Posted originally on Mar 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Martin, I just had to commend you on your capital flow models. Anyone who does not acknowledge that is a fraud and not trustworthy. As your clip showed from 1991, everyone knew you invented that analysis. While others claim that capital is fleeing from the United States to Europe, they are fake news and inaccurate analysts. They do not understand how things work. You are correct about European intimidation to bringing cash and investments home. However, that is only among the regulated institutions that can be threatened. As your computer tracks, capital is being withdrawn globally in preparation for war.
We could not make decisions in our boardroom without consulting Socrates anymore. It is unbiased and that is the most valuable asset in times of such uncertainty.
God bless.
EKL
REPLY: Yes, you are correct. We are watching capital contracting into both the United States and Europe. It is even leaving Canada and Mexico. When Claudia Sheinbaum, a leftist, became president on Oct. 1, the first woman to ever govern Mexico, many had their doubts about how she would handle the relationship with the United States, especially if Trump won the election. She has stood up top some calling to enter Mexico and destroy the drug cartels. She opposes that idea, but some believe that there could be a war with Mexico over the drug issue. We see the capital fleeing Mexico based on those rumors right now.
In Canada, there is both capital fleeing and Canadians. This newly unelected PM Carney is only talking about RESIST while he distracts the people from the economic issues. So, exactly what does “resist” mean? More tariffs? Some politicians are claiming Trump will annex Canada. That is simply impossible under US or International law. Economically, this does not bode well for the future.
Posted originally on Mar 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: You say you do not advise Trump. But whatever you seem to project, he does. Others seem to be copying your forecasts, even debt ad ___ suddenly says the default comes when you can’t sell the debt. Interestingly, they do not have the historical examples or the database that you do. So, how does this work? Are you the source for everyone?
PD
REPLY: I do not advise Trump. Yes, many near him take our reports. I know many take our research and pretend it is their own. Impressive, they do not have the staff to back up even collecting such a database. That is life. Even President Biden was said to have plagiarized people to climb the ladder of success. Just ask them for the historical facts to back up what they pretend is theirs. People can search for things fast these days to see the author of anything.
Only with a database was it possible to see capital flows. Even the CIA admitted to me that I invited that. Sovereign Debt defaults, who, when, how, and why, all came from analysis of ancient to medieval economies. It cost me tens of millions of dollars to assemble the coinage to see what was NOT recorded by historians definitively.
Over the years, I have bought hoards of ancient coins just to see snapshots of what was in circulation and when. I have even helped to rewrite history with coinage that is not opinion. Even the extent of Mark Antony’s coinage funded by Cleopatra was still the most common coinage discovered in a hoard buried 100 years later in Pampei. It is a joke that someone can stand up pretending something is their research without the database or even the staff.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, Happy Pi Day. I think it was inevitable that you would discover the relationship between Pi and the economy and the markets. I found it to be fate since you grew up at 314 South Lippincott Avenue.
JF
REPLY: Perhaps it was fate. That was an extraordinary coincidence. I never thought about that until it was pointed out to me years later.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT from Italy: Dear Mr Armstrong,
I just read your topic on volcanoes and cooling weather Please note:
Etna is erupting, slowly Stromboli had a small eruption last year with earthquake On 13march on Campi Flegrei, “caldara” where Vesuvio is Located, had an earthquake of magnitudo 4.1
Thus it seems all italian volcanoes have signs of “life”…: Etna, Stromboli, Vesuvio, Vulcano
Campi Flegrei: il terremoto del 13 marzo 2025 (Md 4.4) e il punto sul bradisismo
Alle ore 01:25 italiane di ieri, 13/03/2025, la Sala di Monitoraggio dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano – INGV ha localizzato un evento sismico di magnitudo preliminare Md 4.4±0.3, nell’area dei Campi Flegrei, lungo la costa del Golfo di Pozzuoli (La Pietra – Dazio) e molto vicino al popoloso quartiere di Bagnoli (Figura 1).
Figura 1 – Mappa della sismicità dei Campi Flegrei tra il 6 marzo e il 13 marzo 2025: sono riportati solo i terremoti di magnitudo M ≥ 1.0. La dimensione dei simboli è proporzionale alla magnitudo, come indicato nel riquadro in basso a destra. La stella e il cerchio turchese indicano l’evento di Md 4.4 del 13 marzo 2025.
Il terremoto che ha fatto vibrare l’intera area metropolitana dei Campi Flegrei e molti quartieri della città di Napoli è avvenuto ad una profondità di circa 2.5 km. Da quel momento è iniziato uno sciame sismico, conclusosi nella notte tra il 13 e il 14 marzo, con un totale di 44 eventi con magnitudo ≥ 0 di cui solo 9 con magnitudo Md tra 1.0 e 1.7.
Come già riportato in molte altre occasioni, la sismicità dell’area dei Campi Flegrei è strettamente correlata alla dinamica vulcanica e in particolare alle fasi di deformazione e sollevamento del suolo (parte del fenomeno noto come bradisismo). L’attuale crisi bradisismica, iniziata nel 2005, ha finora prodotto un sollevamento massimo di circa 140 cm nell’area centrale della caldera, misurato in una piccola area a 500 metri a sud del Rione Terra (Pozzuoli).
Nel passato si sono verificate altre fasi di sollevamento del suolo accompagnate da sismicità, le più recenti delle quali nei periodi 1969-1972 e 1982-1984. I terremoti di maggiore energia nel corso di quelle crisi furono registrati il 4 ottobre 1983 e il 14 marzo 1984 entrambi con una magnitudo Md pari a 4.0. E vale la pena ricordare che la seconda fu caratterizzata da una sismicità talmente intensa da provocare gravi danni agli edifici di Pozzuoli ed una parziale evacuazione dei suoi abitanti.
Durante l’attuale crisi bradisismica, i maggiori eventi sismici sono stati registrati il 27 settembre 2023 (Md 4.2), il 2 ottobre 2023 (Md 4.0), il 20 maggio 2024 (Md 4.4) e il 26 luglio 2024 (Md 4.0), le cui localizzazioni sono mostrate in Figura 2, insieme con quelle degli eventi di magnitudo M ≥ 3.0, a partire dal 1983. Occorre sottolineare che seppure negli ultimi 10 anni sia stato osservato un aumento del numero e dell’energia degli eventi registrati, essi mostrano in grandissima parte (circa il 97%), una magnitudo ≤ 1.0.
Figura 2 – Mappa degli epicentri localizzati dalla Rete Sismica dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano dal 1983 ad oggi, incluso l’evento del 13 marzo 2025 (stella turchese), relativa ai terremoti di magnitudo M ≥ 3.0. A destra della mappa, le proiezioni degli ipocentri orientate nord-sud; in basso, orientate est-ovest (il cerchio turchese indica l’evento di Md 4.4 del 13 marzo 2025. La dimensione dei simboli è proporzionale alla magnitudo, come indicato nel riquadro in basso a destra.
La situazione attuale (febbraio – marzo 2025)
Nelle ultime tre settimane, la velocità media di sollevamento del suolo nella zona di massima deformazione in prossimità del Rione Terra a Pozzuoli, si è attestata intorno ad un valore preliminare di ~30±5 mm/mese (come indicato nel bollettino settimanale dei Campi Flegrei, 3-9 marzo 2025). Un esame dei dati presenti nel Bollettino mensile di febbraio evidenzia che: a) nei mesi precedenti, da agosto 2024, la stessa zona, al centro della caldera, aveva mostrato un tasso di sollevamento medio di ~10 mm/mese; b) solo durante la seconda metà di febbraio 2025 tale valore era salito a ~15±5 mm/mese (Figura 3).
Figura 3 – (a) Serie temporale delle variazioni in quota della stazione GNSS della stazione del Rione Terra, Pozzuoli (RITE) dal 01/01/2024 al 10/03/2025; (b) Variazione di lunghezza della baseline SOLO-ARFE (Solfatara – Arco Felice) dal 01/01/2024 al 10/03/2025.
Nel quadro generale in cui deformazioni e sismicità ai Campi Flegrei continuano a essere strettamente associate, il terremoto di magnitudo Md 4.4 di ieri si inserisce in un contesto di tasso di sollevamento in rapido aumento che invece non era stato rilevato in occasione dell’evento di pari magnitudo del 20 maggio 2024. Quell’evento era infatti avvenuto in condizioni di deformazione progressiva e continua, a testimonianza del fatto che non c’è relazione diretta tra velocità di sollevamento del suolo e magnitudo e che, se fosse necessario ribadirlo, non è possibile stabilire né quando i terremoti arrivano né quale intensità avranno.
Grazie alla recente implementazione e al completamento di una rete accelerometrica, che comprende sia stazioni a terra sia stazioni installate sul fondo del Golfo di Pozzuoli, da alcuni mesi e in occasione di eventi sismici rilevanti, si pubblicano mappe di scuotimento che riportano i valori delle accelerazioni del suolo, espresse in percentuale dell’accelerazione di gravità. Tali mappe sono prodotte per diverse zone dell’area flegrea e ne è stata realizzata una per l’evento di magnitudo Md 4.4 di ieri (Figura 4), su cui si osservano valori di accelerazione molto alti, tra 0.6 e 1 g (dove g è l’accelerazione di gravità), soprattutto verso il bordo della Solfatara e Pozzuoli, verso mare e verso est, in direzione della collina di Posillipo e della città di Napoli.
Pur con taluni caratteri di direzionalità, il terremoto di ieri è stato risentito in una vasta area che va da Bacoli a ovest fino ai quartieri orientali di Napoli in prossimità dell’area vesuviana, e in vari Comuni presenti nei quadranti NE-N-NW dell’area napoletana, fino a Giugliano e Marano. Lo si evince con una certa facilità dalla mappa dei risentimenti ottenuta grazie ai dati raccolti attraverso i questionari di “Hai sentito il terremoto?” che mostrano risentimenti stimati, al momento, fino al V grado MCS (Figura 5).
Figura 5 – Mappa dei risentimenti ottenuta grazie ai dati raccolti attraverso i questionari di “Hai sentito il terremoto?”, aggiornamento del 14/03/2025.
Eruzione imminente?
Sebbene da molti mesi si continuano a registrare variazioni fluttuanti e variabili, ma sostenute, di alcuni parametri quali la velocità di deformazione del suolo e l’emissione di CO2, gli altri parametri rilevati dal sistema di monitoraggio dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano-INGV nel suo complesso, non mostrano al momento evidenze dell’imminenza di una eruzione vulcanica, soprattutto alla luce di un’analisi di tutti i parametri geofisici e geochimici nel loro complesso. Non ci sono, ad esempio, segnali sismici che indichino il movimento di magma verso la superficie né anomalie geofisiche e geochimiche tali da indicare una perturbazione del sistema idrotermale. Gli scenari che possiamo aspettarci nel breve termine vanno, quindi, inseriti nel quadro geofisico che la caldera dei Campi Flegrei mette in luce da tempo: la sismicità proseguirà fin quando sarà in atto il sollevamento del suolo e i terremoti di energia confrontabile con quella del terremoto odierno, o di poco superiore, saranno ancora possibili. Restano possibili una intensificazione della crisi bradisismica come pure una sua diminuzione, con un passaggio da sollevamento a subsidenza (così come avvenuto nelle crisi del secolo scorso).
Cosa sta facendo l’Osservatorio Vesuviano in queste ore?
Nonostante l’evento sismico sia avvenuto a soli 2.5 km in linea d’aria dalla sede dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano, con inevitabile coinvolgimento anche del personale di turno nella notte, l’intera procedura organizzativa che garantisce le comunicazioni previste verso gli organi di Protezione Civile, nei suoi vari livelli, e verso la popolazione, si è svolta secondo gli standard previsti. Inoltre, nelle settimane passate, così come nei giorni che hanno preceduto l’evento sismico della scorsa notte, i vari gruppi di ricercatori dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano con compiti di monitoraggio hanno intensificato le campagne di misura di tutti i parametri fisici e chimici utili alla definizione del fenomeno in atto.
REPLY: Yes, there is an extraordinary number of volcanoes starting to come alive. Campi Flegrei is a serious supervolcano.
We will input all the recent activity and see what the computer comes up with.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates is just amazing. You have been correlating agriculture and climate as volcanoes that produce major global cooling events. Well, just an observation: Many volcanos are becoming active or erupting simultaneously. Do you see a volcanic winter in the cards?
Sam
ANSWER: There is about a 309.6-year cycle to the big ones that result in volcanic winters. However, that begins with the 43BC eruption Okmok II in Alaska. There is a lack of data that prevents an accurate forecast of such events. However, if we look at just recent recorded events from the 1257 eruption of Samalas volcano on Lombok Island, Indonesia, there appear to be events of this nature on the half-cycle so about 154 years or so. This event of 1257 is now recognized as one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the Holocene epoch.
We have three main sources: Ice Core Data: Sulfate spikes in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica date to around 1257–1258. Tree rings from 1258–1260 in regions like Europe and North America suggest prolonged cooling and reduced growing seasons. Historical Records from Medieval chronicles, both from Europe and Asia, describe extreme weather in 1258–1259, including unseasonable cold, heavy rains, crop failures, and famines. The English records recorded this as the “year of famine” with widespread starvation. Interestingly, this is why our database on Wheat began in 1259. Because of this crisis, people started to record prices.
This is why I have warned about simultaneous eruptions. There was also a smaller eruption around 1227 (traced to another tropical volcano) may have compounded cooling effects earlier in the century. Thus, this major event may have magnified the volcanic winter.
A giant volcano in Alaska is showing signs of an impending eruption. Significantly elevated levels of volcanic gas emissions were recently observed around Mount Spurr, which is located 75 miles from Anchorage and is home to nearly 300,000 people. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) said the emissions ‘confirm’ that new magma is flowing beneath the volcano, indicating a foreseeable eruption.
Small earthquakes were detected at Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, and Mount Hood during the past week. These are the Cascade Range. We did have the “Volcan de Fuego,” or Volcano of Fire, blowing a thick ash cloud, seen from Palin, Guatemala, on Monday, March 10, 2025. This is more of my concern. Numerous volcanoes can have an accumulative effect.
I can say that a low in 2025 points to higher prices ahead.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Americans are more likely to support Israel amid the Middle East conflict, but support is waning. A Gallup poll found that 46% of Americans feel sympathy toward Israel, marking the lowest support in Gallup’s 25 years of tracking.
Around 33% of Americans reportedly sympathize with Palestine, a six percentage point rise from 2024 and the highest reading on file. Democrats are far more likely (45% v 18%) to sympathize with Palestine over Israel compared to Republicans. This shift for the Democrats occurred in 2022, as prior to that there was bipartisan support for Israel.
Around 40% of Americans say they approve of Donald Trump’s handling of the war. Yet, most Americans want to see a two-state solution where Palestine establishes clear national lines. Around 55% of American adults support this measure and want to see an independent Palestine. Republicans are split on the issue, with 41% in favor and 49% in opposition.
Israel has received $12 billion in foreign military sales from the US since January 2025. A $3 billion arms deal was approved on the first of this month, and a $4 billion military assistance package was also approved on the same date. A $8 billion arms package was sent to Israel in February, with the bulk going toward bombs and guidance kits. Israel already received $3.3 billion annually from the Foreign Military Financing grant provided by the US.
America will continue funding Israel indefinitely. Turning Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” will not likely go over well and we will see a massive humanitarian and refugee crisis as millions of Palestinians will be displaced. As the economy turns down, so will America’s overall support of Israel.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
According to the Treasury Department, America’s deficit surpassed the $1 trillion mark this February. The deficit reached $307 billion for the month, marking a 2.5X increase on a monthly basis and 3.7% higher on an annual basis.
The deficit for the first five months of FY25 hit $1.15 trillion, a $318 billion increase (+38%) from the same period last year. America is paying $74 billion simply to finance this debt, with interest payments over the FY rising to $396 billion.
The deficit under the last three years of Biden-Harris grew from $1.38 trillion to $1.83 trillion as the public sector and government spending multiplied. Trump is attempting to make a dent in government spending through DOGE, but he is hitting America’s revenue with these tariffs. Both measures have only just begun and have not made a major impact on the economy yet.
Deficits no longer create economic growth; instead, they now consume it. Each additional dollar of debt generates diminishing returns, meaning the cost of servicing this debt will soon exceed the nation’s ability to function without radical restructuring.
Investors and global capital are beginning to take notice. Foreign demand for US debt has waned, with China and Japan significantly reducing their Treasury holdings. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is trapped. If it raises rates to combat inflation, it exacerbates the debt crisis. If it lowers rates, it risks unleashing another speculative bubble, but central banks tend to lower rates when they see a recession looming. There is no way out without structural reform.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Canada has agreed to fund woke programs abandoned by USAID. As the nation grapples with a barely functioning government and cost of living crisis, the Canadian government is funding what it believes to be a top priority – implementing LGBTQ programs in a Muslim nation.
Canada’s Minister of International Development, Ahmed Hussen, announced that the government would send C$272.1 million to Bangladesh and the Indo-Pacific region. “Canada continues to fiercely strengthen our long-lasting friendship with Bangladesh and the wider Indo-Pacific region with our long-standing people-to-people ties,” Hussen said in a statement. “By supporting vulnerable communities’ healthcare services, empowering women and addressing climate change, we are creating a brighter tomorrow for the global community.”
Bangladesh never asked for this funding. A primarily Muslim nation does not want “gender-responsive inclusive education” or “community resilience through locally-led inclusive adaptation.” Over 91% of the population there follows Islamic teachings that certainly do not align with the woke narrative that the liberals are forcing on the world. The money will likely be funneled through an NGO per usual and land in the pockets of pompous bureaucrats who believe they are saving the world.
Bangladesh does not even support same-sex marriage or civil partnerships. In fact, homosexuality is ILLEGAL in Bangladesh, and breaking the law could result in life imprisonment or death. These programs are placing people in extreme danger. There are no inclusive or safe spaces for members of the LGBTQ community in Bangladesh, and it is wrong to provide people with a false sense of security.
Leave it to the West to enter a foreign nation and force them to adopt a new moral code. The US will no longer fund these pointless woke programs through corrupt USAID, but Carney is willing to pick up the very expensive tab that comes with virtue signaling. Canadians should be outraged that their government is spending hundreds of millions of public funds on programs that benefit no one.
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