Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Sep 19 2025

Coffee Prices on the Rise


Posted originally on Sep 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Coffee

Coffee prices are the latest grocery item troubling American consumers. The United States is the world’s largest importer of coffee, but produces less than 0.1% of all coffee for domestic consumption, importing over $8.2 billion (1.6 metric tons) of coffee last year alone. The average retail price of coffee spiked 21% in the past year, marking the sharpest rise since the late 1990s.

Tariffs are certainly part of the problem. Brazil produces around 37% of the world’s coffee, but now faces a 50% tariff on coffee beans. The average price of Brazilian coffee now sits around $6 per pound. Brazil also experienced a depleted harvest in 2024-25 due to drought and unfavorable weather conditions. The harvest was 9% beneath traditional levels. Global production rose by 4.3 million bags, but was offset by lower stocks, and prices remained high. The US spent $1.41 billion last year on Brazilian coffee alone, and a 50% tariff in addition to increased prices is causing grocers and retailers to raise prices.

Brazil and Colombia primarily focus on Arabica beans, with Colombia being America’s second-highest importer. In far contrast to Brazil, Colombia’s tariff sits at 10%. Still, the US purchased $1.4 billion in coffee beans from Colombia last year and any levy will be felt by consumers. Colombia’s 2024-25 coffee harvest was extremely robust at 13.2 million bags, a 23% increase from the previous year. Farmers believe production will fall by 5.3% in the coming harvest due to weakening La Nina conditions and heavy rain.

Vietnam supplies 17% of the world’s coffee, but the US mainly relies on South America for imports. Vietnam’s tariff sits at 20% and many roasters have complained that this is affecting their bottom line. Same with Indonesia, which has a 19-32% levy.

Brazilian coffee exports to the US have fallen by nearly 46% since tariffs were imposed. While the US consumed 15% of Brazilian coffee exports, Germany was close behind at 14% and has surpassed the US to become the top buyer. It is undeniable that tariffs on Brazil have caused a spike in US coffee prices, which has been exacerbated by a weak harvest.

Sep 19 2025

Chicago’s Pension Funds are Nearly Insolvent – Incoming $28m Bailout


Posted originally on Sep 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Chicago’s money trees are shedding their autumn layers with a new multi-million dollar government payout package for underfunded public pensions. City officials approved a short-term bailout of the Firemen’s Annuity & Benefit Fund to the tune of $28 million to avoid forced asset sales. That is merely the tip of the iceberg, as Chicago’s pension debt has risen 15% over the past five years to an utterly unsustainable $36 billion.

Property taxes currently fund 80% of the city’s pension fund, but are not enough to sufficiently meet payouts. The average pension fund ideally has a funding level of around 70%, and funding beneath 40% is considered nearly insolvent. In Chicago, the top four public pension funds (fire, police, municipal, and laborers), along with the teachers’ pension fund, have a backing ratio between 24% to 43%, with the combined debt now exceeding $53 billion—all of Chicago’s public pension funds have gone bust. Reform measures have been bypassed for years to the point of no return.

Chicago’s pension system carries a debt larger than that of 44 states. Seven Chicago-area pension funds are among the top 10 worst-funded plans in the country. The city already allocates up to 20% of its annual budget toward pensions. Taxpayers are expected to meet all shortfalls, but again, the current level of taxation is not enough to cover the gap.

Lawmakers claim there was a mere system error. Property tax bills were expected to be sent out in June, but will not reach taxpayers until October. The $28 million is intended to act as a temporary band-aid, but the city is almost guaranteed to ask for additional loans and bailouts because the frozen funds are NOT the problem. These funds are a Ponzi scheme, robbing Peter to pay Paul, but the jig is up.

Chicago

Lawmakers recently passed a bill to provide additional pay to Chicago’s retired firefighters and police officers. Politicians are permitted to pass bills to secure votes without actually having a plan in place. The city’s pension bill will rise to $2.76 billion by 2026. There is no money for other public services. Chicago has lost its ability to remain competitive as capital is fleeing increased levies.

Chicago’s overall property tax levy more than doubled in a decade, expanding from $860 million in 2014 to $1.77 billion in 2024. Pension costs directly have risen sixfold over that ten-year span from $478 million in 2014 to $2.75 billion in 2024. The city has redirected every penny collected from property taxes since 2014 into these failing funds, but the pension obligation has surpassed 160% of the annual property tax revenue.

The blame falls on the people rather than the failed politicians. Mayor Brandon Johnson proposed increasing property taxes by $300 million for the current fiscal year, which would mark the largest spike in property taxes in the city’s history. The measure was shot down by the City Council who instead plans to generate $165.5 million with additional taxes and fees in other domains.

In 2021, Mayor Lori Lightfoot demanded a $93.9 million increase in property taxes. Johnson actually campaigned against that measure, and Lightfoot was pressured to drop the tax hike to $42.7 million in 2023. Johnson was elected over Lightfoot for pretending to care about constituents and promising to lower tax burdens.

Their approach has failed. 41% of property taxes were injected into these broken pension funds in 2014 and increased to 80% in 2024. Property taxes more than doubled in that timeframe, but it is nowhere near enough to solve this crisis. Politicians will continue to rob the people with excessive levies to maintain the Ponzi scheme for as long as possible. It is only a matter of time before the city is unable to pay retirees.

The Illinois Constitution does not permit cities to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. The state has historically blocked any cuts to payouts regardless of liquidity. The city may one day be forced to beg for a federal bailout, which would force all Americans to pay for decades of reckless mismanagement by financially illiterate politicians.

Sep 19 2025

The 4th Monkey


Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

4th monkey
Sep 18 2025

Fed Rate Cuts – All About Jobs


Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

US Unemployment Y Arrary 12 10 24

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower rates by 25 bps at the September meeting, citing “that downside risks to employment have risen.” I reported in December 2024 that the computer had forecast a decline in employment during the incoming Trump Administration.

Based on the most recent data, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers remains steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000, and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in those two months.

Unemployment began to rise during the Biden Administration. In fact, not a single job in the private sector was created during the Biden Administration. People blame Trump’s deportation and DOGE efforts for a declining workforce, but that is certainly not the problem. Data indicates that citizens are beginning to rapidly fill roles once taken by migrants. Tariffs are not the problem either, as companies are not hiring for the short term.

Unemployment Y 8 2 24

Workforce softness often leads to lower rates as the Fed mistakenly believes that cheaper borrowing costs will ignite business investment, consumer spending, and strengthen businesses to the point that they need additional employees. Borrowing costs are not the reason why companies are not hiring. CONFIDENCE is the problem, as businesses do not foresee expansion in the near-term, as consumers are grappling with massive debt and an increased cost of living.

The number of unemployed Americans now outnumbers available job openings. Data from July show 7.24 million unemployed Americans compared to 7.18 million job openings, marking the first time that the unemployed have outnumbered the number of available jobs since April 2021. Companies are outsourcing work to places like India or places where humans work with automated AI. Rising wages and regulations, topped with inflation and ever-rising taxes, have created an unfavorable business environment.

Companies are not looking to expand when they are working to stay afloat. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future.

We have a Directional Change in 2026, which is an important near-term turning point. Look forward, and we see 2032 as a Panic Cycle with Directional Changes. The 2029/2030 period looks to be dominated by turmoil. Based on the model, unemployment will spike in the next year to nearly 7%. We are nowhere near Great Depression levels, but there will be a notable uptick in unemployment, coinciding with Panic Cycles globally in nearly every market.

Sep 18 2025

French Pensioners Earn More than Working Adults


Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Pension Crisis

The average French pensioner receives a larger payout than working-aged adults. France has one of the highest replacement rate packages of any OECD nation at around 74% of average earnings. The French government spends an astounding 14% of GDP on the unsustainable pension system.

The average pension in France is around €1,626 gross per month, and pensioners earn around 2% more than the working adults propping up those pensions. The average American pensioner earns about a sixth less than working adults, UK retirees earn about a fifth less, while Australians earn around a third less than their working counterparts, according to Fortune. The amount demanded by retirees has increased proportionally over recent years, as have taxes on the working public, who now pay 8.55% of their income into the pension system.

Widespread pension reform protests took place in 2023 when we saw protesters attempt to burn down the BlackRock office in Paris after the retirement age was raised from 62 to 64. “The meaning of this action is quite simple. We went to the headquarters of BlackRock to tell them: the money of workers, for our pensions, they are taking it,” a protestor told a CNN affiliate. The protest was organized and the message was clear. The Parisians are not allowing government mismanagement to change their retirement plans. They have been promised an easy retirement and paid into the system. The government has been unable to fulfill its promises and the people perceive any reforms as an unfair betrayal.

The deficit for pensions is estimated to grow to €15 billion by 2035 and then to around €30 billion a couple of years later. The European Union requires member states to maintain a budget deficit below 3% but only 17 of the 27 members have met that target. French Economy Minister Eric Lombard is eager to lower the public deficit, aiming for 5.4% of GDP in 2025, followed by 3% in 2029.

France is facing a fiscal crisis of its own making. The government has consistently failed to address the core structural issues, instead relying on higher taxes and superficial spending cuts, which only serve to undermine economic growth. The public deficit, now surpassing 5.6% of GDP, is spiraling out of control, and the government’s projections to bring it under the EU’s arbitrary 3% threshold by 2029 are nothing more than wishful thinking. History has shown that governments never truly cut spending—they merely shift the burden through taxation, stifling private sector expansion.

Cover Pension Crisis

This is why politicians want war with Russia as a diversion. They desperately need an excuse in the face of a crumbling monetary system. No one is buying government debt. The solution is to rob the pension funds to eliminate the need to issue bonds to cover expenses. That move will only undermine confidence in the EU and result in further civil unrest. Negative interest rates have robbed savers of income since 2014, but the world refuses to move away from Keynesian economics.

France and the rest of the Western world have a growing aging population paired with a massive decline in birth rates. These nations attempted to open borders to compensate for the lack of workers, but instead, the public became saddled with more debt as they were forced to pay for the newcomers.

Nothing is more inflationary than war, and Macron is eager to send off French troops to Ukraine as he closely aligns with Brussels to spur on the next major war. Confidence will decline, capital will flee, and interest expenditures will continue to rise. France risks a debt crisis that will only accelerate the collapse of the EU’s financial system. As I’ve warned before, the trend is clear: governments refuse to reform until they are left with no choice. The question is not if, but when, France will face the reckoning of its fiscal mismanagement.

Sep 18 2025

Bolsonaro Fined for Insulting a Hairstyle


Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Bolsonaro Brazil

Jair Bolsonaro will spend the rest of his life in a Brazilian prison for inciting a coup that never happened. Bolsonaro’s public humiliation ritual is far from over as the establishment is using him as an example for anyone who dares to voice a dissenting opinion. The latest ruling determined that the former president must pay R$1m ($188,435.55 USD) for insulting a hairstyle, which the courts deemed racist.

The federal court of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul examined a statement Bolsonaro made in 2021 when he insulted a black man by calling his afro a “breeding ground for cockroaches.” Insulting? Certainly. Racist? It seems to be a far stretch. The man with the afro told the courts that he did not believe it was a racist remark, and in fact, he had voted for Bolsonaro. He believed that it was a joke. I recall hearing similar sentiments about white men with long hair back in the day. People have been insulting long, “dirty” hairstyles on men for ages.

“Racial offence disguised as jocular remarks or mere jokes, linking Black power hair to insects associated with disgust and dirt, harms the honour and dignity of Black people and reinforces the stigma of inferiority of this population,” said Judge Roger Raupp Rios. The man he allegedly insulted did not feel offended. The establishment wants the people to view the remark as an insult to an entire race of people to further political division and to stifle free speech.

Again, the man did not file charges against Bolsonaro for the poorly worded joke. Public prosecutors and the public defender’s office took it upon themselves to persecute Bolsonaro for that statement and two separate remarks made during a 2021 live stream with supporters in front of the presidential palace. Prosecutors were initially seeking a R$10m fine for perceived “recreational racism.”

The Brazilian government was also ordered by the court to pay R$1m since Bolsonaro was in office at the time. The attack on free speech is global. The establishment is warning the public that they may not speak freely without severe punishment. Something said years ago could be used against you in courts today. Bolsonaro is a 70-year-old man and will likely die in prison for a crime he did not commit. The establishment behind big government is stronger than most could imagine.

Sep 18 2025

Fed Cuts 25BPS


Posted originally on Sep 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Federal Reserve Bank

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, setting the new target range at 4 percent to 4.25 percent. The Fed statement was clear, with one dissenter, Stephen Miran, who recently joined.

“Recent indicators suggest that the growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” the FOMC said in a statement.

The market was widely expecting a 25 basis point cut in rates, as our computer has been forecasting for months that any cut would be in September, not before. However, there were the typical groups of questionable analysts touting that a 50 basis point cut could lead to a more significant market rally.

With the prospect of war on the horizon and a sovereign debt crisis brewing in the EU, there are realistic expectations for a continued decline. The risk is that Trump will interfere in the Fed, leading to a loss of confidence worldwide, which would result in unrealistic interest policy into early 2026. There remains the risk of another cut during the next quarter.

Fed Discoint CBDR Q 9 17 25
Sep 17 2025

Romania Accuses Georgescu of Attempted Coup


Posted originally on Sep 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

2025_03_10_12_26_16_Romania_Georgescu_supporters_turn_violent_over_election_ban

Political warfare is the new tool of the establishment. Jair Bolsonaro was permanently silenced, indicted for inciting a coup that never occurred, and sentenced to 27 years imprisonment. Călin Georgescu of Romania has become the establishment’s latest victim as he stands trial for inciting yet another coup that never occurred.

Brussels determined that the vote of the Romanian people must be ignored. The European Court of Human Rights upheld the annulment of the results of the first presidential election. Unelected judges determined that Romania’s election results were null because they did not like the ruling. The government then acted perplexed when people took to the streets to protest.

Calin_Georgescu Barred from Electrion 3 9 25

The second election on May 18, 2025, was permitted to take place WITHOUT Calin Georgescu. Millions of Romanians supported his presidential bid, but he was not pre-approved by the establishment. Anyone “anti-war” is now “pro-Russian” and a threat to the ultimate goal of creating World War III to usher in the dawn of a new world order. The main reason that Georgescu has been silenced is his unwillingness to participate in neocon war games.

“What is happening now in Romania gains no reaction abroad, no reaction from the United States. They don’t understand what is going on here, because if they use Romania as a door for a war, what to be next? We don’t need war; this is my point,” Georgescu said, TASS reported. He said it loud and clear — THIS IS NOT OUR WAR! Georgescu is against collaborating with NATO to wage World War III, as are the Romanian people, who DO NOT WANT WAR! Tens of thousands took to the streets to beg their now UNELECTED officials to hear their voices.

Similar to Bolsonaro, who was barred from re-election, Georgescu retained support from his core base. The establishment needs to silence him to eliminate any dissent. Prosecutor General Alex Florența determined Georgescu was “the beneficiary of Russia’s hybrid war actions,” including disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks. The establishment blames Russian meddling for election results that align with the people over the neocon globalists.

Georgescu knew his life was at risk. In May 2025, he agreed to step away from politics to focus on his family. Yet, the establishment believes he must stand trial for allegedly planning to overturn the results of the election. No coup occurred. No election was overturned. The establishment is showing its hand—it’s scared and sees the rapid public shift toward nationalism and anti-war sentiment. If the people protest the results of an election, their candidate of choice will be blamed for attempting a coup. Similar to conspiracy, no crime needs to actually occur. We will see an increase in political warfare as the people increasingly lose trust in government.

Sep 17 2025

The Baltic Defense Line


Posted originally on Sep 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Baltic Defence Line

The Baltic Defense Line established by Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania has become the largest fortification effort in Europe since World War II. The multi-layered defensive installation includes anti-tank obstacles, surveillance systems, trenches, and bunkers. The “East Shield” is intended to protect these nations, and therefore Europe, from Russian invasion, which they believe is inevitable.

Estonia announced that it has begun construction of a 40-kilometer trench along its border with Russia. Other Baltic States, such as Lithuania and Latvia, have constructed “dragon’s teeth” or anti-tank barriers that act as large pyramid-shaped concrete obstacles for armored vehicles.

The three Baltic states will each install a minimum of 600 bunkers along the border. The 600-mile-wide project is expected to take up to ten years to complete. “[Vladimir] Putin is not going to let us wait those 10 years,” said Gabrielius Landsbergis, who served as Lithuania’s foreign minister until November. “The most dangerous time for the Baltics will be immediately after a ceasefire in Ukraine,” he told The Telegraph.

dragonteeth

The new neocon tale states that a ceasefire with Ukraine would cause a world war. To the neocons, a ceasefire would give Russia more time to regroup, rearm, and attack NATO nations. Danish Intelligence reported that Moscow could “fight a local war in a country bordering Russia,” and in as little as two years, the nation will “be ready for a regional war against several countries in the Baltic Sea region.” By 2030, Danish intelligence believes Russia will engage in “a large-scale war” in Europe.

Now the Baltic states are spending a minimum of £60 million each to implement this Baltic Defense Line. “We must be able to hold the line, make sure Russia does not get inside, but we must also be able to take the fight to the enemy,” declared Raimond Kaljulaid, the head of Estonia’s delegation to NATO.

Russia has no motive to invade the Baltics unless NATO provokes it to do so. Moscow’s strategic concerns lie elsewhere. But NATO must keep expanding the conflict, because without Russia as the eternal enemy, the alliance has no purpose. The wall is being built not because of military necessity, but because the neocons want perpetual confrontation. The Baltic Defense Line is political theatre for the masses to believe that Europe is protecting itself against Russian threats, when in reality, the neocons in Europe have been planning to wage war against Russia at the nearest opportunity.

Sep 17 2025

Thailand Thinking About Taxing Gold?


Posted originally on Sep 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Thai_Baht M Tech 9 16 25

QUESTION: Marty, here in Thailand, aside from freezing 3 million people’s accounts and bending to the OECD to hunt taxes for the Europeans, now we have the central bank is talking about imposing a tax on trading gold because of the right in the baht. Is Thailand committing economic suicide?

FJ

Thailand Central Bank

ANSWER: It appears that the Baht will peak against the dollar, perhaps here in September. Arguing to tax gold because of the rise in the currency is on par with the markets. We still show a Panic Cycle in 2026 for Thailand. The combination of these decisions and the tensions with Cambodia does not project peace and harmony for Thailand into 2026.