Category World Economic Form
London Court Rules 1MBD Hearing Will Be Public
Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics
Re-Posted Nov 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Malaysia won a MAJOR victory in a London court that will allow public hearings in the notorious 1MDB case where Goldman Sachs facilitated what is alleged to be the fraud of the century. In this case, Abu Dhabi’s state investment fund is in a legal battle over how billions of dollars intended for Malaysia’s economic development was stolen in a deal orchestrated by Goldman Sachs.
In turn, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund filed a lawsuit against Goldman Sachs precisely on the Pi Target, Wednesday (Nov 21), for allegedly conspiring against the Middle Eastern fund to further a criminal scheme by Malaysia’s scandal-plagued 1MDB. There have been a number of people indicted in Goldman Sachs and the CEO, Blankfein, had to step down ahead of schedule.
The real test of just how corrupt the American courts are has been how the SEC defends Goldman Sachs and the US courts in New York City. The Center for Economic Policy and Research on Nov. 2018 wrote about how Goldman Sachs controls the SEC: “How Goldman Still Holds Sway at the SEC”
Goldman Sachs has been sued for $510 million in New York State Court, which is at least more viable than federal court. I wrote back in 2015 about this scandal we all knew about behind the curtain. I wrote that the financial mess even touched the UAE in the mix through IPIC which was established back in the 1980s to focus on energy investments. In 2016 I wrote that the Federal Reserve was preparing an enforcement action against Goldman Sachs related to confidential government information that was leaked from the Fed to one of its bankers. I also wrote that Swiss prosecutors said they were helping the US with the investigation. The Swiss also opened their own criminal proceedings in August 2015, against two former officials of the fund on a string of corruption charges. Their investigation has since been extended to other officials as well.
The question is WHY did the Manhattan Federal prosecutors sit on their hands? Why did it take Brooklyn to bring charges? This seems to be typically New York, New York. The real motto: You don’t shit where you eat. So they protect Goldman at all costs.
Categories: Politics, Rule of Law
The Rising Tension in Europe for Civil Unrest
Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest
Re-Posted Nov 27, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hello!
More and more people in western Europe are talking about the coming civil war between the Muslims/Arabs and the Europeans. Guillaume Faye has even written a book about it. I personally believe that it will break out between 2025 and 2050 and that it will start in France. Me and my friends are looking for some place to go before it starts. We are looking at eastern Europe. Have your computer anything on this coming civil war?
Thank you for your hard work.
IR
ANSWER: Economics is at the root of the crisis. In 1844, tensions rose and there were gun battles on the streets in Philadelphia against the Irish Catholics. This occurred in the middle of a depression from the Panic of 1837 with the sovereign debt defaults by states. Religion was involved to some extent, but the argument became that the Irish immigrants were taking the jobs and were willing to work for less.
In this case, the refugees get handouts from the state and then the state raises taxes on the citizens. This still is fueling the tensions and there is indeed a risk of civil conflicts and separatist movements. This is also the period where we should expect more anti-establishment parties rising because people are losing their lifestyles thanks to the career politicians who have created an economic catastrophe.
Germany to Separate North v South by 2030
Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM
Re-Posted Nov 18, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION:
Martin,
Following the recent State elections in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia which reflected voter disillusionment and discontent with the CDU and SPD how do you view the German political scene to the 2021 Federal election?
JR
REPLY: Bavaria came into existence in 1806 when Napoleon abolished the Holy Roman Empire. It was at this time that Bavaria’s land area was greatly expanded. Our cyclical model on Bavaria suggests that it will separate from northern Germany by 2030. This will be inspired by the austerity policies that have devastated the local economy. However, this will only be augmented by the difference in religion between Protestant v Catholic. That was also a factor in why Bavaria joined with Austria, which was also Catholic, in the Austro-Prussian War that resulted in Bavaria’s defeat in 1866. Bavaria had to cede several Lower Franconian districts to Prussia.
The Bavarian conservative party, the CSU, lost its absolute majority once the Economic Confidence Model turned in 2017 during the subsequent election in 2018. Meanwhile, the Greens emerged as the second-largest political force in southern Germany. Additionally, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is impacting the municipal level and the austerity policies imposed by the north continue to brew civil discontent. The loss of the CSU in Germany undermined the survivability of Merkel which instigated her demise.
The civil unrest will turn upward sharply when this current wave concludes 2021.32. The eventual separation of Germany will most likely unfold by 2030 at the earliest.
The Coming British Elections
Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Re-Posted Nov 15, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I know you were rather close to Sir Alan and Prime Minister Thatcher. I also know you are close to a number of politicians here in Britain. I was at your Edinburgh conference where they introduced you as a seventh-generation Edinburgh Scotsman I found very interesting rather than an American. You are famous here in political circles for many forecasts with the latest being the BREXIT victory. Do you have any insight into the December election? It is getting crazy here with two former Labour MPs declaring that they planned to vote for the Conservative Party because they said Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was unfit to be prime minister. Then Tom Watson quit because of Corbyn’s policies over Brexit and his anti-Semitism. But the Conservatives seem to be less reliable as well. I think Nigel Farage may surprise a lot of people in this election. What does Socrates say?
GB
ANSWER: That is an interesting question. It is hard to map because of such a diverse breakdown in the “other” category. There is no question that Nigel’s party came out on top in the EU general elections. As we can see from the chart at the top, both Labour and the Conservatives are declining and there is a rise in both the Liberal Dems and “other” against the establishment so to speak. This is part of the global trend many outside the USA call the Trump Revolution. They are not referring to something that Trump did himself. Instead, this is a global trend against established political parties everywhere.
My advice to Johnson would be to cut a deal with Nigel’s Brexit Party. There is a trend underway that is bigger than most suspect. I know Nigel has no designs on being Prime Minister. However, fate will determine the roll of the dice. Nigel may end up in a position he did not wish to be in.
We will try to refine the models to do a proper forecast. Keep in mind that the “other” category is due for a strong showing and this will most likely be Nigel’s party. Also keep in mind that his Brexit Party does not hold any seats in Parliament at this time. That will change.
New sun-driven cooling period of Earth ‘not far off’
The Risk of War between Pakistan & India
Armstrong Economics Blog/India
Re-Posted Nov 8, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your model which forecasts the start of rising tensions between Pakistan and India for 2019 has been absolutely correct. What do you see now going forward?
KED
ANSWER: The history of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan began on August 14, 1947 (1947.619) when the country became an independent nation within the British Commonwealth as the result of the partition of India. This has been a divide based upon religion and there lies the threat of war. The target for 2019 was 72 years from the beginning of the modern state of Pakistan. The threat here is one of nuclear war between the two and the impact that could have on the global environment. Make no mistake about it, reason takes a secondary position to religion.
The target year of 2019 was the beginning. The tensions will continue to rise and reach a peak in 2025. If there is a risk of a nuclear war, that would probably be at its greatest point by January 2025. The ancient history of the region is very complicated. It has been part of many overlapping various empires from Greek to Indo.
Europe Moving to Worldwide Income Tax & International Wealth Tax
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Re-Posted Nov 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: As I understand you’re writings, the € is not a good currency to be in. I’m South African and stay in the Netherlands for 13 years now. I’ve been following you’re advice not to be in €’s and therefore I only have a house here that can be seen as a € investment. I still have an equity portefeulje in South Africa with a 70% exposure to rand-denominated offshore investments(global, with a big USA component). I am however experiencing 2 problems now: 1 The Netherlands tax on worldwide income: not just the growth on the investment portefeulje, but the whole portefeulje! The result: growth on the investment portefeulje are lost due to the taxation in the Netherlands. 1.2% of all the capital are taken and tax at 30%. From 2022 it will be 5.4% at 33%. 2 The instability in South Africa and push for socialism put me at risk to lose the investment portefeulje. The law is very vague, but actually indicates that “stuff”can be taken if it’s in the best interest of the people and country. It only takes the wrong government … From 1 March 2020 South Africa also wants to tax on worldwide income and if your tax rate is lower than 45%, you will pay the difference to South Africa.
Where do you go to keep you’re hard, earned money safe from governments? I’m thinking about selling a large portion of the investment portefeulje and opening bank accounts in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland just to keep money safe till after the market crash, and then to invest again into the equity market. I also remember that you’ve said that the bank guarantee would only be for x1 €100 000 and not for every €100 000 that you keep in European banks. The European bail-inns are also a big risk. Do you have any other suggestions? By the way: gold is also taxed here in the Netherlands(not just on the gains)
RG
ANSWER: The ONLY place for a European to have a bank account right now is the United States. The list of countries that will report on what you are doing (CRS= Common Reporting Standard) and what you have is as follows:
As of 2018, the signing nations to avoid are:
Albania, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Australia, Austria, The Bahamas, Bahrain, Belize, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica, Ghana, Grenada, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Marshall Islands, Macao (China), Malaysia, Mauritius, Monaco, Nauru, New Zealand, Pakistan, Panama, Qatar, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Samoa, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sint Maarten, Switzerland, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Vanuatu
You will notice that the United States and Thailand are two notable exceptions. Right now, they are the only places that are safe for a European. Scandinavia is not on the list, but Sweden has committed to join the CRS. There is a serious risk in Scandinavia.
Make no mistake about it. Europe is looking to also tax worldwide income. The Netherlands has a worldwide income tax form. The top income tax bracket in the Netherlands is 51.95%, plus there is a 30% flat tax on investment income. If you have a residential property in the Netherlands, you must be careful. The Netherlands tax courts look to whether there are “durable” ties of a personal nature with the Netherlands. That excludes pure business, but ties of a personal nature such as the maintenance of a residential property play a more defining role. Residence abroad does not, by itself, exclude the possibility of being considered a tax resident in the Netherlands.
Europeans MUST realize that Worldwide Income Tax is just around the corner. If you have substantial wealth, you may want to look at getting another citizenship. It is going to get much worse there in Europe between now and 2032. You will find the push to impose a wealth tax is fully underway. Switzerland already has an International Wealth Tax which is a levy on the total value of personal assets, including bank deposits, real estate, assets in insurance and pension plans, ownership of unincorporated businesses, financial securities, and personal trusts. You have to declare everything you own around the entire world. Then, because Switzerland is part of the CRS, they will share that with every other country. Typically, liabilities (primarily mortgages and other loans) are deducted from an individual’s wealth.
As we move toward 2032, the unfunded liabilities will explode and governments will become EXTREMELY Draconian and impose both the Worldwide Income Tax and the International Wealth Tax. There is no hope; this trend leads only to the destruction of Western Culture. They are only concerned about what is immediately in front of their nose. Be mentally prepared to simply walk away from fixed assets as was the case when Rome collapsed.
Categories: The H
Nine American Women and Children Massacred by Mexican Drug Cartel, President Trump Offers U.S. Military Assistance to Mexican Government….
November 5, 2019
Last month the Mexican government backed-down from a drug cartel in Culiacan, releasing the two sons of drug lord El Chappo after the cartel overwhelmed the Mexican military during an attempted arrest. The cartel defeated the Mexican military.
Today, three American mothers and six children (4 boys, 2 girls) were brutally murdered in northern Mexico by drug cartels prompting President Trump to offer military assistance to Mexican President Lopez-Obrador in the ongoing struggle against cartel violence.
.
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Gunmen killed nine women and children in the bloodiest attack on Americans in Mexico for years, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to offer to help the neighboring country wipe out drug cartels believed to be behind the ambush.
All nine people killed in Monday’s daytime attack at the border of Chihuahua and Sonora belonged to the Mexican-American LeBaron family, members of a breakaway Mormon community that settled in northern Mexico’s hills and plains decades ago.
A video posted on social media showed the charred and smoking remains of a vehicle riddled with bullet holes that was apparently carrying the victims on a dirt road when the attack occurred.
[…] A relative, Julian LeBaron, called the incident a massacre and said some family members were burned alive.
In a text message to Reuters he wrote that four boys, two girls and three women were killed. Several children who fled the attack were lost for hours in the countryside before being found, he said. He said it was unclear who carried out the attack.
[…] Trump tweeted that he would await a call from Lopez Obrador, urging him to accept U.S. assistance.
Lopez Obrador said he would call Trump on Tuesday about ways to cooperate on security but rejected what he called any foreign government intervention.
“I’ll speak with President Trump to thank him for his support, and to see if in cooperation agreements there’s the possibility of getting help,” he told a news conference. “I don’t think we need the intervention of a foreign government to deal with these cases,” he added.
[…] “War is irrational. We believe in peace,” said Lopez Obrador, a leftist who took office last December. (read more)
It’s starting to look like President Lopez-Obrador is a cartel manager.
Build the wall.
BREXIT – Live Decline & Fall of Western Society
Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Re-Posted Nov 4, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologized on Sunday to Conservatives for failing to take the U.K. out of the European Union by Oct. 31st. Nigel Farage said he won’t personally run for a seat in Parliament. The plan to leave by Oct. 31st was blocked by the Remain crowd who refuse to accept any democratic process because they lost the vote. This is what is behind the decline and fall of western civilization. The losing crowd to any election is unwilling to ever accept a loss and move on. We have entered the second half of the Economic Confidence Model wave where governments simply lose all-purpose. The Remain crowd prevented a BREXIT without a divorce deal. They required Johnson to seek a BREXIT extension. The EU has granted a three-month Brexit extension until Jan. 31st, 2020.
Johnson has pushed for an early national election on Dec. 12th in which he hopes to get a more BREXIT-friendly Parliament. Nigel Farage has, in turn, pushed for his BREXIT Party to team up in a coalition with Johnson’s Conservatives for the December election. However, Johnson has so far refused the offer. That seems to be a wrong decision on Johnson’s part. This has resulted in Farage vowing that his party will contest every seat in England, Scotland and Wales against the Conservatives unless Johnson drops his BREXIT agreement, which Farage and his party believe is far worse than a no-deal BREXIT. Nigel told the BBC he will travel within Britain to support some 600 BREXIT Party candidates rather than by seeking a seat for himself. It is ironic that probably the best-qualified person to lead BREXIT is Farage, but he told the BBC: “I don’t want to be in politics for the rest of my life.”
Categories:
Centinel2012 