Category End of the era of the Dollar

Apr 19 2023

The Great Divide


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Apr 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Any company that is adopting WOKE should be out of business for what they are really doing is dividing the country and completing what our computer has forecast – the breakup of the United States. The WOKE Agenda is attacking the religious beliefs of many and that historically always leads to division, discrimination, and often outright war.

When a company endorses what they think is some political agenda, it will lose the business from the opposition. This whole thing about transgender is out of control. Instead of eliminating discrimination, they are creating it. People will then blame the transgender movement for all sorts of things as they have done to Jews, Catholics, Muslims, and Protestants. There is no solution here. By endorsing WOKE, they are undermining the religious beliefs of others. You end up creating disunity – not unity.

Companies should NEVER take sides in politics especially when they attack religious beliefs. It is one thing to lobby for your business against some regulation. But endorsing this WOKE agenda is part of the Great Divide that is clearly a major factor contributing to the demise of the United States by dividing the people between blue and red. Abortion already offends many religious beliefs. Then there is taxation and war. This WOKE Agenda will be one of the factors historians will look back on for breaking up the United States.

During the Hard Times that followed the Panic of 1837, there was discrimination against the Irish Catholics for taking jobs when they migrated to the States. That led to even gun battles on the street. Just as Germany singled out the Jews, any time you single out any group, you divide your society, undermining the state’s foundation.

We are all equal or we are not. When we are, great civilizations are formed. When Philadelphia was founded by William Penn, a Quaker, it was on the principle of religious freedom. The first Catholic Church was erected there along with the first churches of just about every denomination. The whole slavery issue and the Civil War also involved religion.

This WOKE Agenda is extremely dangerous because it attacks the religious beliefs of many. Besides the American Civil War with its roots in religion, the same was true of the English Civil War which was Protestant v Catholic. India & Pakistan separated over religion – Buddhist v Islam. The Protestant Revolution was actually funded by Catholic bankers who wanted to compete with the Jews but could not get into the trade since lending money for interest was the Sin of Usury.

Arnaud Amalric (died 1225) was a very prominent abbot in the Albigensian Crusade (1209–1229), also known as the Cathar Crusade. They were persecuted because they believed in two Gods or philosophies, with the first one being good and the second being evil. It was during this religious war, which was covertly really for French political gain, that the monk Amalric is best remembered for allegedly advising a soldier who was worried about killing orthodox Catholics in the process of killing declared Cathar heretics. He said:

 “NovitenimDominusquisunteius.” (“Kill them. For the Lord knows those that are His own.”)

The historical list goes on and on. The number of wars and civil uprisings that offended religious beliefs are countless. This WOKE Agenda is NOT about discrimination, it is an agenda that undermines the state and will lead to the breakup of the United States precisely as our computer has forecast.

This WOKE Agenda has prompted more than just a boycott of BUD. It has produced Woke Free American Beer. I’m not a beer drinker, I prefer Scotch. So I cannot speak to how it compares to Bud. But you can try it yourself to make that decision at Ultrarightbeer.com.

This is what I mean. This is not really an economic right-wing thing, it has its roots in religious beliefs. A friend from Europe came and we went down to Key West which is a major hangout for the Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender crowd (LGBT/LGBQT). We saw a guy who could have been a linebacker in high heels with a black mini-skirt standing on the corner and people were taking pictures with him. He was obviously making serious cash. He was certainly not very feminine looking and with the heels, he stood over 7ft. Nobody was insulting him, they were lining up to have their photo taken with him.

This Woke Free American Beer commercial starts with Seth Weathers standing outside of a women’s bathroom and saying, “America has been drinking beer from a company that doesn’t even know which restroom to use.”

Welcome to the Great Divide

The time is quickly approaching when we will turn out the light on this American Experiment 

2034?

Apr 14 2023

Only 32% of Lenders Profited on Mortgages in 2022


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Apr 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The talking heads have been warning of a housing crash, but that is not what Socrates indicated. The 30-year fixed rate is around 6.89% at the time of this writing. Housing costs continue to rise, causing the costs of servicing mortgage debt to rise. Housing inventory is limited, and a recent report explains why we saw mass layoffs in the banking sector. The demand is still there and it is a sellers’ market. Cash is king when it comes to real estate for those who can afford it. Mortgage lenders are in trouble. In fact, only 32% of mortgage companies were profitable in 2022 compared to 98% in 2020.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently announced that independent mortgage banks and subsidiaries of chartered banks lost around $301 for every mortgage they financed in 2022. This marks a 113% decline from the prior year’s average and the first-time banks are seeing losses on mortgage products. This is not 2008 when banks handed out loans to anyone who asked.

“The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time, combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges, meant that both purchase and refinance volume plummeted,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, lower revenues, and higher costs per loan.” Production costs reached a high of $10,624 per loan last year. Productivity was 1.5 loans originations per production employee, down from 2.5 per employee the year prior, and an indicator of why we are seeing layoffs in the banking sector. No one is refinancing at these rates either and most chose a fixed rate, as we saw what happened in 2008 with adjustable costs.

First-time mortgages reached an all-time high of $323,780 last year, up from $298,324, the largest annual increase since the MBA began collecting data. The increased cost of loans increased the cost of serving mortgages. The MBA expects volume to decline further in 2023 before rallying in 2024 and 2025. The banking crisis may lead to banks and lenders selling off their mortgage debts once they cannot afford to service the debt. Again, the housing crisis today is not relative to the 2008 crash.

Apr 13 2023

The Dollar Sophistry


Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-P osted Apr 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Dear Martin Armstrong,
Thank you for your unwavering support of humanity and truth. The question I have is about the growing number of countries seeking to divorce themselves from the USD in favor of the alternate BRICS system. Yet when I try to make sense of the current Secured Dollar Funding Complex involving Cash Lenders, Fixed Income and Repo Clearing Banks, Commercial Paper, CD’s, Syndicated and Interbank Loans, Wholesale, Retail and Corporate Deposits, Corporate & Sovereign Bonds, etc. How likely is the world to cleanly disconnect from this entangled web and over what anticipated time frame, rapidly or a long drawn out affair?
Sincerely,

Roy

QUESTION #2: Marty, is all this sudden talk about dethroning the US dollar coming just when April was a major target for the Euro bounce?

HJ

COMMENT #3: You have always said when China starts selling dollars, it is time for war. It looks like they are right on schedule.

Pete

ANSWER: All of this talk of dethroning the dollar is right on time. Yes, April was the target and we should be very careful here for this April/May period is critical on a global basis. As for the BRICS displacing the dollar in the trade as so many are saying, this only PROVES they are just putting out biased claims being anti-dollar with pure sophistry. This reveals that they do not understand anything about the economy, trade, or international finance.

Yes, the Euro elected a Monthly Bullish Reversal (Buy Signal). However, it MUST exceed 11100 on a monthly closing basis to suggest the euro can advance further on a sustained basis. If the Euro exceeds intraday the February high, then a monthly closing below 108 would warn we may be looking at the war and the flight to the dollar would unfold. I would expect that capital controls would be introduced by the end of the year.

First of all, the very reason they created the Euro was to end FX risk and to create a single market. If the BRICS create a competitive currency, then they are introducing FX Risk and that will REDUCE trade with the United States. If the dollar declines, then they will suffer a loss of trade. What makes the US dollar the reserve currency is the fact that the US is the largest consumer-based economy that everyone wants to sell to. I find it laughable how these people pretend to understand finance but are ignorant in reality offering nothing but sophistry.

They can create whatever currency they desire, but they cannot force the FX risk on their buyers. I helped to reorganize the Japanese auto industry where they priced their cars in dollars to the States and took back the FX Risk to be managed. They beat the Germans who were pricing their cars in DMarks during the 70s and soon their sales were declining to the Japanese. I was then later called in by German companies to teach them about FX Risk. and market share. Creating some new reserve currency is pointless if they put the FX risk on their customers.

As far as China, I cannot believe how the bias has skewed the analysis. People are actually saying they are selling dollars because the dollar will be dethroned. China has been dependent on the US economy to make money. They would NEVER sell dollars to simply dethrone the reserve status of the dollar. They are selling dollars because YOU DO NOT FUND your enemy. We are headed into war. They know that. This is all geopolitical and those who just hate the dollar are going to get sucker punched because they are missing what is really going on here.

They have been buying gold NOT because they are bullish – but because they must sell US bonds for in times of war the US will just default on all bonds held by China. I think it is time to get your head out of the sand and open your eyes. This is not about dollars and gold. This is about preparing for World War III.

Apr 13 2023

Inflation Plateau Continues During March, Real Wages Shrink Again, Future Energy Costs Start to Rise Again with Oil


Posted originally on the CTH on April 12, 2023 | Sundance

In the latest round of statistics from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) the March inflation data has been released [DATA HERE]. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.1% in March after advancing 0.4% in February.  This puts the 12-month CPI outlook at 5% inflation. [See Modified Table A on Left]

A 4.6% decline in March gasoline prices was offset by higher rental and housing costs.  That was the primary driver of the lowered inflationary data as gasoline is weighted heavier in the impact.

However, that said, gasoline prices are already rising again after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers early this month announced further oil output cuts.  This puts the April CPI data (starting to be assembled this week) on track to increase over March.

Overall, in the big picture the data shows the plateau of sorts as we described for this spring.  This plateau will be followed by another bump as a result of current input costs and prior energy costs traveling through the supply chain.

Energy services, electricity and natural gas, are stable but higher than last year.  The crop cycles carry those increased costs from field to fork.  Consumers cannot avoid those food prices increasing.  The more processing involved in the food sector, the higher the price increase.

Housing increases are another unavoidable cost and generally cycle with a lag within them.  As leases expire, the new lease rates increase accordingly.  The same is true for insurance rates.  Both unavoidable sectors have a rolling lag that hits the consumer upon renewal.

On the wage side [DATA HERE] wages went up .03% but the work week declined 0.3%.  Essentially nullifying earnings growth with fewer worked hours.  With inflation at 0.1%, real wages declined .01%.

For the total 12-month cycle noted by the BLS data, “real average hourly earnings decreased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, from March 2022 to March 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.6-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” For the year, wages continue to fall far short of inflation; meaning real wages are negative.  Actual real wage growth has been negative for 24 consecutive months.

The main street economy is feeling all of these impacts.  The paper economy (Wall St) is not feeling these impacts at the same level.  The chasm between the haves and have-nots is widening.

Apr 6 2023

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Ramification of Trillions in U.S. Treasury Bonds No Longer Needed as Global Securities


Posted originally on the CTH on April 5, 2023 Sundance

For his opening monologue and first interview tonight, Fox News host Tucker Carlson outlined the ramification of non-western nations now trading in alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar.   {Direct Rumble Link Here]  As the dollar diminishes in value, and as an outcome of Biden using U.S. treasury bonds as part of the sanction regime against Russia, various non-western nations now perceive holding dollars as exposing themselves to risk.

Carlson is joined by Luke Gromen who accurately notes the dollar as a global trade currency may continue, but foreign nations holding U.S. treasury bonds as an asset will likely start contracting.  The result of U.S. treasury bonds returning after maturity with no repurchase, would be an inability of the U.S. to borrow against their sale. This could, perhaps likely will, severely diminish the amount of money the U.S. congress can spend.  WATCH:

None of this should come as a surprise to those who have paid attention. Factually, in March of last year, one month after the Russian sanctions were announced, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Deputy Managing Director said the sanctions against Russia are likely to undermine the US dollar’s global dominance as a trade currency.  Everyone could see this coming.

(Inside Paper) – March 2022 – […] “The dollar would remain the major global currency even in that landscape, but fragmentation at a smaller level is certainly quite possible,” Gopinath said in an interview with the Financial Times.  She went on to say that some countries have already begun to renegotiate the currency in which they are paid for trade.

According to Gopinath, the drastic restrictions imposed by Western countries in response to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine may result in the formation of small currency blocs based on trade between individual groups of countries.  Furthermore, the use of currencies other than the dollar or the euro in global trade would result in a further diversification of central banks’ reserve assets. (read more)

The efforts of NATO and the western alliance to crush the Russian currency have failed.  The Russian ruble currency has jumped back from the sanctions and is now even stronger than before the sanctions were put into place.

With China and India supporting ongoing trade with Russia, and with Saudi Arabia responding coldly to the U.S. working on a deal with Iran for nuclear weapons, the geopolitical strategy of NATO, G7 and the proverbial western alliance increasingly looks like it will backfire.

Yellow Team -vs- Gray Team: Remember, China just brokered a deal to lessen hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The fulcrum of that agreement was economics.

Meanwhile in North America, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador has said he was not willing to join the energy suicide pact pushed by Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau…. A policy break in the trilateral relationship which suddenly, and not coincidentally, aligns with the timing to make Mexico a pariah to the U.S. vis-a-vis a renewed media push on the drug cartel narrative.

BIG PICTURE NOT BEING DISCUSSED – The western politicians followed the climate change instructions of the WEF multinational corporations and banks (Build Back Better) and post-pandemic immediately started reducing energy development. The central bankers then began raising interest rates to shrink the economies of the same western nations to the scale of the now diminished energy production.

The raising of interest rates is now hitting the national and multinational banks impacted by government policy that was following WEF orders. Now the western politicians are stepping in with the government controlled central banks to backstop the national banks and multinationals. Can you see the dynamic?

Team yellow is suffering the consequences of their own ideological policy as enacted. Team grey is not going to help team yellow get out of a crisis team yellow created, which was intended to hurt team grey.

…. And we continue watching.

Apr 4 2023

The End of the Petrodollar?


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Apr 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Another oil deal has been initiated without the use of the dollar. The India Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced that their latest trade deal with Malaysia would be settled in Indian rupees. “This initiative by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aimed at facilitating the growth of global trade and to support the interests of the global trading community in Indian Rupees (INR),” the formal statement noted.

Indian has benefitted from the West’s distraction from the Ukraine war. The RBI is allowing 18 counties to open Vostro accounts and has been attracting new deals in trade and manufacturing. New Delhi and Moscow have strengthened their relationship as India is not imposing sanctions.  The Indian Commerce Ministry said its five-year plan is to “encourage” the use of the rupee on an international scale, while also planning to expand exports $2 trillion by 2030. Trading in rupees will also allow India to save on conversion spreads and limit the country’s dependence on the volatile dollar.

The BRICs treaty (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) remains strong and oil giants Saudi Arabia and Iran would like to join the partnership. The Saudis stated at the beginning of the year that they were open to settling trade in currencies other than the USD. “There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Al-Jadaan said during Davos. As we have seen in recent months, Saudi Arabia is aligning itself with China over the US.

The Vietnam war and other government missteps made it impossible for the US to maintain the fixed price of gold established under Bretton Woods. The USD relative to gold fell as the supply of dollars grew, pushing Nixon to abandon the Bretton Woods system entirely. US government debt was rapidly rising as confidence in the dollar plummeted. America needed an enticing way to sell its debt, and that was when Nixon convinced Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, to purchase Treasurys in dollars in exchange for military aid. Hence the “petrodollar” was born. The creation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) only further enhanced the dollar’s dominance in energy purchases.

Here we are yet again amid another war and a high budget deficit. The Saudis no longer need protection from America, and siding with Western interests would be a deterrent to its international deals with countries in the BRICs alliance and some in the OPEC+. Despite the green agenda, the world cannot operate without oil. The major oil exporters are now aligning and cutting out the US as their middleman.

Apr 4 2023

Masks Now Embedded in Japanese Culture


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Apr 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Comment: You know, mask wearing in japan was officially ended 5 weeks ago. And there has been no change of practice whatsoever. Mask wearing continues at close to 100pct.

Especially among young people mask wearing seems to be here to stay, possibly forever. Somewhere a psychologist will write a book about this phenomenon. Never in my life could I have imagine that the great nation of japan would adopt this practice like people wearing shoes. People driving in their cars on their own are wearing masks for god Sake. Mask wearing is now the primary method of signaling that the wearer is careful, thoughtful and considerate of others.

Reply: The pandemic will go down as the greatest mass social experiment in history. Face masks have become an everyday essential item for most Japanese. Implementing the face mask mandate was seamless in Japan as masks for allergies and disease were already commonplace. Mask sales rose during flu outbreaks years before COVID, especially in high-density cities. Some people wore masks as a fashion accessory or to limit approachability in social interactions. A 2011 poll from News Post Seven found that 30% of those who wore masks did not cite health concerns.

It took three years, but the Japanese government no longer mandates masks. Yet, it has become embedded in the culture. The Japanese culture values respecting one’s community. The government has never admitted that masks did not prevent the spread of COVID in a meaningful way. Instead, politicians continue to wear masks at public appearances, and the prime minister is encouraging people to continue wearing masks around vulnerable individuals. “We are not forcing anyone to wear it or take it off,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters after the mandate ended. “I think there will be more occasions when I will take my mask off.” It is now seen as a respectful gesture for one’s neighbor.

Research institute Laibo conducted a study in February to determine why people are choosing to stay masked. Only 5.5% of 561 respondents said they would not wear a mask. Over half (50.2%) said that wearing a mask simply became a habit, while most (53.4%) said they are still afraid of catching the coronavirus. About 27.8% of respondents said they will wear their masks “unconditionally.”

Masks may have become a cultural norm in Japan. Everyone should have the ability to act on their own free will, but I suspect many feel the need to conform. The studies citing the ineffectiveness of mask usage have been swept under the rug. As the original commenter stated, masks now signal that the wearer is considerate of others. If only the government would come out and let the people know it is safe for both them and their neighbors to breathe in the air.

Apr 3 2023

What Survives the Collapse of a Government’s Currency?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Apr 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

I know a lot of goldbugs hate my guts because I do not constantly only say BUY and I point out that NOT only gold and silver survive the collapse of a currency.

I once had a German client who was a multimillionaire back in the 1970s. When the German government collapsed, he was buying all the old coins that were base metals for scrap. They were nickel and copper and some aluminum.  It was presumed that they were all then worthless.

The new government could issue the paper money, but they lacked the metal to strike a whole new coinage. They then announced that the old coinage would retain a value as fractions of the new currency. He became a multimillionaire overnight. I use to enjoy his stories of the transition since he lived through it there in Germany.

His stories of living through such monetary reforms helped me understand the mechanism behind such events. As I have explained, even in times of geopolitical stress, that is the period when we find the greatest number of hoards of even ancient coins.

Just like the stock market, gold has risen and fallen in value. The propaganda about Bitcoin was the same nonsense – the hedge against central banks and a “store of value” when it is simply no different from anything else that trades – it moves up and down. There is NO STORE OF VALUE in human history. Everything rises and falls. That was what Karl Marx was trying to stop – the Business Cycle of booms and busts.

Sorry, I am not a Marxist. There is a cycle to everything and that means that there is a TIME to BUY and a TIME to SELL. The stock brokers in the Great Depression told people to hold. The market always comes back. Others told them to average in. It took 25 years for the stock market to reach the old 1929 high (it exceed the 1929 high in 1954 on the Dow).

I buy gold but in coin form. The one consistent form of value historically has is generally been food if you go that far down the rabbit hole. However, a loaf of bread from 1930 will not do you much good today despite the fact it was just 12 cents back then. Now that was an investment if it would survive 100 years.

Precious Metals will do well, but I would prefer them in coin form. You may know what they are, but it is the other person who has to know before it has any value. That average person must be able to identify that it is real. That will be your problem. You won’t get change for a cup of coffee with a kilo bar of gold.

I have suggested the pre-1965 silver coins for small transactions. But real estate, art, ancient coins, antique cars, rare coins, and the stock market will all have some value being redenominated into whatever new currency emerges and that will depend on the government. The German stock market rose with hyperinflation and was re-denominated in the new currency in 1925. Like most other markets, it rallied and peaked going into 1929. So I’m sorry if the truth hurts. But the stock market will NOT go to ZERO and only gold will rise if the dollar crashes. There is no such period in history that hints at such nonsense. This is propaganda made up by those trying to sell gold and will say anything just like a used car salesman.

No matter what the tangible object might be,

it will rise and fall with the business cycle. It always has, and it always will.