 217 million users, could exist as a viable platform is if they had access to tech systems of incredible scale and performance, and those systems were essentially free or very cheap. The only entity that could possibly provide that level of capacity and scale is the United States Government – combined with a bottomless bank account.
If my hunch is correct, Elon Musk is poised to expose the well-kept secret that most social media platforms are operating on U.S. government tech infrastructure and indirect subsidy. Let that sink in.
The U.S. technology system, the assembled massive system of connected databases and server networks, is the operating infrastructure that offsets the cost of Twitter to run their own servers and database. The backbone of Twitter is the United States government.
There is simply no way the Fourth Branch of Government, the U.S. intelligence system writ large, is going to permit that discovery.
Social media platforms serve as our virtual town squares. But if they deny us our right to free speech, our democratic republic cannot survive. John Adams said, “A Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty once lost is lost forever.”
Above is a clip from “Studio 22,” a program on the Saudi government-owned television network MBC. The skit portrays US President Biden as mentally incompetent, repeatedly fumbling his words, forgetting names, and falling asleep behind the podium. Biden’s declining mental health is apparent every time that he is permitted to speak publicly. This is how other nations now view the US, as everyone sees there is a puppet at the helm. Biden makes America appear weak on the international stage.
The skit is far from a comedy sketch. Joe Biden has referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as the “First Lady,” as portrayed on the Saudi program. Recently he called Michelle Obama the former vice president and referred to Ukrainians as Iranians. Let us not forget how his “gaffe” nearly caused World War III when he declared that Putin needed to be removed from power. The White House simply retracts his statements and makes excuses for his erratic behavior.
Even with pre-scripted cards, Biden continually forgets the topic at hand and has been filmed repeatedly being redirected by his handlers at various functions. Even Secretary Psaki is jumping ship as she can no longer deflect the truth. The entire world sees the leader of the United States as a complete fool. Yet, he was allegedly the most popular presidential candidate and secured a record number of votes. The Democrats chose the wrong puppet; besides his slim margin of supporters with cognitive dissonance, no one believes that he is leading the nation.
The supply chain issues across the world are continually worsening due to government mismanagement. It seems as if there are sinister intentions at play, as these new restrictions seem to be a deliberate attempt to destroy the global economy.
California’s far-left politicians only implement laws to hurt the people. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) recently revised its Air Resources Board Truck and Bus Regulation:
“The Air Resources Board (ARB) Truck and Bus Regulation requires diesel trucks and buses that operate in California to be upgraded to reduce emissions. By January 1, 2023, nearly all trucks and buses will need to have 2010 model year engines or equivalent. Compliance requirements are currently in effect.”
Therefore, by January, all trucking companies will need to upgrade their trucks to newer models or slim down their fleets. Joe Rajkovacz, director of governmental affairs and communications at the Western States Trucking Association, said that the new law will eliminate 80,000 commercial trucks from operating, accounting for 17% of the trucks in the state. “We in the industry know that if you think there was a supply chain problem over the last year, wait until you take this many trucks out of the marketplace that are not replaceable. You can be talking about something we as a country have never seen before,” he stated.
CARB continues to deny that removing 17% of the trucking fleet will impact the supply chain crisis. “There is simply no evidence to support any claim that the current supply chain issues have any connection to the state’s effort to clean up California’s trucks emissions,” a representative stated.
Trucking companies are pleading for this ruling to be repealed as they simply cannot afford new trucks. Small trucking companies will go under.
Peter Navarro, former manufacturing adviser to former President Donald Trump, called the situation “Woke microeconomics.” Reducing fossil fuels with no other alternative available seems appealing to the far-left. They do not realize that their save the environment plight cannot dismantle the industrial world without repercussions. Woke microeconomics will lead to our downfall.
The wholesale prices in Germany rose at a record pace in March. Compared to the same month the previous year, wholesale prices jumped by 22.6%, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Tuesday in Wiesbaden. This is the highest increase since calculations ever began in 1962. In February, the rate was already high at 16.2%, which has been surpassed here in March. Month-on-month, wholesale prices rose 6.9%, which is yet another record increase.
Our models are pointing to serious trouble ahead for Germany and this poking Russia is all intended as a diversion from the collapse of the European economy that is underway. The negative interest rates since 2014 have wiped out the pension funds and proven that the central bank can no longer control the economy. Add to that, the braindead COVID restrictions which have dealt a serious blow through the heart of the supply chain, and we have a recipe for total economic disaster which is being reflected in the inflation rates which then leads to civil unrest.
I have stated many times, we have the WORST possible crop of world leaders I have ever witnessed in my lifetime. There is not a single character that I would be able to sit down and have an intelligent conversation with. Germany appointing Jenifer Morgan in charge of their environmental policies and the intent was to make her their Secretary of State is just astonishing. What is her role? Tell Putin to turn off his tanks because they create CO2?
These climate zealots have managed to destroy the world economy in just two years. Never in the history of humanity has there EVER been such stupidity from those in power. They should admire their heads in the mirror every day, for if history repeats, they will be dragged from their palaces and their heads might be adorning spikes with cheers of vindication.
It is well known that the first casualty of war is the truth, and nothing sorts out the lies more than troops crossing political borders. Hence, they also say that history is written by the victors. Ever since COVID, we have witnessed a rising trend of civil unrest politicians have been working hard to deliberately create war with Russia all cloaked in their real objective of controlling the planet. Ever since this intended war to poke the Russian Bear, there’s been an acceleration of every conflicting agenda on the world stage. This has crashed the world economy, ended Globalization, and divided the world into US v THEM with the only resolution being armed conflict. Our World Leaders need a war with Russia and then will turn on China as they think threatening China with sanctions will prevent them from joining Russia against the West. This will fail – China is not that stupid. Blaming the other guy is always the way to war. They need to demonize the enemy to inspire hatred that they use to manipulate war.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance
CNBC commissioned a poll by Hart research and associates, a friendly outfit for the left. Unfortunately, that means CNBC then needed to tell everyone what the results were [Full Poll pdf Here]. That task fell to CNBC’s Steve Liesman; an appropriate name given the task at hand.
The irony doubles when you remember this was the same CNBC pundit who refused to accept the horrible economic data that began surfacing last fall. There was even a public broadcast where Liesman said the BLS statistics had to be wrong, because the results were so horrible. A few months later, and here he is explaining how the country now feels about Joe Biden. WATCH:
(CNBC) – […] The pessimism is clearly dragging on Americans’ opinions of President Joe Biden. In fact, nothing looks to be working in the Biden presidency from the public’s viewpoint.
The president’s approval rating sank to a new low of just 38%, with 53% disapproving. Biden’s -15% net approval rating is measurably worse than his -9% approval in the CNBC December survey. What’s more, his approval rating on the economy dropped for a fourth straight survey to just 35%, with 60% disapproving, putting the president a deep 25 points underwater. (article link)
Yesterday in Iowa, Joe Biden called the Russian military operation in Ukraine a “genocide,” which has a very specific set of legal definitions to it.
When asked if he had seen enough evidence to support that statement Biden responded:
“Yes, I called it genocide. It has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being — being able to be Ukrainian. And the amount — the evidence is mounting. It’s different than it was last week. The — more evidence is coming out of the — literally, the horrible things that the Russians have done in Ukraine. And we’re going to only learn more and more about the devastation. And we’ll let the lawyers decide internationally whether or not it qualifies, but it sure seems that way to me.” (link)
Several ground reports from European journalists indicate the U.S. military is running all of the combat operations inside Ukraine. A French reporter said on Euro News, “I thought I was with the international brigades, and instead I was facing the Pentagon.” Now today, Joe Biden announces he is arbitrarily sending U.S. combat helicopters into the conflict.
(WHITE HOUSE) – I just spoke with President Zelenskyy and shared with him that my Administration is authorizing an additional $800 million in weapons, ammunition, and other security assistance to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian military has used the weapons we are providing to devastating effect. As Russia prepares to intensify its attack in the Donbas region, the United States will continue to provide Ukraine with the capabilities to defend itself.
This new package of assistance will contain many of the highly effective weapons systems we have already provided and new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine. These new capabilities include artillery systems, artillery rounds, and armored personnel carriers. I have also approved the transfer of additional helicopters. In addition, we continue to facilitate the transfer of significant capabilities from our Allies and partners around the world.
The steady supply of weapons the United States and its Allies and partners have provided to Ukraine has been critical in sustaining its fight against the Russian invasion. It has helped ensure that Putin failed in his initial war aims to conquer and control Ukraine. We cannot rest now. As I assured President Zelenskyy, the American people will continue to stand with the brave Ukrainian people in their fight for freedom. (link)
.
The Biden administration is all-in for this Ukraine proxy war, taking all actions to highlight a zero-sum position.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here. All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.
The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose. They did not make a mistake. The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates. It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees. WATCH:
The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year. The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working. They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else. Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year. By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.
So that’s why they waited. But here’s the worse part….
All of these U.S. Fed monetary policymakers are in full ideological alignment with the global and central bankers. They are all following the same Build Back Better agenda and policy instructions.
All of bankers know the shift from ‘dirty energy’, coal, oil, natural gas, will create inflation. All of the bankers know there is no economic bridge within the plan to shift from oil to their unicorn dust. All of the bankers know that shutting down oil exploration as a matter of western unified policy will, as a factual matter, destroy the economic systems that rely on energy….. which is to say everything.
All of these bankers know the severity of the inflation crisis this energy shift creates. None of them do not know.
Everything they are doing is coordinated to assist the climate change agenda.
That’s what this is all about.
Everything is politically motivated.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
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